Mark Martin is ready to break winless streak

Phoenix International Raceway -- 04/18/2009

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Thursday Apr 16 2009 2:27pm

The Sprint Cup Series returns to the track this weekend for a Saturday night showdown in Avondale, Arizona. The Phoenix International Raceway is the site of the next race.

At Texas two weeks ago, Jeff Gordon snapped his 47 race winless streak. Kevin Harvick and Mark Martin are next in line to break long-time winless skids.

Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon have won the last four races held at the 1-mile oval. Clearly, they are the favorites for this weekend. Nevertheless, their Hendrick Motorsports teammates Mark Martin and Dale Earnhardt Jr are perhaps the most hungry drivers in the Sprint Cup garage.

The Roush Fenway Racing group hopes to rebound following the race at Texas where pit road errors ended any chances of victory for Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth, and Carl Edwards.

1. 5-Mark Martin: 15-1 odds

Mark Martin has not won since October of 2005, so he is no doubt one of the hungry wolves in Saturday’s race. Hendrick Motorsports has won the last four races at Phoenix, and Martin nearly won this race last year while driving for Dale Earnhardt Inc. Martin was leading late in the race when he was forced to pit for fuel with less than eleven laps to go. Look for Martin to possibly win his first race in three and a half years.

In his last four starts at Phoenix, Martin has scored finishes of sixth, twelfth, fifth, and fourteenth.

In twenty-four career starts at Phoenix, Martin has earned one win, nine top five finishes, and fifteen top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 9.4.

2. 48-Jimmie Johnson: 9-2 odds

Jimmie Johnson will attempt to win his third consecutive race at the Phoenix International Raceway. The track is short and flat, which is right up Johnson’s alley. He led 217 of 313 laps at the 1-mile track last fall en route to his third straight win at the track. Johnson will once again be one of the drivers to beat at Phoenix. In fact, he is the odds-on favorite to win the Subway Fresh Fit 500.

In his last four starts at Phoenix, Johnson has three wins and a fourth place finish.

In eleven career starts at Phoenix, Johnson has three wins, six top five finishes, and nine top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 5.5, which is highest among all active drivers.

3. 2-Kurt Busch: 12-1 odds

Kurt Busch finished second in the last race at Phoenix. He also won this race in 2005. Busch and his Penske Racing team are currently third in the Sprint Cup championship standings, and they seem to be ready to emerge as a weekly contender. A noticeable pattern with Kurt Busch in 2009 is he is much better when he qualifies near the front. If he does this weekend, he could be a threat to win.

In his last four starts at Phoenix, Kurt Busch has placed finishes of eighteenth, twelfth, twenty-third, and second.

In twelve career starts at Phoenix, Kurt Busch has one win, three top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 13.2.

4. 24-Jeff Gordon: 6-1 odds

No other driver in the Sprint Cup garage has momentum on their side quite like Jeff Gordon. He won his first race at Texas two weeks ago, and he leading the championship standings by a hefty margin. Gordon won this race two years ago, and he is no stranger to winning back to back races. In 2007, he won back to back races twice. Expect Jeff Gordon to challenge his Hendrick Motorsports teammates for the victory on Saturday night.

In his last four starts at Phoenix, Gordon has scored finishes of first, tenth, forty-first, and thirteenth.

In twenty career starts at Phoenix, Jeff Gordon has one win, eight top five finishes, and fifteen top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.8.

5. 18-Kyle Busch: 6-1 odds

Following his win at Bristol last month, Kyle Busch’s statistics have significantly fallen off. He finished twenty-fourth at Martinsville, and eighteenth at Texas. It is inevitable that will snap out of this mini-slump this weekend. He won at Phoenix as a rookie in 2005 while he was driving for Hendrick Motorsports. I believe that Kyle Busch will be one of the race-winning contenders this weekend.

In his last four starts at Phoenix, Kyle Busch has scored finishes of seventh, eighth, tenth, and eighth.

