Stewart is ready to win in his own car

Richmond International Raceway -- 05/2/2009

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Friday May 1 2009 7:22am

Last weekend’s race provided more excitement than the previous eight combined, arguably. Unfortunately, eight fans were injured due to the last lap wreck when Carl Edwards’ Ford Fusion went air born and caught the frontstretch guardrail. No one was critically injured thank goodness.

This weekend, the Sprint Cup Series visits the 0.75-mile track in Richmond, Virginia. Richmond International Raceway is a favorite for many of the drivers, as well as the fans.

Brad Keselowski won his first race last week, could we see another first-time winner this weekend? David Reutimann, David Ragan, and Marcos Ambrose are solid candidates to accomplish that. However, the favorites for this race are the usual suspects.

1. Tony Stewart: 7-1 odds

Jeff Gordon and Mark Martin have been able to do it. Is Tony Stewart the next to end a winless skid? Of course, Stewart’s winless drought of fifteen races is much shorter than those of Gordon and Martin, but very few drivers are as hungry as the two-time champion. Stewart won his first career Winston Cup race at Richmond in the fall of 1999. He came close to winning this race last fall. This could be the week that Stewart finally wins a race in a car that his team fields. If he does win, it would be the first time a driver won in a car that he owns since Ricky Rudd won at Martinsville in October of 1998, which was before Stewart’s rookie season.

In his last four starts at Richmond, Stewart has posted finishes of eighth, second, fourth, and second.

In twenty career starts at Richmond, Stewart has three victories, eight top five finishes, and fourteen top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 10.4. He has six career wins on short tracks and an average finish of 13.0.

2. Denny Hamlin: 6-1 odds

Denny Hamlin once said that winning at Richmond would be as satisfying as winning the Daytona 500. He hails from Chesterfield, which is a neighboring city to Richmond. Last year, Hamlin led 381 of 410 laps before he cut a tire late, damaging any chance at victory. Hamlin feels as if this track owes him one, and he could receive the big payoff this weekend. He is one of the clear-cut favorites to win the Crown Royal 400.

In his last four starts at Richmond, Hamlin has scored finishes of third, sixth, twenty-fourth, and third.

In six career starts at Richmond, Hamlin has posted three top five finishes, and four top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 8.8. He has one career short track win, and has an average finish of 9.8.

3. Jimmie Johnson: 9-2 odds

Up until 2007, the Richmond International Raceway was one of Jimmie Johnson’s worst tracks. However, the Chad Knaus-led team finally mastered the 0.75-mile D-shaped oval, and he has won three of the last four races held at the Virginia-based facility. Johnson is a threat to win on any track, and there is no reason to believe that he will not be a factor this weekend as well. Look for Johnson to contend for a fourth win at Richmond under the lights. He is the odds-on favorite to win this weekend.

In his last four starts at Richmond, Johnson has recorded three wins, and a thirtieth place finish.

In fourteen career starts at Richmond, Johnson owns three victories, four top five finishes, and four top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 17.5. He has nine career wins on short tracks, and an average finish of 13.0.

4. Kyle Busch: 6-1 odds

Kyle Busch was involved in the memorable finish last year in this race. After booting Dale Earnhardt Jr out of the way, Busch finished in the second position behind Clint Bowyer. Busch became public number one following his clash with NASCAR’s most popular driver. The next race held at Richmond, Earnhardt Jr returned the favor, but it was not for the win. Busch is still searching for his first Sprint Cup win at Richmond. His first career Nationwide Series win was at Richmond in 2004.

In his last four starts at Richmond, Kyle Busch has posted finishes of second, twentieth, second, and fifteenth.

In eight career starts at Richmond, Kyle Busch has yet to find victory lane, but he has scored six top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 6.8. He owns two career wins on short tracks, and an average finish of 12.5.

5. Kurt Busch: 8-1 odds

For the first time since April of 2005, Kurt Busch leads the Sprint Cup championship standings. As before, he is leading by being consistent, as well as badfast. Kurt Busch is actually outperforming his younger brother Kyle on a consistent basis. Busch won the fall race at Richmond in 2005, his final year with Roush Fenway Racing. His Penske Racing team has their program in tact in 2009, and he is set to challenge the heavy hitters for the Sprint Cup championship. Expect a solid performance from the elder Busch.

In his last four starts at Richmond, Kurt Busch has placed finishes of fifth, ninth, 42nd, and tenth.

In sixteen career starts at Richmond, Kurt Busch one win, two top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 19.1. He has seven career wins on short tracks, and an average finish of 18.4.

