Stewart Haas could score first win at Dover

Dover International Speedway -- 05/31/2009

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Thursday May 28 2009 12:14pm

1. Ryan Newman: 25-1 odds

Following four consecutive top five finishes at Talladega, Richmond, Darlington, and Charlotte, it is logical to believe that Newman can finally break into victory lane at Dover. This would be Stewart Haas Racing’s first points-paying Sprint Cup win. Newman’s odds are not as good as I would have expected considering the way he is performing coupled with his track record at Dover.

In his last four starts at Dover, Newman has scored finishes of second, 28th, fourteenth, and thirteenth. In fourteen career starts at Dover, Newman has three wins, six top five finishes, and eight top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 10.5.

2. Kyle Busch: 5-1 odds

Kyle Busch left the Coca Cola 600 embittered after finishing sixth. He led 173 laps, and he arguably had the car to beat. Busch is the defending winner of this event, and he seems to be on top of his game. He is going to be a threat to win on Sunday.

In his last four starts at Dover, Busch has placed finishes of seventeenth, fifth, first, and 43rd. In eight career starts at Dover, Busch has one win, five top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 14.4.

3. Tony Stewart: 12-1 odds

Like his teammate Newman, Stewart traditionally performs well at the 1-mile concrete oval. The organization is on the brink of winning a Sprint Cup race, and the victory celebration could take place this weekend. Both SHR drivers will be among the frontrunners.

In his last four starts at Dover, Stewart has scored finishes of 40th, ninth, 41st, and eleventh. In twenty career starts at Dover, Stewart has two wins, nine top five finishes, and twelve top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.1.

4. Greg Biffle: 7-1 odds

In 2008, Biffle led the most laps and finished third in June and won in September. Clearly, he knows how to pace the Monster Mile. Following a disappointing outing at Charlotte, Biffle is one of the odds-on favorites to clinch his first victory of the 2009 season.

In his last four starts at Dover, Biffle has recorded finishes of sixth, second, third, and first. In thirteen career starts, Biffle has two wins, five top five finishes, and eight top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.2.

5. Jimmie Johnson: 6-1 odds

Johnson and the No. 48 group did not score the finished they initially expected at Charlotte. Perhaps the most resilient team in NASCAR is ready to tame the Monster Mile this weekend. There is no reason to doubt that Johnson is going to be a factor at Dover on Sunday.

In his last four starts at Dover, Johnson has placed finishes of fifteenth, fourteenth, seventh, and fifth. In fourteen career starts, Johnson has three wins, five top five finishes, and nine top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.1.

6. Matt Kenseth: 10-1 odds

Kenseth led the most laps at Dover last fall before he lost a late-race duel with teammate Biffle. The Roush Fenway Racing group typically thrives at Dover, so expect a solid weekend from Kenseth, as well as his Ford counterparts.

In his last four starts at Dover, Kenseth has scored finishes of fifth, 35th, fourth, and second. In twenty career starts at Dover, Kenseth owns a win, seven top five finishes, and twelve top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 14.1.

7. Jeff Gordon: 8-1 odds

Jeff Gordon surprisingly struggled with the handling at Charlotte last week. Dover is a different animal. While it is a physically demanding track, Gordon is usually a frontrunner at the 1-mile oval. Despite an aching back, Gordon should enjoy a top ten performance at Dover.

In his four starts at Dover, Gordon has posted finishes of ninth, eleventh, fifth, and seventh. In thirty-two career starts, Gordon owns four wins, fourteen top five finishes, and twenty top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.9.

8. Carl Edwards: 7-1 odds

The driver known as ‘Concrete Carl’ is always a favorite when NASCAR visits the Monster Mile. For some reason, Edwards performs at a high level on the tracks with concrete surfaces. His last win at Dover occurred in September of 2007.

In his last four starts at Dover, Edwards has posted finishes of third, first, second, and third. In nine career starts at Dover, Edwards has a win, five top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 7.7.

9. Denny Hamlin: 12-1 odds

Hamlin is overdue for a top ten finish. The last time he finished in the top ten was at Phoenix in April.

In his last four starts at Dover, Hamlin has finishes of fourth, 38th, 43rd, and 38th. In six career starts, Hamlin has one top five finish, and two top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 23.8.

10. Kurt Busch: 15-1 odds

Kurt Busch is hoping to rebound from a frustrating finish in the Coca Cola 600.

In his last four starts at Dover, Busch has finishes of 42nd, 29th, 34th, and 20th. In seventeen career starts at Dover, Busch has two top five finishes, four top ten finishes, and an average finish of 21.4.

Also, keep an eye on Mark Martin (12-1 odds), Dale Earnhardt Jr (40-1 odds), David Reutimann (60-1 odds), Clint Bowyer (50-1 odds), and Jeff Burton (30-1 odds)

Great dark horse picks include Juan Pablo Montoya (75-1 odds), Joey Logano (50-1 odds), Jamie McMurray (35-1 odds), Martin Truex Jr (25-1 odds), and Brian Vickers (40-1 odds)

Odds maker’s top ten

1. Kyle Busch 5-1 odds
2. Jimmie Johnson 6-1 odds
3. Greg Biffle 7-1 odds
4. Carl Edwards 7-1 odds
5. Jeff Gordon 8-1 odds
6. Matt Kenseth 10-1 odds
7. Tony Stewart 12-1 odds
8. Denny Hamlin 12-1 odds
9. Mark Martin 12-1 odds
10. Kurt Busch 15-1 odds

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