Earnhardt Jr ready to silence the critics

Talladega Superspeedway -- 04/26/2009

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Thursday Apr 23 2009 2:15pm

Last week, I predicted Mark Martin to win at Phoenix, and he won. It is a rare occasion when I am right, so I am enjoying it. Hopefully, I can make it two in a row at Talladega. For the first time since February, the Sprint Cup Series will slap on the restrictor plate and ride in a traffic jam moving at 185 miles per hour for 500 miles.

Obviously, the quartet of Hendrick Motorsports drivers leads the cast of favorites. Dale Earnhardt Jr is the only driver from the Hendrick Motorsports stables that has yet to win a race in 2009. That could change this weekend. The two Joe Gibbs Racing teammates of Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin typically run well at Talladega, as well as the Stewart Haas Racing duo of Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman. Additionally, do not count out the drivers of Richard Childress Racing, Roush Fenway Racing, and Penske Racing.

1. Dale Earnhardt Jr: 9-1 odds

From zero to hero and back to zero all in one night. That is the perfect description for Dale Earnhardt Jr at Phoenix last weekend, as he placed a 31st place finish after leading 63 laps. The Sprint Cup Series arrives at Earnhardt Jr’s best track for this weekend’s race at Talladega. It is the perfect time for NASCAR’s most popular driver to win a race and temporarily quiet the critics that have hounded him ever since the beginning of the season. Earnhardt Jr is always a threat to win at the restrictor plate tracks; however, he has not won at Talladega since October of 2004. Expect Earnhardt Jr to return to victory lane this weekend.

In his last four starts at Talladega, Earnhardt Jr has placed finishes of seventh, fortieth, tenth and 28th.

In eighteen career starts at Talladega, Earnhardt Jr has five wins, seven top five finishes, and ten top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 14.8. He has seven career wins on restrictor plate tracks, and an average finish of 16.5.

2. Kyle Busch: 5-1 odds

The defending champion of this race is hit or miss at the 2.66-mile giant of a track. Although he won this race a year ago, this track has not been very kind to him. Prior to his win last spring, his last two finishes were 36th or worse. Basically, it is checkers or wreckers for Kyle Busch at Talladega. He dominated the Daytona 500 in February before his involvement in a multi-car wreck, so this team produces a solid restrictor plate program. Busch is the odds-on favorite to win this weekend’s event. Expect him either contend for the win, or wreck out.

In his last four starts at Talladega, Kyle Busch has scored finishes of 36th, 37th, first, and fifteenth.

In eight career starts at Talladega, Kyle Busch has a win, one top five finish, and one top ten finish. He has an average finish of 25.8. He has two career wins on restrictor plate venues, and an average finish of 21.9.

3. Jeff Gordon: 8-1 odds

Jeff Gordon suffered his worst finish of the season last weekend at Phoenix, so he is more than ready for this weekend’s race at one of his best tracks statistically. Gordon leads all drivers in wins on tracks with the mandated use of restrictor plates. He is arguably the best in the draft. If he is still on the lead lap with just a handful of laps remaining, there is a good chance he will maneuver his way into contention. He is the safe bet for this weekend’s race. Expect another solid performance from Gordon and the No. 24 team at Talladega.

In his last four starts at Talladega, Gordon has posted two wins, and finishes of 19th and 38th.

In thirty-two career starts at Talladega, Jeff Gordon has six wins, thirteen top five finishes, and sixteen top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 15.8. He has twelve career wins on restrictor tracks, and an average finish of 15.4.

4. Tony Stewart: 10-1 odds

Tony Stewart finally won at Talladega last fall, although it was a controversial win. Stewart was actually second when they crossed the finish line, but he was awarded the win after rookie driver Regan Smith was penalized for passing below the yellow line. It was Stewart’s only win of 2008, and his last win with Joe Gibbs Racing. He is now an owner, and his results are far from shabby. With six top ten in eight races, Stewart seems to be surpassing all preseason expectations, and his first win could occur this weekend.

In his last four starts at Talladega, Stewart has recorded finishes of 28th, eighth, 38th, and first.

In twenty career starts at Talladega, Stewart has one win, nine top five finishes, and twelve top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 13.3. He has three career wins on restrictor tracks, and an average finish of 14.4.

