Is This The Year For Mark Martin

Daytona International Speedway -- 02/15/09

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Thursday Feb 12 2009 12:41pm

The 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup season will be in full swing on Sunday with the waving of the green flag for the 51st running of the Daytona 500. After nearly three months of on-track silence, the engines will echo throughout Central Florida. Hendrick Motorsports is always a favorite at the super speedways, but Joe Gibbs Racing dominated the restrictor plate races in 2008, winning three out of four. Earnhardt Ganassi Racing, fresh off a November merger, has displayed some speed, as Martin Truex Jr will lead the field to the green flag on Sunday afternoon.

My top ten

1. 5-Mark Martin: 12-1 odds

Is this the year Mark Martin finally wins the Daytona 500? This will be his 25th attempt at the Harley J. Earl trophy, perhaps the most coveted in NASCAR. Now with Hendrick Motorsports, an organization boasting six Daytona 500 wins, Martin has his best opportunity to finally win the most prominent race on the Sprint Cup tour. In 2007, while driving for Ginn Racing, Martin was just inches shy of capturing his first win in the Great American Race, as Kevin Harvick had the edge. Martin led the most laps in the 1997 Daytona 500. In 2008, Martin posted finishes of 31st and tenth.

In 47 career starts, Martin has yet to win at Daytona; however, he has posted nine top five finishes, seventeen top ten finishes, and has an average finish of 17.8. His best finish at Daytona is second, and it occurred in February of 2007.

2. 18-Kyle Busch: 5-1 odds

Kyle Busch dominated this race a year ago, leading more than sixty laps. However, he was unable to take advantage of the superior equipment and finished in the fourth position. Busch was frustrated following the minor setback, but as well all recall, this team went on a tear after February. Busch won eight races in 2008, and one of those wins was at Daytona in July. Furthermore, Busch won at Talladega in April. Many odds makers deem Busch as the odds-on favorite to win the 51st running of the Daytona 500.

In eight career starts at Daytona, Kyle Busch has one victory, four top five finishes, and four top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 15.6.

3. 88-Dale Earnhardt Jr: 7-1 odds

Dale Earnhardt Jr is unambiguously the fan favorite, and one of the odds-on favorites in this year’s Daytona 500. As one of the sport’s most skilled restrictor plate drivers, Earnhardt is habitually a favorite when the Sprint Cup Series visits Daytona and Talladega. In the Bud Shootout last Saturday evening, Earnhardt Jr spent the majority of the race near the front, but when he dropped back to regroup, he was involved in an accident. Expect the 2004 Daytona 500 to stay with the lead group for most of the afternoon. In 2008, Earnhardt Jr won the Bud Shootout and one of the Gatorade Duel events. He also posted finishes of eighth and ninth.

In eighteen career starts at Daytona, Dale Earnhardt Jr has two wins, six top five finishes, and eleven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 13.6. He has seven total restrictor wins throughout his career.

4. 24-Jeff Gordon: 8-1 odds

The 1997, 1999, and 2005 winner of this event hopes to add a fourth Daytona 500 trophy to his mantle. Jeff Gordon’s career at Daytona is among the best in NASCAR history, so another triumph in the Great American Race would surprise no one. Nevertheless, his 2008 statistics at Daytona are less than flattering. He finished 39th last February due to a suspension failure, and finish 30th in July after he was turned on the final restart of the race. With that said, the performance was there, as he led 51 laps total at Daytona 2008.

In thirty-two career starts at Daytona, Jeff Gordon owns six wins, most among current drivers, eleven top five finishes, and seventeen top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 15.2.

5. 48-Jimmie Johnson: 8-1 odds

Jimmie Johnson heads into another season as the defending Sprint Cup champion. Johnson won this race in 2006, and has materialized as one of the sport’s top super speedway racers. Nonetheless, he has not finished in the top ten at Daytona since July of 2007. Johnson has already accomplished just about you can accomplish in NASCAR, so at this point in his career, it is time to just collect trophies and solidify his legacy. In 2008, Johnson posted finishes of 27th and 23rd at Daytona.

