Is This The Week Gordon End Drought

Atlanta Motor Speedway -- 03/8/2009

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Thursday Mar 5 2009 2:27pm

The Sprint Cup Series is off to Atlanta, perhaps the fastest speedway in NASCAR.

Four-time champion Jeff Gordon is on the brink of victory, hoping to slay his 43-race winless skid. Judging by his record of accomplishments at the Atlanta Motor Speedway, it could happen in this weekend’s Kobalt Tools 500. Nevertheless, my pick is Greg Biffle for a variety of reasons. Either way, Roush Fenway Racing and Hendrick Motorsports are still the cream of the crop, and Kyle Busch is right there with them.

There are several underdog teams that are making some noise, such as Michael Waltrip Racing, most notably David Reutimann. Also, Bobby Labonte and his Hall of Fame and Yates Racing team displayed vast speed at Las Vegas.

1. 16-Greg Biffle: 7-1 odds

At California and Las Vegas, Greg Biffle had a car capable of winning. Unfortunate circumstances in both races kept him from victory lane, but that could very well change this weekend in Atlanta. He finished fourth in the race a year ago, and was running down eventual winner Kyle Busch before his tires finally gave out. Biffle and his Roush Fenway Racing teammates are a huge threat to win this weekend’s race at Atlanta. Biffle is a solid bet for the Kobalt Tools 500.

In Biffle’s last four starts at Atlanta, he has posted finishes of 41st, 22nd, fourth, and tenth.

In twelve starts at Atlanta, Biffle has yet to win, but he has posted three top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 14.4. He has thirteen career wins on intermediate ovals, and an average finish of 15.7.

2. 24-Jeff Gordon: 6-1 odds

Jeff Gordon has been fast at each event thus far. There is no reason to believe that he is going to decelerate at Atlanta, one of his best tracks statistically. Gordon has not won a race at Atlanta since October of 2003, but he is always a contender. Expect Gordon to run near the front on Sunday. Like Biffle, he is a solid pick.

In his last four starts at Atlanta, Gordon has posted finishes of seventh, twelfth, ninth, and fifth.

In 33 career starts at Atlanta, Jeff Gordon has four wins, thirteen top five finishes, and twenty-one top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.7. He has forty career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 11.9.

3. 18-Kyle Busch: 6-1 odds

Kyle Busch is still jovial following his hometown triumph at Las Vegas. He heads to the track where he is the defending winner, and where he rewarded Toyota with their first Sprint Cup victory. Based on his performances at California and Las Vegas, Kyle Busch is one of the heavy favorites to win the Kobalt Tools 500. As he showed last year, when he strikes hot, he is difficult to keep up with.

In his last four starts at Atlanta, he has posted finishes of 20th, 32nd, first, and fifth.

In nine career starts at Atlanta, Kyle Busch has one win, two top five finishes, and two top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 18.2. He has eight career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 16.8.

4. 99-Carl Edwards: 5-1 odds

Carl Edwards was well on his way to a top five finish at Las Vegas until his engine finally gave out as he was approaching the white flag lap. It was a frustrating ending to a solid day. Edwards heads to Atlanta where he dominated last fall. He was simply unstoppable that last time the Sprint Cup Series visited the 1.5-mile venue. This could be the weekend he breaks through.

In his last four starts at Atlanta, Edwards has posted finishes of seventh, second, 42nd, and first.

In nine career starts at Atlanta, Edwards has three wins, five top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.6. He has fourteen career wins on intermediate ovals, and an average finish of 11.3.

5. 48-Jimmie Johnson: 5-1 odds

It has not been the start that Jimmie Johnson envisioned for 2009. Nevertheless, his performances have been solid. The Atlanta Motor Speedway is one of Johnson’s most favorable tracks, and he should once again run towards the front and lead laps. Last fall, Johnson rallied from eleventh to second in the final few laps.

In Johnson’s last four starts at Atlanta, he has posted finishes of first, first, thirteenth, and second.

In fifteen career starts at Atlanta, Johnson has three wins, nine top five finishes, and ten top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 9.1. He has thirty career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 10.0.

6. 17-Matt Kenseth: 8-1 odds

From first to worst; that is not what Matt Kenseth wants to think about as he heads to Atlanta this weekend. After a perfect start to the season, his day ended after six laps at Las Vegas. It was a rare engine malfunction. The Roush Yates engine package is usually reliable, and what ever caused the defect has surely been remedied. Look for Kenseth to return to race-winning contention this weekend.

In Kenseth’s last four starts at Atlanta, he has posted finishes of third, fourth, eighth, and fourth.

In eighteen career starts at Atlanta, Kenseth has yet to win, but he has scored seven top five finishes, and eleven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 13.9. He has twelve career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 14.0.

7. 5-Mark Martin: 20-1 odds

Mark Martin is currently 34th in the Sprint Cup standings after two consecutive weeks of engines failures. When he decided to return to full-time racing at the Sprint Cup level, this was hardly the situation that he envisioned. However, Martin is unflappable and will not blow engines every week. The team runs in the top ten, so once he overcomes this early season misfortune, he is going to be tough to beat.

In Martin’s last four starts at Atlanta, he has posted finishes of tenth, 43rd, 22nd, and 22nd.

In forty-six career starts at Atlanta, Martin has two victories, thirteen top five finishes, and 22 top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 16.9. He has eighteen career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 12.8.

8. 33-Clint Bowyer: 40-1 odds

Clint Bowyer nearly won at Las Vegas thanks to brilliant pit strategy. Bowyer seems to be gelling with his new crew chief and team much quicker than I projected. Bowyer is one of the most consistent drivers in NASCAR, and drives for perhaps the most durable organization. Look for another solid performance for Bowyer and company.

