Carl Edwards Looks To Continue Speedway Dominance

Auto Club Speedway Fontana -- 02/22/2009

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Thursday Feb 19 2009 1:26pm

After a tempestuous weekend in Daytona, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Fontana, Califonia, the Auto Club Speedway, for the Auto Club 500. While many fans were disenchanted with the outcome of the Daytona 500, or the fact that it was rain-shortened, they must look ahead to this weekend’s event and hope for better results. Last year, weather soaked the speedway, forcing both the Nationwide Series and Sprint Cup Series races to be delayed until Monday. Hopefully, that will not be the case this year.

Bettors, look for the usual suspects this weekend to contend; Roush Fenway Racing, Hendrick Motorsports, and Joe Gibbs Racing. However, look for some strong showings from Red Bull Racing, Richard Childress Racing, and Richard Petty Motorsports.

1. 99-Carl Edwards: 9-2 odds

Carl Edwards is the obvious pick for this weekend’s Auto Club 500. He is the defending champion of this event, and he won seven races on tracks that were 1.5-miles or 2-miles in length. Edwards reigned supreme on the speedway facilities. There is no reason to believe that anything has changed. Of course, he has his teammates, Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth in particular, to worry about, as well as the Hendrick Motorsports contingent. Edwards will contend for the win, and is a smart bet for this weekend. In 2008, Edwards placed finishes of first and sixth.

In nine career starts at California, Edwards has one victory (2008), six top five finishes, and eight top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 6.7. He has fourteen career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 11.3.

2. 17-Matt Kenseth: 10-1 odds

Talk about confidence, Matt Kenseth is the Daytona 500 champion, and he is heading to one of his best tracks. He quickly disposed of his 36-race winless skid. Kenseth won this race in 2006 and 2007, and like Edwards, tracks that range from 1.5 to 2-miles in length are his bread and butter. The 2003 Sprint Cup champion hopes to become the first driver since Jeff Gordon in 1997 to begin the season by winning the opening two races. Expect Kenseth to challenge the likes of Edwards and Jimmie Johnson this weekend. In 2008, Kenseth placed finishes of fifth in both races held in Fontana, California.

In fourteen career starts at California, Kenseth has scored two wins (2006 and 2007), six top five finishes, and ten top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 9.6. He has eleven career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 14.0.

3. 48-Jimmie Johnson: 4-1 odds

It was not the Daytona 500 that Jimmie Johnson anticipated, but as many drivers and crew chiefs will tell you, the real season begins at California. It is the first non-restrictor plate race, and it typically gives you an indication as to who is going to emerge as a weekly threat. Johnson won the last race held at the 2-mile facility last September, but it was a night race, and it was held at a much warmer part of the year. Still, you have to include Johnson in the list of heavy favorites for this weekend’s Auto Club 500. In 2008, Johnson posted finishes of first and second at California.

In twelve career starts at California, Johnson has scored three wins (first career win in 2002, 2007, and 2008), eight top five finishes, and eight top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 5.9. He has 30 career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 10.0.

4. 18-Kyle Busch: 5-1 odds

Kyle Busch led 88 of 152 laps in Daytona last weekend, but he did not earn the Daytona 500 trophy. While it was a vexing weekend for Busch, there is a new race on the horizon. If Busch and his Joe Gibbs Racing team can put the Daytona disaster behind them, they will be ones to watch at California. Busch struggled last fall on the speedways, but this team did their homework throughout the off season in order to alleviate the issues that plagued them. In 2008, Kyle Busch scored finishes of fourth and seventh.

In nine career starts at California, Kyle Busch has one win (his first win in 2005), three top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 9.9. He has seven career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 17.1.

5. 16-Greg Biffle: 10-1 odds

Last fall, Greg Biffle was the only driver that could somewhat keep up with Jimmie Johnson. He finished second in that race, propelling him into the Chase for the Championship. The 2005 winner of this event is classically a threat on tracks such as California. Expect Biffle to be right there with his Roush Fenway Racing teammates battling contending for the win on Sunday. Biffle was unspectacular at Daytona, so he looks to recapture the momentum he built in 2008. Biffle made his first career Cup start at California in 2002. He placed finishes of fifteenth and second at California.

In twelve career starts at California, Biffle has one win (2005), three top five finishes, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 18.2. He has thirteen career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 15.9.

6. 24-Jeff Gordon: 15-1 odds

Jeff Gordon is coming off a thirteenth place finish at Daytona. In 2008, Gordon’s Achilles Heel was the speedway tracks. He and his team never found a comfortable balance. They improved as the season progressed, but were never a serious threat to win races. The No. 24 team is on a mission to prove that they are still among the NASCAR elite, and they intend to begin their mission this weekend at California. He won the inaugural race at California in 1997. In 2008, Jeff Gordon placed finishes of third and fifteenth.

In seventeen career starts at California, Jeff Gordon has three wins (1997, 1999, and 2004), eight top five finishes, and eight top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.5. He has forty career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 12.0.