In eight career starts at Phoenix, Kyle Busch has one victory, one top five finish, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 14.5.

6. 11-Denny Hamlin: 8-1 odds

The Phoenix International Raceway is Denny Hamlin’s type of track. He always thrives on the flat tracks. He is no doubt one to watch this weekend. After he was nudged out of the way at Martinsville a few weeks ago, you have to believe that Hamlin has a little bit of a chip on his shoulder. If Johnson is in front of Hamlin with just a handful of laps to go, expect a little payback.

In his last four starts at Phoenix, Hamlin has placed finishes of third, sixteenth, third, and fifth.

In seven career starts at Phoenix, Hamlin has scored four top five finishes, and four top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.0.

7. 88-Dale Earnhardt Jr: 20-1 odds

With each passing week, Junior Nation is waiting for their driver to finally quiet the critics with a phenomenal performance. It has yet to happen this season, but this is the perfect place for Earnhardt Jr to get back on track. He owns two wins at the 1-mile facility, and even though they were back in 2003 and 2004, he is still one to watch. He may not challenge his teammates, but he should be a solid top ten contender.

In his last four starts at Phoenix, Earnhardt Jr has posted finishes of ninetheenth, forty-third, seventh, and sixth.

In thirteen career starts at Phoenix, Earnhardt Jr has earned two wins, four top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 17.1.

8. 14-Tony Stewart: 15-1 odds

Based on his last two performances, Tony Stewart is on the cusp of winning his first race as part-owner of Stewart Haas Racing. He finished third at Martinsville and fourth at Texas. Stewart traditionally performs well at Phoenix, so this could be his breakthrough weekend. Expect another solid performance from Stewart and his team.

In his last four starts at Phoenix, Stewart has scored finishes of second, fourth, fourteenth, and twenty-second.

In fourteen career starts at Phoenix, Stewart has one victory, six top five finishes, and eight top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 10.6.

9. 16-Greg Biffle: 15-1 odds

The race at Texas is the ‘one that got away’ for Greg Biffle. After leading 93 laps, it appeared as if he was poised for his first win of 2009. Biffle and his Roush Fenway Racing teammates hope that the pit road gaffes are behind them. Expect Biffle, as well as Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards to run among the top ten at Phoenix on Saturday.

In his last four starts at Phoenix, Biffle has posted finishes of seventeenth, second, ninth, and eleventh.

In ten career starts at Phoenix, Biffle has two top five finishes, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish 15.9.

10. 29-Kevin Harvick: 18-1 odds

Kevin Harvick has not won a race since the 2007 Daytona 500. Before that win, his last win was right here at Phoenix in November of 2006. Harvick won both races at Phoenix in 2006. His team is not as strong as they were in 2006, but Harvick is always a threat at this track. Expect to see Harvick among the frontrunners on Saturday night.

In his last four starts at Phoenix, Harvick has posted finishes of tenth, sixth, nineteenth, and seventh.

In twelve career starts at Phoenix, Harvick has two wins, three top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 13.2.

Also, keep an eye on Matt Kenseth (12-1 odds), Clint Bowyer (18-1 odds), Jeff Burton (30-1 odds), Ryan Newman (60-1 odds), and Carl Edwards (8-1 odds)

Great dark horse picks include Jamie McMurray (30-1 odds), David Reutimann (50-1 odds), Juan Pablo Montoya (100-1 odds), A.J. Allmendinger (100-1 odds), and David Stremme (100-1 odds)

If you think my picks suck, here are the odds maker’s top ten

1. Jimmie Johnson 9-2 odds
2. Jeff Gordon 6-1 odds
3. Kyle Busch 6-1 odds
4. Denny Hamlin 8-1 odds
5. Carl Edwards 8-1 odds
6. Kurt Busch 12-1 odds
7. Matt Kenseth 12-1 odds
8. Tony Stewart 15-1 odds
9. Greg Biffle 15-1 odds
10. Mark Martin 15-1 odds

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