In fourteen career starts at Daytona, Johnson has one victory, five top five finishes, and eight top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 13.9. He has ten total top five finishes at restrictor plate venues.

6. 11-Denny Hamlin: 15-1 odds

After winning the Bud Shootout in his rookie season in 2006, Denny Hamlin has not backed up that victory on the super speedways; however, he displayed progress, especially at Daytona where he led a total of 38 laps at the 2.5-mile super speedway. Joe Gibbs Racing as a whole won three of the four races that require a restrictor plate; however, Hamlin was not one of the victors. While he may not be considered an overwhelming favorite like his teammate Kyle Busch, Hamlin and the No. 11 team are more than capable of winning their first Daytona 500. In 2008, Hamlin scored finishes of 17th and 26th.

In six career starts at Daytona, Hamlin does not have a points-paying win. However, he won the 2006 Bud Shootout and the 2008 Gatorade Duel event. He has an average finish of 26.8.

7. 29-Kevin Harvick: 18-1 odds

Kevin Harvick opened some eyes last weekend when he passed Jamie McMurray on the final lap of the Bud Shootout. It was not the first time Harvick stole a victory away from another driver. In the 2007 Daytona 500, Harvick came out of nowhere to edge out Mark Martin for the victory. The 2001 rookie of the year has a knack for putting himself in position to win at Daytona late in the race. So if Harvick is still on the track on the last lap, keep an eye on that yellow and red Chevrolet. In 2008, Harvick scored finishes of fourteenth and twelfth.

In fifteen career starts at Daytona, Harvick has one win, three top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 15.9.

8. 14-Tony Stewart: 15-1 odds

It will be a bit unusual to watch Tony Stewart pilot a red Office Depot car instead of the recognizable orange Home Depot ride. Stewart traded his hardware for office supplies and will drive the Office Depot Chevrolet in this year’s Daytona 500. Stewart Haas Racing receives its engine support from Hendrick Motorsports, so that is an advantage. However, this organization has enjoyed minimal success. Nevertheless, only a fool would completely discount the two-time champion, as he chases his first Daytona 500 victory. In 2008, Stewart posted finishes of third and twentieth.

In twenty career starts at Daytona, Stewart has two wins, in 2005 and 2006 July races, six top five finishes, and ten top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 17.7. He has three career wins on restrictor plate tracks.

9. 99-Carl Edwards: 12-1 odds

A super speedway victory eludes Carl Edwards; however he finished second to Kyle Busch last July, and came within inches of the victory. Edwards finished nineteenth in last year’s Daytona 500.

In eight career starts at Daytona, Edwards has two top five finishes, and two top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 21.9.

10. 39-Ryan Newman: 30-1 odds

The defending Daytona 500 champion hopes to become the first back-to-back winner of the event since Sterling Marlin in 1994 and 1995 while driving for Morgan McClure Motorsports. Newman drove for Penske Racing in 2008, he will drive for Stewart Haas Racing in 2009.

In fourteen career starts at Daytona, Newman has two top five finishes, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 19.9.

Also, keep an eye on Kurt Busch (15-1 odds), Matt Kenseth (25-1 odds), Jamie McMurray (25-1 odds), Jeff Burton (30-1 odds), and Martin Truex Jr (25-1 odds)

Great dark horse picks include David Ragan (25-1 odds), Brian Vickers (40-1 odds), Juan Pablo Montoya (40-1 odds), Casey Mears (50-1 odds), and David Reutimann (75-1 odds)

Odds Maker’s Top Ten

1. Kyle Busch 5-1 odds
2. Dale Earnhardt Jr 7-1 odds
3. Jimmie Johnson 8-1 odds
4. Jeff Gordon 8-1 odds
5. Carl Edwards 12-1 odds
6. Mark Martin 12-1 odds
7. Denny Hamlin 15-1 odds
8. Tony Stewart 15-1 odds
9. Kurt Busch 15-1 odds
10. Kevin Harvick 18-1 odds