In his last four starts at Atlanta, Bowyer has posted three finishes of sixth, and a thirty-third place finish.

In six career starts at Atlanta, Bowyer has three top ten finishes, and an average finish of 15.0. He has one win on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 16.5.

9. 88-Dale Earnhardt Jr: 20-1 odds

It is going to be baby steps for Dale Earnhardt Jr. The first two weeks of the season were nearly catastrophic for NASCAR’s most adored driver, but he was able to overcome another pit road penalty at Las Vegas and finish in the top ten. Right now, Earnhardt Jr just needs to race smart and post top ten finishes so he can quickly distance himself from the top 35 cutoff. Expect a top ten performance.

In his last four starts at Atlanta, Earnhardt Jr has placed finishes of fourteenth, 25th, third, and eleventh.

In nineteen career starts at Atlanta, Earnhardt Jr has scored one victory, eight top five finishes, and ten top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.7. He has seven career wins on intermediate ovals, and an average finish of 11.7.

10. 2-Kurt Busch: 15-1 odds

Kurt Busch was enjoying a top five performance before mechanical issues set him back. He was able to post a respectable finish, 23rd to be exact, but he would have loved to have been the Busch brother celebrating in victory lane. Busch won at Atlanta in 2005, and is typically solid each visit to the 1.5-mile facility.

In his last four starts at Atlanta, Kurt Busch has scored finishes of eleventh, eighth, eleventh, and sixth.

In seventeen career starts at Atlanta, Kurt Busch has one win, one top five finish, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 19.7. He has eleven career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 18.0.

Also, keep an eye on Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton, Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart, and Jamie McMurray

Great dark horse picks include David Reutimann, Bobby Labonte, David Stremme, Sam Hornish Jr, and Brian Vickers

Odds maker’s top ten

1. Carl Edwards 5-1 odds
2. Jimmie Johnson 5-1 odds
3. Jeff Gordon 6-1 odds
4. Kyle Busch 6-1 odds
5. Greg Biffle 7-1 odds
6. Matt Kenseth 8-1 odds
7. Kurt Busch 15-1 odds
8. Tony Stewart 20-1 odds
9. Dale Earnhardt Jr 20-1 odds
10. Mark Martin 20-1 odds

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User	Comment
NapaFave55	Atlanta was a fun race and, although I favored Dale Jr. to win, I was among many friends that were not too quiet in their excitement for Jeff Gordon to win. He`s still got lots of time to win more championships if that`s what he wants so I don`t find issue with him not winning. He works hard both on and off the track and all that hard work will payoff sooner or later. Many of his fans hope it`s sooner rather than later.
RIRmama	I have to disagree that Gordon peaked years ago. He has a great record overall, even if hasn`t won in a while. I love the Atlanta track. It makes for a fun race!
Cal	People will always love this track and I am sure if fans could petition to have this one used more they surely would try and do so. jamming - thats what I was thinking too but then I wondered if he just burned out quick and needed some downtime to recoup, now I am not so sure.
jamming	Face it, Jeff Gordon is in a drought because he peaked years ago. I don`t mean to sound harsh but he just doesn`t have that edge anymore.
RaceFan88	Jeff didn`t win the Kobolt Tools 500 in Atlanta but he came in a close second. It didn`t end his drought but he gave it his all; well, almost all. I can`t believe he hasn`t won in 44 races. That would be almost hard to believe if it weren`t the truth.
2nd Place	Jeff Gordon does have a chance to win this weekend, but the question in my mind and in many others minds I suspect is; Have the support teams manage to fix these vehicles where they will survive a race today? With all the cars just falling apart its a concern to any of us who make a living on professional sports betting. And yes this is an unsolicited plug for Nascapper because I have been with them in one form or another since the beginning.
FastTrack	Sorry guys, but I`m putting my money on those who have the best odds of winning. From where I am sitting that looks to be Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson.
brix12	I`d put my bet on Dale Earnhardt Jr. I know that he`s trying to reach the end of the track in the past, but he was just unfortunate to grab the victory. This might be his chance to win the Atlanta race.
Tetchie	Whoever wins the race deserves the taste of triumph as long as one of them would reach the finish lane. I hope that there`s no more car crashes in Atlanta this time.
NapaFave55	Dale Jr just needs to keep being in the top 10 or even the top 5 to keep going strong. Actually, winning would really keep that momentum going. He`s had some tough luck so far but his odds are the same as Mark Martin`s at 20-1 so I`d be willing to bet on him. Even though he`s starting in 20th versus Mark`s pole position, I`d still go so far to say that I`d even bet on him to win.
RaceFan88	I`d put every dollar I could if I were to bet this week on Jeff Gordan. He just has the "it" that is needed to win in Atlanta and I think that this could be the win for him and his Hendrick team.
junkyard	I don`t care how hard up for a win Gordon is, I don`t want him winning. I`d like to see Labonte take it one more time. Or McMurray.
ryder_29	I`ll keep an eye on Jeff Gordon, this might be his chance to win the race on one of his best tracks. With hope, I expect to see no car wrecks in Atlanta Motor Speedway this Sunday.
jade06	I`d like to see Jimmie Johnson win the race this weekend, he absolutely knows how to drive his car in a rough 1.5-mile track. Hopefully Tony Stewart won`t have anymore tire issues this upcoming race in Atlanta.
brownlee	Well since Jeff Gordon hasn`t won a race in quite awhile, I guess he could use one win,lol. I`d like to see Kasey Kahne win Sunday. Or Carl Edwards so I can see him do his back flip.