Biffle versus Busch at Darlington

Darlington Raceway -- 05/9/2009

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Thursday May 7 2009 1:23pm

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series makes its annual trip to Darlington, South Carolina, home of the Darlington Raceway. The track is perhaps NASCAR’s most complex tracks to pace, which is why they say it is the track ‘too tough to tame’. Many refer to Darlington as the ‘Lady In Black’. Aside from its convoluted reputation, it is NASCAR’s most storied track, as it has been raced on for six decades. It is the Fenway Park, or the Wrigley Field of NASCAR.

Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle, Jimmie Johnson, and Jeff Burton are all multiple winners at Darlington, and lead the cast of favorites. Nevertheless, Kyle Busch is the defending champion of the race. Additionally, drivers such as Carl Edwards, Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart, and Ryan Newman are hungry for the taste of sweet victory at Darlington.

By the way, it is once again referred to as the Southern 500 for the first time since 2004.

1. 16-Greg Biffle: 9-1 odds

In 2005 and 2006, Greg Biffle owned this track. In 2008, he was again the class of the field before an engine failure relegated him to a 43rd place finish, skewing his finishing average at the ‘Lady In Black’. Biffle is on the Chase for the Championship bubble right now, and this could be the perfect week to distance himself from the drivers chasing him. Expect Biffle to perhaps score his first win of the 2009 season barring any mechanical failures.

In his last four starts at Darlington, Biffle has posted two wins, a fifteenth place finish as well as a 43rd place finish due to an engine failure.

In eight career starts at Darlington, Biffle has two wins, two top five finishes, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 14.8. He has thirteen career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 15.7.

2. 18-Kyle Busch: 9-2 odds

Kyle Busch is the defending winner of this race, as he led a race-high 169 laps. Last year, Busch and Biffle clearly had the cars to beat at Darlington, and this could be the year where the two finally duke it out for the Southern 500 trophy. Busch is coming off of his third win of the season last weekend at Richmond. Since the beginning of the 2008 Sprint Cup season, no other driver has won as much as Busch. He is the odds-on favorite to add another trophy to his mantle.

In his last four starts at Darlington, Kyle Busch has scored finishes of twenty-third, seventh, 37th, and first.

In four career starts at Darlington, Kyle Busch has one win, one top five finish, and two top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 17.0. He has eight career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 16.8.

3. 48-Jimmie Johnson: 6-1 odds

Following two consecutive finishes of thirtieth or worse, Johnson hopes to regain the momentum that suddenly vanished at Talladega two weeks ago. Johnson swept the season series at Darlington in 2004, the last year that Darlington hosted two events. Johnson seldom stays ice cold for too long, so expect him to return to the front of the pack this weekend. As always, Johnson is a smart bet.

In has last four starts at Darlington, Johnson has placed finishes of seventh, fourth, third, and thirteenth.

In ten career starts at Darlington, Johnson has two wins, five top five finishes, and eight top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 7.4. He has thirty career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 10.0.

4. 14-Tony Stewart: 10-1 odds

Darlington is one of the few tracks that Tony Stewart has yet to conquer in his career. The two-time champion will be the first to admit that the along with the Daytona 500, winning at Darlington is perhaps his most coveted victory. He is traditionally fast on NASCAR’s more intricate tracks, and Darlington sure does fit the bill. Stewart has momentum on his side, as he is coming off a second place finish at Richmond last week.

In his last four starts at Darlington, Stewart has posted finishes of tenth, twelfth, sixth, and twenty-first.

In sixteen career starts at Darlington, Stewart is still searching for is first win, but he has scored two top five finishes, and eight top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.5. He has eighteen career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 12.6.

5. 39-Ryan Newman: 25-1 odds

Speaking of momentum, Ryan Newman is one of NASCAR’s hottest drivers at the moment. He finished third at Talladega two weeks ago, and followed it up with a fourth place showing at Richmond a week later. Even during Newman’s dry spell in 2006 to 2008, he was always a factor at the track dubbed ‘Too tough to tame’. Other than Stewart, no other driver is as due for a win at Darlington as Newman.

In his last four starts at Darlington, Newman has scored finishes of fifth, sixth, fourth, and thirty-seventh.

In ten career starts at Darlington, Newman has yet to win, but he has scored five top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 13.3. He has eleven career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 18.0.

