Expect Roush Drivers to Bounce Back at Texas

Texas Motor Speedway -- 04/5/2009

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Thursday Apr 2 2009 11:49am

After two weeks of beating and banging on NASCAR’s half-milers, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series is back in action at the 1.5-mile oval at Texas Motor Speedway. Roush Fenway Racing drivers have enjoyed immense success at this track in the previous seasons. Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, and Matt Kenseth all own victories at Texas, and Mark Martin and Jeff Burton won races at Texas while driving for Roush Fenway Racing earlier in their careers.

The Roush Fenway Racing contingent limped home after struggling at the short tracks, but the cookie cutter venues are their strengths. Expect all five Roushkateers to enjoy solid performances. Of course, you should never count out Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing.

1. 99-Carl Edwards: 5-1 odds

Carl Edwards returns to the track where he won at twice in 2008. He led 123 of 339 laps in the spring race, and 212 of 334 laps in the fall race. Clearly, nobody was able to keep up with Edwards at Texas last year. Thus far, in 2009, it seems as if some of the competition has caught up to Edwards on the intermediate tracks, but he is still the odds-on favorite for this weekend’s Samsung 500.

In his last four starts at Texas, Edwards has two wins, both in 2008, as well as finishes of twelfth and 26th.

In eight career starts at Texas, Edwards has three wins, three top five finishes, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 13.9. He has fourteen career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 11.2.

2. 18-Kyle Busch: 5-1 odds

Kyle Busch shined at Bristol, but not so much at Martinsville. After he was involved in an incident with rookie Scott Speed, and then a blown tire, Busch was unable to recover. He looks to rebound at Texas. He won at Las Vegas, which is a high-speed oval like Texas, but he struggled at Atlanta a week later. Atlanta is considered a sister track to Texas. Busch is a smart bet for this weekend’s race at Texas.

In his last four starts at Texas, Kyle Busch has posted finishes of 37th, fourth, third, and sixth.

In eight career starts at Texas, Kyle Busch has yet to win, but he has scored three top five finishes, and four top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 16.2. He has eight career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 16.8.

3. 17-Matt Kenseth: 12-1 odds

Matt Kenseth is overdue for a strong finish. After winning the season’s first two events, the 2003 Cup champion has fallen off the radar. As the Sprint Cup Series returns to Texas, Kenseth is a solid bet based on his history at the venue, as well as his record of accomplishments on all 1.5-mile facilities throughout his career. You have to believe that it is just a matter of time before Kenseth and the No. 17 group rediscover their February magic.

In his last four starts at Texas, Kenseth has posted finishes of second, second, ninth, and ninth.

In thirteen career starts at Texas, Kenseth has earned one win, five top five finishes, and eight top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 10.1. He has twelve career wins on intermediate ovals, and an average finish of 14.0.

4. 24-Jeff Gordon: 7-1 odds

No one is as overdue for a win as four-time champion Jeff Gordon. His last victory, forty-seven races ago, seems like an eternity. As his fans patiently wait for that victory, finishing in the top five is no longer enough. Gordon and his sizeable fan base are ready for a victory lane celebration. Gordon has never won at Texas, so it would be fitting to end his winless streak at a track he has never conquered.

In his last four starts at Texas, Jeff Gordon has posted finishes of fourth, seventh, 43rd, and second.

In sixteen career starts at Texas, Jeff Gordon has yet to win, but he has posted six top five finishes, and eight top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 16.1. He has forty career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 11.9.

5. 48-Jimmie Johnson: 8-1 odds

Jimmie Johnson is coming off his first win of the 2009 Sprint Cup season. He won the race at Martinsville by using the old chrome horn, knocking Denny Hamlin out of the way. It is an atypical tactic by Johnson, as usually he refrains from aggression on the track. He will be another driver to watch this weekend. In the past, when Johnson wins one race, his next win is only seven days away.

In his last four starts at Texas, Johnson has scored finishes of 38th, first, second, and fifteenth.

