Jeff Gordon will have to beat his teammate

Martinsville Speedway -- 03/29/2009

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Thursday Mar 26 2009 2:28pm

Every year, Bristol and Martinsville are schedule on back-to-back weekends, meaning that you have two weeks of beating and banging. Well, at Bristol, there was less banging and beating, and more domination from Kyle Busch. Busch heads into Martinsville with a steam full of momentum. Over the past five years or so, Martinsville Speedway has become a personal playground for Hendrick Motorsports drivers Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson. In fact, Johnson owns three of the last four wins at the 0.526-mile paperclip shaped oval. There is no debating who the favorites are for this weekend’s event.

1. 24-Jeff Gordon: 5-1 odds

Could this be the week for Jeff Gordon? Martinsville is historically one of Jeff Gordon’s best tracks. He leads all active drivers in wins and top five finishes at the Virginia-based facility. Gordon would love nothing more than to silence the critics that have hounded him throughout his current winless skid. However, his greatest challenge this weekend will be his next door neighbor so to speak. Jimmie Johnson has taken over the throne as King of Martinsville, a title that Gordon owned for several years.

In his last four starts at Martinsville, Gordon has scored finishes of second, third, second and fourth.

In thirty-two career starts at Martinsville, Jeff Gordon has posted seven wins, twenty top five finishes, and twenty-six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 6.9. He has fifteen career wins on short tracks, and an average finish of 11.2.

2. 48-Jimmie Johnson: 4-1 odds

Jimmie Johnson is the odds-on favorite to win his sixth race at the storied half-mile venue. Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus have hit on a setup that has worked wonders for this team over the past few years. They were dominant in the Car of Yesterday, and they are dominant in the Car of Tomorrow. Johnson is well aware of the fact that his teammate and former mentor Jeff Gordon is starving for a win, but he will not give an inch. Johnson is coming off a third place finish at Bristol Motor Speedway last weekend.

In last four starts at Martinsville, Johnson has three wins and a fourth place finish.

In fourteen career starts at Martinsville, Johnson has scored five wins, ten top five finishes, and thirteen top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 5.6. He has eight career wins on short tracks, and an average finish of 13.3.

3. 11-Denny Hamlin: 6-1 odds

Other than the Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson tandem, Denny Hamlin has perhaps been the top driver at Martinsville over the past two years. He is the defending winner of this race, and the track is located near his hometown of Chesterfield, Virginia. Prior to his racing days, Hamlin was a regular spectator at the Martinsville Speedway. Ever since he has joined the NASCAR Sprint Cup ranks, Hamlin has been a force at NASCAR’s smallest track. He finished second here as a rookie in 2006.

In his last four starts at Martinsville, Hamlin has posted finishes of third, sixth, first and fifth.

In seven career starts at Martinsville, Hamlin has one win, four top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 8.9. He has one career short track win, and an average finish of 10.1.

4. 18-Kyle Busch: 5-1 odds

Once again, Kyle Busch is the talk of the town. Not only is he up to his old winning ways, but he made some rather controversial statement about rival Dale Earnhardt Jr following the win at Bristol. Nonetheless, Busch heads to Martinsville as the hottest driver. In 2008, Martinsville was not kind of Busch, but he typically performs well. Expect another solid performance out of Busch and the No. 18 group. They may contend for the win, but I believe this weekend’s race will come down to Gordon, Johnson, and Hamlin.

In his last four starts at Martinsville, Kyle Busch has finishes of fourth, fourth, 38th, and 29th.

In eight career starts at Martinsville, Kyle Busch has yet to win, but he has posted three top five finishes, and four top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 18.2. He has two career wins on short tracks, and an average finish of 12.0.

5. 88-Dale Earnhardt Jr: 15-1 odds

This might be the weekend in which Dale Earnhardt Jr silences the suddenly numerous detractors. He has taken some heat this season, but he remains confident in himself and his crew chief and cousin Tony Eury Jr. Earnhardt Jr initially struggled at Martinsville, once provoking the quote, ‘He hit everything but the pace car’. However, he has learned the characteristics of the track, such as how important brakes are. He usually qualifies well at Martinsville, which will pay dividends on race day, as track position is crucial on the short tracks.