6. 2-Kurt Busch: 9-1 odds

Kurt Busch’s first career pole came at Darlington in 2001. Eight years later, he is still searching for his first win at the 1.336-mile facility. Busch has been hot or cold at Darlington throughout his career, mostly cold since joining Penske Racing. However, Busch is easily enjoying his best season since leaving Roush Fenway Racing to replace Rusty Wallace at Penske Racing. Expect a solid performance from the Blue Deuce.

In his last four starts at Darlington, Kurt Busch has struggled with finishes of 37th, nineteenth, twelfth, and twelfth.

In twelve career starts at Darlington, Kurt Busch has scored one top five finish, and four top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 17.6. He has twelve career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 17.7.

7. 99-Carl Edwards: 7-1 odds

After ten races, who would have guessed that Carl Edwards would only have one top five finish. The top five finish came at Atlanta, which is the track that is often compared to Darlington. Edwards always performs well at Darlington every season, so there is no reason to believe that he will struggle. Nevertheless, he has not shown that he can get up and contend for wins in 2009. He may finish in the top five, but my money is on Biffle, Kyle Busch, and Jimmie Johnson.

In his last four starts at Darlington, Edwards has finishes of ninth, 39th, fifth, and second.

In five career starts at Darlington, Edwards has two top five finishes, and four top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.4. He has fourteen career wins on intermediate facilities, and an average finish of 11.2.

8. 24-Jeff Gordon: 7-1 odds

Okay, I know this appears absurd that I have Jeff Gordon listed in eighth at Darlington when he is always a threat to win. There is a method to my madness, however. Firstly, Gordon is not running as well as he was a month ago. Secondly, he still has an ailing back, which could encumber him on Saturday night. This is a long 500-mile affair on one of NASCAR’s most physically demanding tracks. Gordon will be fast early, but I see him fading down the stretch.

In his last four starts at Darlington, Gordon has scored finishes of second, second, first, and third.

In twenty-eight career starts at Darlington, Jeff Gordon owns seven wins, sixteen top five finishes, and nineteen top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.5. He has forty-one career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 11.9.

9. 5-Mark Martin: 15-1 odds

No other driver in this year’s field has as much experience at the tortuous Darlington Raceway as Mark Martin. This track simply fits Martin’s driving style. It is difficult to believe that he only owns one victory at Darlington. Despite only one win, he is always competitive, and there is no reason to believe that he will struggle on Saturday night.

In his last four starts at Darlington, Martin has posted finishes of fourth, eighth, fourteenth, and sixteenth.

In forty-two career starts at Darlington, Martin has one victory, sixteen top five finishes, and twenty-five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.3. He has nineteen career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 12.8.

10. 31-Jeff Burton: 35-1 odds

Jeff Burton has some fond memories of Darlington Raceway, especially in the 1990’s. He won both races in 1999, and he engaged in some exciting duels with Jeff Gordon, most notably the 1997 Southern 500. Burton had his best race of the year last week at Richmond, so expect him to carry that momentum into this weekend.

In his last four starts at Darlington, Burton has placed finishes of 21st, ninth, tenth, and tenth.

In twenty-six career starts at Darlington, Burton has two wins, eight top five finishes, and fifteen top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.5. He has sixteen career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 14.8.

Also keep an eye on Matt Kenseth (20-1 odds), Clint Bowyer (40-1 odds), Kevin Harvick (30-1 odds), Dale Earnhardt Jr (20-1 odds), and Denny Hamlin (12-1 odds)

Great dark horse picks include Sam Hornish Jr (100-1 odds), Juan Pablo Montoya (60-1 odds), David Reutimann (40-1 odds), Casey Mears (100-1 odds), and Martin Truex Jr (25-1 odds)

Check out the odds maker’s top ten

1. Kyle Busch 9-2 odds
2. Jimmie Johnson 6-1 odds
3. Jeff Gordon 7-1 odds
4. Carl Edwards 7-1 odds
5. Kurt Busch 9-1 odds
6. Greg Biffle 9-1 odds
7. Tony Stewart 10-1 odds
8. Denny Hamlin 12-1 odds
9. Mark Martin 15-1 odds
10. Matt Kenseth and Dale Earnhardt Jr 20-1 odds

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