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User	Comment
Karlee	He`s not there yet, not enough for me to bet on. He may be a seasoned driver, an excellent driver who`s done well in the past, but that doesn`t make him a winner this year.
ryder_29	He may not have won any races in the past, but he`s already a veteran NASCAR driver and that`s what makes him unique. Even though he`s in his early 50`s, age does not make him stop driving.
brix12	It was Matt Kenseth who won the Daytona 500 race instead of Mark Martin. He had been driving since 1981, when he started his first career as a Nascar driver in North Wilkesboro but has not won a single race up to now.
jade06	I think Mark Martin fits to be a second tier. But he still got a fighting spirit to keep driving until he wins in the future races this year.
Tetchie	Mark Martin might be winning the race sometime this year. It`s not just his time to bag the trophy home. Maybe he needs to improve his driving skills more.
2nd Place	Mark does not seem to be gaining any ground at the moment but then again its still early in the season and even last year he did not start out doing so hot. Toward the end of the year he starting showing pretty well until JJ put the smackdown on him and everyone else
FastTrack	I don`t see Mark Martin as being a major contender this year however I do see him being in something like the top ten like he was last year. Martin can just never seem to get the breaks that some of the other drivers do
spinout	Martin is a good driver. He`s not a superstar but he`s won his fair share through the years. I`d like to see him do something significant this season just for his longevity and love for the sport.
RaceFan88	Just like the Oscars, people hope for the one who has so many opportunities but never wins the big one. Mark Martin has probably his best shot in years by being on the Hendrick team but I`m not sure that he`ll be able to pull off a championship by even being there. He definitely has the experience behind him; now let`s hope he has the burning desire to win that pushes him just a little harder than the rest.
kevin	I think Mark Martin has as good a chance as any do this year of winning so far. He is not doing great, but then he is not doing bad either, and this matches just about all the top contenders this year so far.
Casey Hillman	Mark Martin has been consistently improving year after year and his support team has been improving as well. we may not see it this year but some year soon in the future mark martin is going to go to the top of the group and shine like the morning sun.
Elgar	If Martin could pull it off don`t you think he would have before? I don`t want to knock the guy but really that many times you would think he would be pissed and just quit instead.
Cal	Martin could be more but it seems like he is holding himself back or someone else is, maybe its a plot to take another shot and just blow everyone away when the time comes?
goJJgo	Martin is a decent driver but I consider him second tier. There are too many drivers in the upper echelon like JJ, Earnhardt and Gordon to even think that Martin would pull it off. He`s a tough old bird though to keep at it for a quarter of a century.
jeremy	yeah, i should have listed allmendinger as a darkhorse.
navigator07	I noticed that some of the veteran drivers were ranked by odds at the third, fourth or fifth rank. Martin has been racing for a long time, it`s good to know that he still got a fighting spirit to win for the Sprint Cup season 2009.
maddox8	How come Joey Logano wasn`t included at the great dark horse picks? I didn`t even see AJ Allmendinger on the list. If Mark Martin was able to win the Sprint Cup season this year, then his car manufacturer Ford would also be given recognition.
roadrunner	Sorry to be harsh but Martin hasn`t won it so far because he`s just not a top driver. He`s good but not even close to the top. I think we`re going to see Kyle Busch doing some great things this season.
littlebit	I honestly don`t know how big a chance Martin but you know you have to admire a guy who keeps trying 25 times to win that trophy. I hope he has a good showing at least.
Ben Smith	I`ll be rooting for Mark Martin this year and have already placed an early bet on him to win the championship. I can spare a $100 and I could sure use the $1200 if I win. lol
MasterModder	I feel that Dale Earnhardt Jr. or Jimmie Johnson will win this year and the odd makers seem to feel the very same way according to the stats as they are above. Sure Mark Martin has a chance and he is a good bet to place this year, like most of the drivers listed above, but its still to early to be locking yourself into any rigid position.
Cheryl Simmons	While it looks like Mark Martin has a chance to win the Daytona 500, as you see there are several others who have a equal or better chance to do so as well. Kyle Busch is the early favorite to win this year due to the low odds he already has so very early in the season.