Tracking the twelve Chase contenders

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Monday Apr 13 2009 1:10pm

Even though the 2009 Sprint Cup season is still in its youthful stages, many drivers and teams analyze the championship standings, do the math so to speak, regardless if they like to admit it or not. How could they not? The series is about to hit the stretch run in the race to the Chase for the Championship. When you look at the current crop of drivers in the top twelve, there are some surprises, most notably David Reutimann (60-1 odds), who is eleventh in the standings.

The Michael Waltrip Racing driver has been consistent right from the drop of the green flag at Daytona in February and has maintained. Many thought that he would have faded by now, but he is still going strong. The thing is, Reutimann could easily be higher in the standings if not for an engine problem at Atlanta, or a late race spin caused by someone else at Martinsville, or a pit road blunder at Texas. Reutimann’s impressive start to the season is no fluke, and he will likely be in contention for a spot among the top twelve once September rolls around.

Clint Bowyer (20-1 odds), Tony Stewart (8-1 odds), and Kasey Kahne (30-1 odds) are some other drivers that few projected would compete in the Chase for the Championship.

No one is surprised to see the likes of Jeff Gordon (3-1 odds), Jimmie Johnson (4-1 odds), Kyle Busch (5-1 odds), Carl Edwards (6-1 odds), Matt Kenseth (15-1 odds), and Denny Hamlin (15-1 odds) among the leaders.

Jeff Burton (30-1 odds) and Kurt Busch (8-1 odds) are also looking strong at this juncture in the season.

Outside of the top twelve is where things get interesting. There are a handful of drivers that are more than capable of entering the top twelve, most notably, Dale Earnhardt, Greg Biffle, Kevin Harvick, and Mark Martin.

13. Juan Pablo Montoya: 60-1 Sprint Cup championship odds

Like David Reutimann, Juan Pablo Montoya has been a pleasant surprise in 2009. Despite the apparent monetary problems within the Earnhardt Ganassi Racing team, Montoya and the No. 42 have consistently ran near the top ten in each race. He has two top ten finishes.

Will he qualify for the Chase for the Championship? I have a hard time believing that he can bypass any of the drivers in front, and keep the ones behind him at the same time. As talented as Montoya is, I believe some of the stronger teams will prevail.

14. Kevin Harvick: 25-1 Sprint Cup championship odds

Kevin Harvick’s 2009 season has not gone according to plan. Many felt as if Harvick was on the cusp on breaking his winless streak, but instead, he seems further away from winning than he did last year. Other than his two top five finishes, his last coming at Atlanta, it has been a disappointing season in 2009.

Will he qualify for the Chase for the Championship? Based on this team’s consistency over the past three seasons, they should creep their way into the championship chase, but their performance seems to be missing. There are a few drivers in and around the top twelve that are performing at a higher level that could prevent Harvick from appearing in his fourth Chase for the Championship. I still have a difficult time counting him out. He can easily strike hot and post five or six straight top ten finishes.

15. Greg Biffle: 15-1 Sprint Cup championship odds

The performance is there, the results are not for Greg Biffle. Judging by his performance, Biffle should be in the top ten, maybe top five, but a fluke accident at Atlanta and a blown motor at Bristol have hampered this team’s advancement. That is not even counting the two pit road errors that could have cost Biffle two wins this season at California and Texas.

Will he qualify for the Chase for the Championship? Unless this team suffers through terrible luck over the next couple of months, they should easily qualify among the top twelve. They are performing better than at least half of the teams in the top twelve, and almost all of the ones outside of the top twelve. Other than Martinsville, Biffle has had a top ten car in every race.

16. Dale Earnhardt Jr: 20-1 Sprint Cup championship odds

It has not been the start to the 2009 season that Dale Earnhardt Jr and his countless fans envisioned. With just two top ten finishes, Earnhardt Jr is lingering outside of the Chase for the Championship contention. While the performance seems to be improving, he still has to pick up the pace if he intends to jump past drivers such as Greg Biffle and Kevin Harvick, much less the drivers that are already inside the top twelve.

Will he qualify for the Chase for the Championship? Probably, but he must curtail some of the self-inflicted mistakes, mostly occurring on pit road. He has the talent and equipment to get the job done, but he may need some help from ones in front of him.

17. Mark Martin: 20-1 Sprint Cup championship odds

Mark Martin’s first season in Hendrick Motorsports equipment has been patchy thus far. However, the results are improving, especially since their sixth place finish at Bristol. This team is beginning to show its potential. It is just a matter of maintaining consistency, which is rarely a problem with Mr. Consistency.

Will he qualify for the Chase for the Championship? Like Earnhardt Jr, the talent and the equipment is there. It is just a matter of the stars aligning his way.

18. Ryan Newman: 60-1 Sprint Cup championship odds

After moving his skills from Penske Racing to Stewart Haas Racing, Ryan Newman’s typical misfortune seemed to follow him at first. However, he scored two consecutive top ten finishes at Bristol and Martinsville before barely cracking the top fifteen at Texas. Newman is back in Chase for the Championship contention.

Will he qualify for the Chase for the Championship? It seems as if they are strong on the short tracks, but they struggle on the intermediate tracks, which occupy a large percentage of the schedule. That could hinder Newman’s chance at a spot among the top twelve. Basically, Newman needs several drivers in front of him to encounter trouble.

Other notable drivers chasing a top twelve spot include Brian Vickers (80-1 odds), Michael Waltrip (100-1 odds), Martin Truex Jr (100-1 odds), Bobby Labonte (100-1 odds), Casey Mears (100-1 odds), Jamie McMurray (80-1 odds), and David Ragan 100-1 odds)

Current top twelve drivers: 1. Jeff Gordon, 2. Jimmie Johnson, 3. Kurt Busch, 4. Clint Bowyer, 5. Tony Stewart, 6. Denny Hamlin, 7. Kyle Busch, 8. Carl Edwards, 9. Matt Kenseth, 10. Kasey Kahne, 11. David Reutimann, 12. Jeff Burton.

Projected top twelve contenders in September: 1. Jimmie Johnson, 2. Jeff Gordon, 3. Kyle Busch, 4. Carl Edwards, 5. Kurt Busch, 6. Matt Kenseth, 7. Tony Stewart, 8. Greg Biffle, 9. Clint Bowyer, 10. Denny Hamlin, 11. Dale Earnhardt Jr, 12. David Reutimann.

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