Johnson Is The Favorite, But Gordon Will Win At Vegas

Las Vegas Motor Speedway -- 03/02/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Thursday Feb 28 2008 12:06pm

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Sin City for the third race of the 2008 season. With a bit of luck, Mother Nature, and the track, will be in a better mood this weekend. Last week, it appeared as if Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson had picked up where they left off in 2007, but Carl Edwards made a bold statement by passing both drivers in the latter stages of the Auto Club 500 en route to his eighth career victory.

The question is- has Roush Fenway Racing caught Hendrick Motorsports? That is still to be determined. However, the race at California was a good sign for the Ford group as all five Roush Fenway cars spent some time in the top ten, and Yates Racing driver Travis Kvapil was able to hang in the top ten on two fresh tires. Unfortunately, a mechanical glitch relegated the 2003 Craftsman Truck Series champion to a 36th place finish.

At Las Vegas, expect the same cast of characters to run near the front at Las Vegas.

My top ten picks

1. Jeff Gordon- Odds +673

Jeff Gordon recovered from his disappointing Daytona 500 rather well at California, now Auto Club Speedway, on Monday. After dominating the early portion of the event, Gordon finished third behind Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson. Gordon appears to be on the brink of giving Hendrick Motorsports its first victory in 2008, not counting Dale Earnhardt, Jr.’s Bud Shootout and Gatorade Duel win. Jimmie Johnson has won this race in each of the last three seasons, but Gordon will be the man that ends his teammate’s Vegas supremacy.

In 10 starts at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Jeff Gordon has posted one win, five top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has posted an average finish of 12.9. He finished second in 2007, which was the first year in which they raced on the track’s new configuration.

2. Matt Kenseth- Odds +929

A typical start to a NASCAR Sprint Cup season would be Matt Kenseth winning at California and Jimmie Johnson winning at Las Vegas. However, Kenseth was unable to hold up his end of the bargain, but do not count him out at Vegas. Kenseth won this race in 2003 and 2004, though it was before the track’s reconfiguration. Other than Kyle Busch, Kenseth and his Roush Fenway Racing teammate seemed to be the only guys who were able to keep the Hendrick boys in sight at California.

In eight starts at Las Vegas, Matt Kenseth has posted two wins, four top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has posted an average finish of 7.6. He finished fourth in 2007, which was the first year of the track’s new configuration.

3. Kyle Busch- Odds +869

After starting the 2008 Sprint Cup season with two fourth place finishes, Kyle Busch is your championship leader. It is still too early for Busch fans to pop the champagne, however, he has started his tenure with Joe Gibbs Racing exceptionally well. Thus far, Kyle Busch and the 18 team have been the most solid from the Toyota camp. Busch will contend for the win at his home track in Las Vegas, but he seems to be just a small step behind Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, and Carl Edwards.

In four starts at Las Vegas, Kyle Busch has posted two top five finishes and three top ten finishes. His average finish is 13.8. He finished ninth in 2007, which was the first year they raced on the new configuration.

4. Jimmie Johnson- Odds +456

It is rare that a driver can dominate a track the way Jimmie Johnson has at Las Vegas. Not since Matt Kenseth in 2004 has another driver enjoyed the fruits of victory at the 1.5-mile oval. Johnson is the nascar odds-on favorite to four-peat this weekend, but really, can he win here again? Frankly, he can, but they will have to deal with some hungry competitors, starting with his teammate.

In six career starts at Las Vegas, Jimmie Johnson has three wins, three top five finishes, and four top ten finishes. He has posted an average finish of 6.0. He won the 2007 event, which was the first race at the track since its reconfiguration.

5. Carl Edwards- Odds +1025

Carl Edwards sent the Hendrick camp a direct message on Monday with his convincing win. Roush Fenway Racing is back, especially the 99 group. Edwards leads all Roush Fenway drivers with three career wins in the new car. Look for the 99 team to run with the leaders again, but it is Jeff Gordon’s turn to win.

In three career starts at Las Vegas, Carl Edwards has one top ten finish and a finishing average of 15.3. He finished sixth in 2007, which was the first year they raced on the track’s new configuration.

6. Tony Stewart- Odds +1027

Tony Stewart scored a solid 7th place finish at California on Monday, which was not bad considering the handling woes he encountered early in the race. Expect Stewart to perform at a higher level in Las Vegas, which is only one of four tracks Stewart has not won. Could there be an in-house bet going on at Joe Gibbs Racing as to which Toyota driver will reward the manufacturer with its first Sprint Cup victory? My money is on Tony Stewart.

In nine starts at Las Vegas, Tony Stewart has scored four top five finishes and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.2. He finished seventh in 2007, which was the first year they raced on the track’s new configuration.

7. Kurt Busch- Odds +1881

Kurt Busch is still seeking that elusive first win at his home track. The Miller Lite group struggled at California mainly due to track position. He started 36th, and then ran out of gas while running in the top ten. This week should be better for this team. Both Busch and Ryan Newman had top ten cars at California, so expect the same at Las Vegas.

In seven starts at Las Vegas, Kurt Busch has scored one top five finish and two top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 17.6. He finished 26th in 2007, which was the first year they raced on the track’s new configuration.

8. Kasey Kahne- Odds +1785

In four starts at Las Vegas, Kasey Kahne has scored two top five finishes and two top ten finishes. He has posted an average finish of 19.8. He finished 35th in 2007, which was the first year they raced on the track’s new configuration.

9. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Odds +1448

In eight starts at Las Vegas, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has scored one top five finish and two top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 20.8. He finished 11th in 2007, which was the first year they raced on the track’s new configuration.

10. Greg Biffle- Odds +1458

In four starts at Las Vegas, Greg Biffle has scored two top ten finishes and has an average finish of 17.5. He finished 16th in 2007, which was the first year they raced on the track’s new configuration.

Others to watch- Ryan Newman, Martin Truex, Jr., Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, and Jeff Burton

Darkhorse picks- Travis Kvapil, Brian Vickers, David Ragan, Robby Gordon, and Reed Sorenson

Stay Away from- Casey Mears, Jeremy Mayfield, Dario Franchitti, Sam Hornish, Jr., and J.J. Yeley

Oddsmakers Top Ten

1. Jimmie Johnson- Odds +456 2. Jeff Gordon- Odds +673 3. Kyle Busch- Odds +869 4. Matt Kenseth- Odds +929 5. Carl Edwards- Odds +1025 6. Tony Stewart- Odds +1027 7. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.- Odds +1448 8. Greg Biffle- Odds +1458 9. Kasey Kahne- Odds +1785 10. Kurt Busch- Odds +1881