5. Jimmie Johnson: 9-1 odds

It is difficult to believe that Jimmie Johnson, the 2006 winner of this race, has not won at a restrictor plate track in three years. Every time the Sprint Cup Series races at Talladega or Daytona, Johnson is a factor. There is no reason to believe that he will not be a factor this weekend at Talladega. Johnson is riding a wave of momentum, as he has finished in the top five in each of the previous four races. The odds are that the streak will lengthen this weekend. Expect another stout performance from arguably NASCAR’s best team.

In his last four starts at Talladega, Johnson has scored finishes of second, second, thirteenth, and ninth.

In fourteen career starts at Talladega, Johnson has owns one victory, four top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 16.9. He has two career wins on restrictor plate tracks, and an average finish of 17.0.

6. Mark Martin: 15-1 odds

No other driver will enter the gates of Talladega with a grin as wide as Mark Martin. After winning his first race in nearly four years, Martin is ready for more. It has been twelve years since Martin last won at Talladega, but he is in Hendrick Motorsports equipment. Hendrick Motorsports has perhaps the best restrictor plate program in all of NASCAR. Martin is not really an odds-on favorite, but do not be surprised if he contends for the victory this weekend.

In his last four starts at Talladega, which were in 2005 and 2006, Martin placed finishes of 33rd, 41st, 35th, and eighth.

In forty-two career starts at Talladega, most of all active drivers, Martin has two wins, ten top five finishes, and twenty-two top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 15.5. He has two career wins on restrictor plate tracks, and an average finish of 16.7.

7. Denny Hamlin: 10-1 odds

It has been over a year since Denny Hamlin won his last race in the Sprint Cup Series. He has emerged into one of NASCAR’s better drivers in the draft, so anticipate a solid outing for Hamlin and the No. 11 group.

In his last four starts at Talladega, Hamlin has scored finishes of 21st, fourth, third, and 39th.

In six career starts at Talladega, Hamlin has two top five finishes, and two top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 18.3. He has two top five finishes on restrictor plate tracks, and an average finish of 22.8.

8. Ryan Newman: 40-1 odds

Ryan Newman won the 2008 Daytona 500, and he has placed three top ten finishes in his last four starts at Talladega. His odds of winning increase based on the fact that he drives for Stewart Haas Racing, with Hendrick Motorsports horsepower.

In his last four starts at Talladega, Newman has placed finishes of ninth, fifth, eighth, and forty-third.

In fourteen career starts at Talladega, Newman has three top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 19.6. He has one career win on restrictor tracks, and an average finish of 19.1.

9. Kurt Busch: 12-1 odds

Some have dubbed Kurt Busch as the best driver without a restrictor plate win. Based on statistics, that is an accurate assessment. Busch will be a contender this weekend at Talladega.

In his last four starts at Talladega, Kurt Busch has posted finishes of third, seventh, 39th, and 21st.

In sixteen career starts at Talladega, Kurt Busch has six top five finishes, and eleven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.5. He has never won on a restrictor track, but he has posted sixteen top five finishes, and has an average finish of 15.7.

10. Matt Kenseth: 20-1 odds

Matt Kenseth won the Daytona 500 earlier this year, and even though it was a rain-shortened race, his confidence in the draft has to have increased. Kenseth put himself in position to win the Daytona 500 by working his way to the front at the perfect time. I doubt he will do the same this weekend, but expect a solid showing for Kenseth and the No. 17 team.

In his last four starts at Talladega, Kenseth has scored finishes of fourteenth, 26th, 41st, and 26th.

In eighteen career starts at Talladega, Kenseth has three top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 18.0. He has one win on a restrictor plate track, and an average finish of 17.6.

Also, keep an eye on Clint Bowyer (30-1 odds), Kevin Harvick (20-1 odds), Jeff Burton (30-1 odds), Jamie McMurray (40-1 odds), and Carl Edwards (12-1 odds)

Great dark horse picks include A.J. Allmendinger (50-1 odds), Martin Truex Jr (40-1 odds), Juan Pablo Montoya (40-1 odds), David Reutimann (40-1 odds), and Michael Waltrip (50-1 odds)

Think my picks are ridiculous, check out the odds maker’s top ten

1. Kyle Busch 5-1 odds
2. Jeff Gordon 8-1 odds
3. Jimmie Johnson 9-1 odds
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr 9-1 odds
5. Tony Stewart 10-1 odds
6. Denny Hamlin 10-1 odds
7. Kurt Busch 12-1 odds
8. Carl Edwards 12-1 odds
9. Mark Martin 15-1 odds
10. Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick 20-1 odds

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