Clint Bowyer, Jeff Gordon duel for first win of 2009

Bristol Motor Speedway -- 03/22/2009

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Thursday Mar 19 2009 8:28pm

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series is back in full swing this weekend in Bristol, Tennessee. The Bristol Motor Speedway is arguably NASCAR’s most exciting track. The 0.533-mile bullring triggers forceful and hard line racing, and a feud or two could develop this weekend.

Jeff Gordon and Clint Bowyer are on the cusp of victory, as they possess the top two spots in the Sprint Cup championship standings. I have a feeling that one of these two drivers is going to breakthrough, but it is probably not the one that you would pick. Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, and Kevin Harvick are drivers to watch as well.

Ryan Newman, Mark Martin, and Dale Earnhardt Jr look to climb further up the championship standings following sluggish starts to the 2009 season.

1. Clint Bowyer: 18-1 odds

In 2008, I never picked Clint Bowyer to win. However, I have a strong feeling that he could be the breakthrough driver of 2009. When I say breakthrough, I mean a three or four win season. Bowyer is one of the most consistent drivers, which is surprising considering that he is still in the early stages of his career. He seems motivated more than ever following an off-season in which few analysts projected that he was a true Chase for the Championship contender after switching to a new team within the Richard Childress Racing organization. In his rookie season, Bowyer struggled at Bristol, but ever since 2007, he has yet to finish worse than eighth. Expect a strong showing by Bowyer on Sunday despite the fact that he is not an odds-on favorite.

In his last four starts at Bristol, Bowyer has recorded finishes of eighth, third, third, and seventh.

In six career starts at Bristol, Bowyer has two top five finishes and four top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 14.7. He has one career win on a short track (at Richmond), and an average finish of 12.7.

2. Jeff Gordon: 5-1 odds

Jeff Gordon is an odds-on favorite to win at Bristol this weekend, which come as a surprise to no one. This could be a prime opportunity for Gordon to snap his winless streak. He has an impressive record of accomplishments at the 0.533-mile venue. Nevertheless, he has not won at Bristol since August of 2002 when he used the old bump and run to scoot by Rusty Wallace. You could say that he is overdue for a win at Thunder Valley. I would anticipate a solid performance from Gordon and the No. 24 team. He is a solid bet for this weekend’s Food City 500.

In his last four starts at Bristol, Jeff Gordon has posted finishes of third, 19th, eleventh, and fifth.

In thirty-two career starts at Bristol, Jeff Gordon has five wins, thirteen top five finishes, and nineteen top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.5. He has fifteen career wins on short tracks, and an average finish of 11.3.

3. Kurt Busch: 7-1 odds

When Kurt Busch was on his A-game, he was virtually unstoppable at Bristol. From 2002 to 2004, he won four of six races. Since then, he only has one victory, and he has not been as competitive, but it would be a mistake to discount him this weekend, as it appears as if the Kurt Busch we saw from 2002 to 2005 is back. Based on his performance thus far, Kurt could be a championship contender, but it is still extremely early in the season. Expect Busch to contend for the victory on Sunday.

In his last four starts at Bristol, Kurt Busch has posted finishes of 29th, sixth, twelfth, and fifteenth.

In sixteen career starts at Bristol, Kurt Busch has five wins, five top five finishes, and nine top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 14.4. He has seven career wins on short tracks, and an average finish of 18.6.

4. Carl Edwards: 6-1 odds

Carl Edwards heads into Bristol this weekend winless in 2009, but he owns two of the last four victories at Bristol. He has yet to have that breakout race, but that could change this weekend. Edwards is one of the odds-on favorites to win the Food City 500. Edwards should be among the contenders this weekend. He too is a solid pick.

In his last four starts at Bristol, Edwards has scored finishes of twelfth, first, sixteenth, and first.

In nine career starts at Bristol, Edwards has two wins, three top five finishes, and four top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 13.8. He has two career wins on short tracks, and an average finish of 16.4.

5. Kyle Busch: 5-1 odds

Last August, Kyle Busch was rooted out of the way by Carl Edwards for the win. It was a loss that angered Busch, and his season fell apart afterwards. In 2009, Busch would love nothing more than to be behind Edwards with just a handful of laps remaining. Busch won this race two years ago, which happened to be the first race with the Car of Tomorrow. Busch will be a tough competitor this weekend. He, along with Jeff Gordon, is the odds-on favorite.

In his last four starts at Bristol, Kyle Busch has placed finishes of first, ninth, seventeenth, and second.

In eight career starts at Bristol, Kyle Busch has one victory (2007), three top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.5. He has one career short track victory, and an average finish of 12.5.

6. Kevin Harvick: 12-1 odds

Kevin Harvick won this race four years ago, breaking a winless streak of nearly two years. He has another opportunity to break an even longer winless streak. Harvick has not won a race since the 2007 Daytona 500. This is one of his best opportunities, as statistically, Bristol is one of his most favorable tracks. Keep an eye on Harvick; he is actually a smart bet for the Food City 500.

In his last four starts at Bristol, Harvick has placed finishes of fourth, sixteenth, second, and fourth.

In sixteen career starts at Bristol, Harvick has one win, nine top five finishes, and eleven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 9.6. He has two career short track wins, and an average finish of 12.9.

7. Denny Hamlin: 10-1 odds

Denny Hamlin had the last two spring Bristol races won before fuel pump issues haunted him on late restarts. It is safe to say that the Bristol Motor Speedway owes Hamlin one. He would love to collect this weekend, as he has been rather quiet thus far in 2009. This could be the weekend in which Hamlin finally makes some noise.