In eleven career starts at Texas, Johnson has scored one victory, five top five finishes, and eight top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 9.1. He has thirty career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 10.0.

6. 16-Greg Biffle: 12-1 odds

Like Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle is due for a strong showing. After impressive performances at California and Las Vegas, Biffle encountered some ill fortune at Atlanta and Bristol, taking away potential top ten finishes. At Martinsville, the performance was simply off the mark. He is a former winner at Texas, so expect him to be one of the drivers to beat on Sunday. He may not be the odds-on favorite, but he is one to watch.

In his last four starts at Texas, Biffle has placed finishes of sixth, thirty-third, 39th, and fifth.

In ten career starts at Texas, Biffle has one victory, two top five finishes, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 24.0. He has thirteen career wins on intermediate ovals, and an average finish of 15.9.

7. 2-Kurt Busch: 7-1 odds

Kurt Busch flat out spanked the field at Atlanta last month. The Texas Motor Speedway possesses some of the same characteristics as the Atlanta Motor Speedway, but no two tracks are identical. Atlanta’s surface is more weathered than the surface at Texas, which creates an entirely different feel inside the car. Still, the elder Busch brother will be one of the race-winning contenders.

In his last four starts at Texas, Kurt Busch has posted finishes of eleventh, eighth, 23rd, and 41st.

In twelve career starts at Texas, Kurt Busch has no wins, but he has one top five finish, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 15.3. He has twelve career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 17.9.

8. 33-Clint Bowyer: 20-1 odds

One of the feel good stories of the year is that of Clint Bowyer and the new No. 33 team. He is by far the top performance car in the Richard Childress Racing stables. Expect Bowyer to be among the frontrunners at Texas.

In his last four starts at Texas, Bowyer has placed in finishes of sixteenth, nineteenth, tenth, and fourth.

In six career starts at Texas, Bowyer has two top five finishes, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.2. He has one career win on an intermediate venue, and an average finish 16.4.

9. 11-Denny Hamlin: 18-1 odds

Denny Hamlin is coming off two consecutive second place finishes on the short tracks. Despite the impressive finishes, Hamlin cannot help but feel some sort of disappointment, especially after Martinsville. Hamlin hopes to maintain his momentum at Texas.

In his last four starts at Texas, Hamlin has posted finishes of ninth, 29th, fifth, and seventeenth.

In seven career starts at Texas, Hamlin has two top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.6. He has three career wins on intermediate ovals, and an average finish of 13.9.

10. 14-Tony Stewart: 20-1 odds

The Stewart Haas Racing experiment seems to be working out well as of now. Tony Stewart scored his first top five finish of the season last week and Martinsville. He hopes to follow that up with his first victory at Texas.

In his last four starts at Texas, Stewart has scored finishes of 25th, eleventh, seventh, and sixteenth.

In fourteen career starts at Texas, Stewart has one win, three top five finishes, and eight top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 13.2. He has eighteen career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 12.7.

Also, keep an eye on Mark Martin (20-1 odds), Dale Earnhardt Jr (25-1 odds), Jeff Burton (25-1 odds), Kevin Harvick (20-1 odds), Brian Vickers (20-1 odds), and Kasey Kahne (30-1 odds)

Great dark horse picks include: David Reutimann (60-1 odds), Juan Pablo Montoya (100-1 odds), Bobby Labonte (100-1 odds), Michael Waltrip (100-1 odds), and Marcos Ambrose (100-1 odds)

If you do not agree with my top ten, here are the odds maker’s top ten

1. Kyle Busch 5-1 odds
2. Carl Edwards 5-1 odds
3. Jeff Gordon 7-1 odds
4. Kurt Busch 7-1 odds
5. Jimmie Johnson 8-1 odds
6. Matt Kenseth 12-1 odds
7. Greg Biffle 12-1 odds
8. Denny Hamlin 18-1 odds
9. Clint Bowyer 20-1 odds
10. Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick, Mark Martin, and Brian Vickers 20-1 odds

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