In his last four starts at Martinsville, Earnhardt Jr has posted finishes of fifth, twenty-third, sixth, and second.

In eighteen career starts at Martinsville, Earnhardt Jr has yet to win at the 0.526-mile track, but he has scored eight top five finishes, and nine top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 13.6. He has four career short track victories, and an average finish of 13.6.

6. 39-Ryan Newman: 25-1 odds

This is more of a gut feeling than past results. Ryan Newman’s last few starts at Martinsville have not turned out the way he would have liked, but he is in Hendrick Motorsports equipment, and his Stewart Haas Racing team performed well at Bristol last week. Track position is key at Martinsville, and Newman is a stout qualifier. If he can qualify near the front like he did at Bristol, expect Newman to remain with the frontrunners. I do no believe he will be a major threat to win the race, but he will run among the top ten.

In his last four starts at Martinsville, Newman has placed finishes of fourteenth, second, nineteenth, and twenty-third.

In fourteen career starts at Martinsville, Newman has five top five finishes and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 15.0. He has one career short track victory, and an average finish of 15.6.

7. 5-Mark Martin: 20-1 odds

Like Newman, Martin scored a warmly welcomed top ten finish at Bristol last week. Martin has not raced at Martinsville since 2006, but he went to Bristol under the same circumstances. He has not forgotten how to pace the track, as he owns more starts than any active driver at Martinsville. Additionally, Martin is driving Hendrick Motorsports equipment, which we all know has been stellar at Martinsville in recent years. Martin may not be as strong as his two teammates, but expect to see him near the front for most of the day.

In his last four starts at Martinsville, which were in 2005 and 2006, Martin placed finishes of third, 34th, thirteenth, and 24th.

In forty-two career starts at Martinsville, Martin has two wins, eleven top five finishes, and twenty-one top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 13.4. He has seven career wins on short tracks, and an average finish of 13.0.

8. 2-Kurt Busch: 12-1 odds

Despite being involved in an early incident, Kurt Busch was able to salvage a twelfth place finish at Bristol last week. This team is responding to adversity much better than they have in the past. Busch’s recent results at Martinsville are far from impressive, but he did win at the track in 2002. Busch is solid on the short tracks as well. Expect a top ten performance from Busch and his Penske Racing outfit.

In his last four starts at Martinsville, Kurt Busch has posted finishes of twelfth, 31st, 33rd, and 36th.

In seventeen career starts at Martinsville, Kurt Busch has one victory, two top five finishes, and four top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 22.0. He has seven career wins on short tracks, and an average finish of 18.4.

9. 31-Jeff Burton: 20-1 odds

Other than Mark Martin and Jeff Gordon, nobody has as much experience as Jeff Burton at Martinsville. Burton is coming off his second top ten finish of the season, and hopes to add a third at Martinsville. Burton will probably not contend for the win, but like Martin, he should be solidly in the top ten.

In his last four starts at Martinsville, Burton has placed finishes of sixth, twelfth, third, and seventeenth.

In twenty-nine career starts at Martinsville, Burton has one win, ten top five finishes, and fourteen top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 14.6. He has three career wins on short tracks, and an average finish of 16.4.

10. 14-Tony Stewart: 20-1 odds

It came down to Tony Stewart and Kasey Kahne, but I went with Stewart. After struggling last week at Bristol, Stewart is likely to turn things around at Martinsville, which is one of his better tracks. His last win at Martinsville occurred in 2006, and he fended off late challenges from none other than Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon to score the win. Expect Stewart and his teammate to score top ten finishes.

In his last two starts at Martinsville, Stewart has posted finishes of seventh, thirteenth, fifth, and 26th.

In twenty career starts at Martinsville, Stewart owns two wins, seven top five finishes, and eleven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.6. He has six career short track wins, and an average finish of 13.2.