6. Jeff Gordon: 8-1 odds

Following a blazing hot start to the season, Jeff Gordon has cooled off some. At Phoenix, pit road penalty hampered his hopes of another solid finish. At Talladega, he was involved in a multi-car pileup on lap six of the 188-lap event. In the meantime, he lost the championship lead to Kurt Busch. He looks to rebound this weekend at Richmond, which is one of Gordon’s better tracks. Gordon can sometimes fall into streaks, and based on the last two races, that could be the case. He hopes that the streaky tendency is nonexistent this weekend. He should have a solid race at Richmond.

In his last four starts at Richmond, Gordon has placed finishes of fourth, fourth, eighth, and ninth.

In thirty-two career starts at Richmond, Jeff Gordon owns two wins, twelve top five finishes, and twenty top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 15.1. He has fifteen career wins on short tracks, and an average finish of 11.1.

7. Mark Martin: 8-1 odds

Mark Martin has ridden a figurative roller coaster the last two weekends. He won for the first time since 2005 at Phoenix. A week later, he finished 43rd at Talladega. The good news is that he will finish no worse than he did last week. Richmond is similar to Phoenix in the fact that it is a shorter flat track. Typically, the same drivers that run well at Phoenix run well at Richmond, which bodes well for Martin. Martin should be a factor on Saturday evening.

In his last four starts at Richmond, Martin has scored finishes of seventeenth, twenty-first, third, and fifth.

In forty-six career starts at Richmond, Martin has one victory, fifteen top five finishes, and twenty-five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.1. He has seven career wins on short tracks, and an average finish of 12.9.

8. Greg Biffle: 20-1 odds

Greg Biffle has finished in the top ten in each of the last three races, moving back into Chase for the Championship contention. Biffle has never won a Sprint Cup race at Richmond, but he is usually competitive. He is still searching for his first win of the season, and do not be surprised if he accomplishes that this weekend. Biffle is consistently the top performing driver out of the Roush Fenway Racing contingent.

In his last four starts at Richmond, Biffle has placed finishes of nineteenth, 39th, fourteenth, and fourteenth.

In thirteen career starts at Richmond, Biffle has scored two top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 15.7. He has six career top five finishes of short tracks, and an average finish of 16.9.

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr: 20-1 odds

Dale Earnhardt Jr nearly won this race a year ago before he was unceremoniously dumped by his greatest foe Kyle Busch. Earnhardt Jr scored a much-needed second place finish at Talladega last week, and he hopes the momentum follows him in Richmond. Other than the restrictor plate venues, Richmond may be Earnhardt Jr’s best track. He won this race as a rookie in 2000.

In his last four starts at Richmond, Earnhardt Jr has placed finishes of thirteenth, thirtieth, fifteenth, and fourth.

In nineteen career starts at Richmond, Earnhardt Jr owns three wins, eight top five finishes, and ten top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.1. He has four career wins on short tracks, and an average finish of 12.1.

10. David Reutimann: 50-1 odds

Sometimes I will place a dark horse driver in the top ten. This week, it is Michael Waltrip Racing driver David Reutimann. He is enjoying a career year thus far, and Richmond is where he began his rise to stardom. Last fall, he led 104 laps en route to his ninth place finish, which at the time was his career best finish. He could be the Sprint Cup Series’ next first time winner.

In his four career starts at Richmond, Reutimann has scored finishes of 29th, thirteenth, twenty-second, and ninth.

In four career starts at Richmond, Reutimann has one top ten finish and an average finish of 18.2. His career average finish on short tracks is 21.9.

Also, keep an eye on Matt Kenseth (25-1 odds), Jeff Burton (40-1 odds), Kevin Harvick (30-1 odds), Clint Bowyer (30-1 odds), Ryan Newman (60-1 odds), and Carl Edwards (10-1 odds)

Great dark horse picks include Juan Pablo Montoya (75-1 odds), Martin Truex Jr (50-1 odds), Marcos Ambrose (100-1 odds), Sam Hornish Jr (100-1 odds), and Paul Menard (100-1 odds)

Disagree with my picks, here are the odds maker’s top ten

1. Jimmie Johnson 9-2 odds
2. Kyle Busch 6-1 odds
3. Denny Hamlin 6-1 odds
4. Tony Stewart 7-1 odds
5. Kurt Busch 8-1 odds
6. Jeff Gordon 8-1 odds
7. Mark Martin 8-1 odds
8. Carl Edwards 10-1 odds
9. Greg Biffle 20-1 odds
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr 20-1 odds

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