7. 6-David Ragan: 25-1 odds

If David Ragan is going to score his first career victory in 2009, it is likely going to occur on a track such as California. Ragan displayed perceptible improvement in 2008, and many feel as if he is poised for a breakthrough season in 2009. Ragan is one of those drivers that I typically classify as a dark horse; however, he is beginning to separate himself from other dark horse drivers such as David Reutimann or Reed Sorenson. He is beginning to emerge as a favorite, especially at tracks similar to California. Recall, he finished fourth at Michigan. He placed finishes of 14th and 13th at California in 2008.

In four career starts, Ragan’s best finish at California is twelfth. He has an average finish of 13.8. He has eleven top ten finishes on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 20.7.

8. 5-Mark Martin: 15-1 odds

My pick to win the Daytona 500 did not pan out. Mark Martin finished in the sixteenth position last week, not the way he was hoping to begin his tenure with Hendrick Motorsports. Expect Martin and the No. 5 group to rebound at California this weekend where the Hendrick Motorsports cars are typically fast. Martin is no slouch at the 2-mile oval either. While Martin is not the safest bet, nor is he an odds-on favorite, he is a solid pick and it would surprise no one if he was the driver pulling into the winner’s circle on Sunday. In 2008, Martin posted a sixteenth place finish in is only start at California.

In fifteen career starts at California, Martin has one victory (1998), four top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 13.3. He has eighteen career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 12.7.

9. 29-Kevin Harvick: 25-1 odds

Kevin Harvick finished second last week at Daytona, continuing his run of solid finishes that dates back to last year. However, his string of second to 43rd place finishes is now over two years old. While tracks such as California are not necessarily Harvick’s strength, he will likely fall somewhere in the sixth to tenth place bracket. In 2008, Harvick posted finishes of fourth and eighth at California.

In thirteen career starts at California, Harvick has yet to win, but he has posted one top five finish and four top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 17.9. He has seven career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 15.8.

10. 14-Tony Stewart: 20-1 odds

This week is the veritable test for Tony Stewart and his Stewart Haas Racing outfit. Sure, they were solid at Daytona, but how will this upstart team perform on a downforce track. The old Haas CNC Racing was mediocre at best, but with a significant driver and personnel upgrade, you should notice a marked improvement. Stewart and Ryan Newman will be interesting to follow this weekend. In 2008, Stewart scored finishes of 22nd and seventh at California. This is one of the tracks that Stewart has yet to conquer.

In fifteen career starts at California, Stewart has yet to win, but he has scored three top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 16.4. He has eighteen career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 12.6.

Also, keep an eye on Dale Earnhardt Jr (15-1 odds), Clint Bowyer (35-1 odds), Denny Hamlin (18-1 odds), Jeff Burton (35-1 odds), Ryan Newman (100-1 odds), and Kasey Kahne (30-1 odds)

Great dark horse picks include Brian Vickers (25-1 odds), Juan Pablo Montoya (100-1 odds), A.J. Allmendinger (100-1 odds), Jamie McMurray (40-1 odds), and David Reutimann (100-1 odds)

Odds Maker’s Top Ten

1. Jimmie Johnson 4-1 odds
2. Carl Edwards 9-2 odds
3. Kyle Busch 5-1 odds
4. Greg Biffle 10-1 odds
5. Matt Kenseth 10-1 odds
6. Jeff Gordon 15-1 odds
7. Dale Earnhardt Jr 15-1 odds
8. Mark Martin 15-1 odds
9. Denny Hamlin 18-1 odds
10. Tony Stewart 20-1 odds

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brownlee59	I really like Carl Edwards. He has a very friendly personality. I hope he does good this year. My favorite is Kasey Kahne, but personality wise I like Carl. He didn`t do too bad last year. But this year even though it just started, he needs to step it up.
	I agree FastTrack. I am (sadly) seeing that Edwards is doing ok in the top 5 but not consistantly. I still root for him though, he`s a favorite and I can`t help but believe the next race and the one after that he`ll get into his stride and take off.
FastTrack	I am not seeing where this guy is saying that Carl is going to be a major player this year at all. So far we see Jimmie Johnson claiming his turf, and not to many others seem to have found their ground this year so far.
FastEddie	I dunno. So far Jermey has done a pretty good job in his forecasting in my opinion, with the exception of the Greg Biffle massive failure, and I`ve always regarded him as an on and off type of driver anyway.
DentedFender	So far Carl Edwards has not done as well as you expected in my opinion. Jimmie Johnson is already on the way back to his usual spot, Matt Kenseth is around about what you thought though, and Greg Biffle crashed and burned.
roadrunner	Well, we all know that Kenseth did it again but it remains to be seen if he can do it again for the record. I really thought Edwards would have this one for sure.
Elgar	Kenseth has something crazy going on, its like people want to rub him for good luck or something. Then again if I had that much riding on a sport I might think the same too.
Cal	Kenseth is rolling off the lips of a good many people lately but I am not sure the odds are with him. He is going up against some that are pretty feisty when it comes to taking over the lead.
maddox8	Wherever the race is, and so is Carl Edwards. We can`t simply see him not around the race because he has become the media`s one of the most favorite drivers in the NASCAR history.
navigator07	Jimmie Johnson landed on top 1 again for odds maker`s list. But I`m going to watch Matt Kenseth on the race. It looks like he`s in good spirits lately since he won the race at the Daytona 500