Also, keep an eye on Clint Bowyer (25-1 odds), Kevin Harvick (15-1 odds), Carl Edwards (15-1 odds), Greg Biffle (30-1 odds), and Kasey Kahne (20-1 odds)

Great dark horse picks include Brian Vickers (75-1 odds), Juan Pablo Montoya (60-1 odds), David Reutimann (75-1 odds), Bobby Labonte (200-1 odds), and Casey Mears (100-1 odds)

Don’t like my picks? Well here are the odds maker’s top ten

1. Jimmie Johnson 4-1 odds
2. Jeff Gordon 5-1 odds
3. Kyle Busch 5-1 odds
4. Denny Hamlin 6-1 odds
5. Kurt Busch 12-1 odds
6. Carl Edwards 15-1 odds
7. Kevin Harvick 15-1 odds
8. Dale Earnhardt Jr 15-1 odds
9. Kasey Kahne 20-1 odds
10. Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart, Mark Martin, Jamie McMurray 20-1 odds

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User	Comment
jamming	Great job at predicting the winner this time, dude. Also glad to see you said to "keep an eye on Clint Bowyer". He may have only ended up coming in 5th but he ran a terrific race.
brownlee59	Well, even though I am Kasey fan, I think Gordon is going to take this win. Looking at the odds it doesn`t look to me like Kyle will get this one.
Perdy	It`s hard not to bet on Johnson or Gordon. But Busch is looking like a good bet as well. That`s a hard choice based on how the season has gone so far. Some races are really hard to call.
GordaFan24	I`m going to put my money this weekend on Jeff Gordon to place or win. There`s others that may be right at the front but if Jeff can do well in qualifying by being in the top 10, he`ll have a great shot at winning.
junkyard	I doubt Johnson will be crossing that finish line first, unless something weird happens along the way. I personally don`t think it will happen. Busch is the boy to beat again this week if you ask me.
Karlee	Maybe Denny Hamlin`s previous wins on this course will bring him luck for this race. My money will be on Jeff Gordon again, Johnson to do well, but not take all.
crosby	Dale Jr`s odds are better than I expected them to be. He`s done alright in Martinsville before. His team could use the win to boost their confidence. Stewart is another one I will be watching this weekend.
RIRmama	I feel bad for Jeff Gordon. He has raced well but hasn`t been able to come in first this season. As always, I`m hopeful for this weekend. Shush the critics Jeff!
jade06	Matt Kenseth`s name is noticeably not included in the odds favorite. He`s actually one of my favorite picks but who knows, he could win the upcoming race this weekend.
brix12	How about Carl Edwards? We may never know but he might be the one to reach the victory lane. I`m not sure about Jimmie Johnson, he could be making some progression but I doubt that he will win.
Tetchie	If I have to choose someone to win, it would be Kurt Busch. I`m just hopeful that he would win. Jeff Gordon may beat his team mate, but either one of them win the race, is always equivalent to the winning team who`s representing them both.
ryder_29	I`m gonna bet on Jimmie Johnson to win at Martinsville track. But by odds, I`ll wish someone luck who would win the race this weekend. I hope it`s not Kyle Busch this time.
RaceFan88	My first favorite is always Dale Jr but I like to consider others when figuring out who has the best chances of winning and placing in the top-10 of any particular race. I think the drivers are pretty well placed here although I would have swapped the Busch brothers. With Chad Knaus as crew chief, I`d have also placed Jimmie in front of Jeff.
NapaFave55	I`m a bit surprised that the odds here show Jimmie Johnson second to Jeff Gordon. It may be that Jeff is aching for a win but so is Jimmie. With his record and ability, I would have put Jimmie first. In the end, I think what will have a bearing on who has the better shot is how they each place in qualifying. It should be an exciting race no matter who wins.
OGr8ty8	I`m glad Dale Jr has the odds he does. I want him to qualify well so he has a good chance at coming across the finishing line first. As the statistics show, it`s important to qualify in the top 10 in order to have the best chance at winning at Martinsville.