In his last four starts at Bristol, Hamlin has scored finishes of fourteenth, 43rd, sixth, and third.

In six career starts at Bristol, Hamlin has yet to win, but he has scored one top five finish, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 14.3. He has one career short track win (Martinsville), and an average finish of 10.6.

8. Tony Stewart: 18-1 odds

Thus far, Tony Stewart has experienced few growing pains since taking over reigns of Stewart Haas Racing. This weekend could be a test for the organization. It is a difficult track, and sometimes frustration can get the best of a driver. We all know that Stewart has the tendency to get frustrated at times. He will be interesting to follow this weekend.

In his last four starts at Bristol, Stewart has posted finishes of 35th, fourth, fourteenth, and eighth.

In twenty career starts at Bristol, Stewart has one win, five top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 16.4. He has six career short track victories, and an average finish of 13.1.

9. Mark Martin: 25-1 odds

Mark Martin is well overdue for a positive outing. A dark cloud has followed the fifty year old veteran ever since the 2009 season began. Martin has a history of solid performances at Bristol, but he has not raced at the 0.533-mile track since August of 2006. In other words, he has zero experience at Bristol in the Car of Tomorrow.

In his last four starts at Bristol, Martin has scored finishes of 31st, sixteenth, 28th, and sixth.

In forty career starts at Bristol, Martin has two wins, fifteen top five finishes, and twenty-one top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.8. He has seven career short track wins, and an average finish of 13.0.

10. Ryan Newman: 60-1 odds

Like Mark Martin, Ryan Newman has suffered through one disaster after another since the 2009 season commenced. I believe that Newman will finally escape the dark cloud that has followed him this weekend at Bristol.

In his last four starts at Bristol, Newman has scored finishes of 39th, seventh, 33rd, and sixth.

In fourteen career starts at Bristol, Newman has one top five finish, seven top ten finishes, and an average finish of 20.1. He has one career short track win (Richmond), and an average finish of 15.8.

Also, keep an eye on Jeff Burton (18-1 odds), Jimmie Johnson (15-1 odds), Dale Earnhardt Jr (15-1 odds), Matt Kenseth (12-1 odds), and Greg Biffle (15-1 odds)

Great dark horse picks include David Reutimann (100-1 odds), Bobby Labonte (100-1 odds), Jamie McMurray (30-1 odds), Juan Pablo Montoya (100-1 odds), and Aric Almirola (100-1 odds)

If you do not like my picks, here are the odds maker’s Top Ten

1. Jeff Gordon 5-1 odds
2. Kyle Busch 5-1 odds
3. Carl Edwards 6-1 odds
4. Kurt Busch 7-1 odds
5. Denny Hamlin 10-1 odds
6. Kevin Harvick 12-1 odds
7. Matt Kenseth 12-1 odds
8. Greg Biffle 15-1 odds
9. Jimmie Johnson 15-1 odds
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr 15-1 odds

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User	Comment
Ted	If he wanted to take the lead there were plenty of times he could have, so why did not pass it up? He can not be bored with the sport or anything.
Perdy	Gordon couldn`t do it again! How does he go home to his wife at night without winning time after time? lol He did okay today but couldn`t take the lead when he needed to.
junkyard	I think Gordon`s odds are definitely good for this weekend but I don`t know that he can do it. I`m pulling for Kyle Busch because I`ve got money on him.
RIRmama	As long as something stupid doesn`t happen on the track I think Gordon is going to win. If the other drivers don`t run into him and mess him up then I think this is the race!
brownlee59	I think Jeff Gordon is gonna win this weekend. I just get this feeling. He has been doing better latley this year. He is due for a win. Even though I would rather see Kasey Kahne win.
OGr8ty8	Go Dale. No matter where he starts, I always feel that Dale can pull out a win. He has what it takes; he just needs to put it all together, stay out of trouble, and work well with the pit crew. The most important relationship there is between him and his crew chief. I`m rooting for Dale to win.
RaceFan88	I enjoy many racers but I do enjoy a dark horse now and then. This races`s dark horse for me will be Juan Pablo Montoya. I haven`t paid any attention to him yet this year so I`m going to watch how he does and see if his talents shows through on this track.
NapaFave55	Although Mark Martin`s in a great position at Bristol, I always feel that Jeff Gordon can make a win on this track from almost any position. I`m thinking with the dynamics of this racetrack that if he can race fast and smart, he has a great chance to put his car in victory lane.
jamming	I don`t believe that will end up seeing a duel between Gordon and Bowyer at all with this race. I wouldn`t be at all surprised to see Kurt Busch or Carl Edwards finish in the top spot this weekend.
Cal	No matter what happens its going to be damn interesting. Too many oddball factors come into play here, and this might be what Gordy needs to get back on the right track again like I had mentioned before.
jade06	Well, Gordon is just too far more popular than Bowyer. More fans cheering for Gordon, more inspiration he could get from them, not just from his wife and daughter.
Tetchie	It seems like others are eyeing Gordon to win the Bristol race. He`s got a lot of fans and they must be hoping to see him claim the victory in the upcoming Bristol race.
ryder_29	Yes, sometimes a unusual event happens, with a chase contender winning the race. It takes a driving skill to win the race, who knows, Bowyer might exceed over Gordon at the Bristol track.
brix12	Being a veteran who drives in the Bristol track many times in the past must be sure to win the race than a chase contender who hasn`t won a single race at Bristol. But chances happen anyway, it could be Bowyer or Gordon winning at the finish line.