Stewart Or One Of The Gordons Will Win At Infineon

Infineon Raceway -- 06/22/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Thursday Jun 19 2008 7:14am

For the first time in 2008, the Sprint Cup series will turn right at the road course in Sonoma, California. Infineon Raceway is one of two road course races on the Sprint Cup schedule. Expect to see a host of road racing specialists, such as Boris Said, Ron Fellows, and Scott Pruett.

Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon have dominated the road course races over the past decade, and Robby Gordon is not far behind. Kevin Harvick and Juan Pablo Montoya are the only other drivers besides Stewart, Jeff Gordon, and Robby Gordon to win on a road course since Ricky Rudd won this race in 2002.

Qualifying on Friday will be crucial, as track position is of utmost importance on road course venues. Most of the contenders will come from starting positions one through twelve.

1. 20-Tony Stewart: 4-1 nascar odds

Both Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon are overdue for victories in 2008, and there is no better track for either one of these past champions. However, Stewart and the 20 team are performing better than Gordon and the 24 team, so Stewart gets the nod. Stewart is a road-racing master, and has won more road course races this decade than any other driver, including Gordon. Last year, fuel mileage affected the outcome, and Stewart finished sixth after qualifying fifth.

In nine career starts at Infineon, Stewart has two wins, three top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 10.0. Stewart has six wins on road course tracks, and an average finish of 8.1.

2. 41-Scott Pruett: 15-1 nascar odds

Of all road course ringers, Scott Pruett may give the Cup boys the most trouble. He is an exceptional road course racer, and has a guaranteed a starting spot in the race on Sunday. Pruett is filling in for Reed Sorenson in the Target Dodge for Chip Ganassi Racing. Sorenson has struggled to keep the 41 team in the top 35 in the owner’s standings, which is why Ganassi has called on Pruett to give the 41 group a solid finish. It would surprise no one if Pruett played spoiler this weekend at Infineon. He finished third in the Nationwide Series race in Mexico City in April. Pruett did not start this race in 2007, and in 2006, he finished 30th .

In six career starts at Infineon, Pruett has one top five finish, and an average finish of 24.8, which is deceiving. He typically runs near the top five or top ten. Overall, he has three top five finishes, and five top ten finishes on both road courses. He has an average finish of 18.3.

3. 24-Jeff Gordon: 4-1 nascar odds

It is safe to say that Jeff Gordon is one of the best, if not the best road course racer of all time in NASCAR. His dominance at Infineon and Watkins Glen began in 1997, and he won six consecutive road course races from 1997 to 2000. Even during an off year, you can count on Gordon contending for wins on the road courses. This could be Gordon’s best opportunity to get back on track as we head into the second half of the season. Gordon is a safe bet at Infineon. In this race last year, Gordon finished seventh after starting the race in 41st.

In fifteen career starts at Infineon, Jeff Gordon owns five victories, nine top five finishes, and eleven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 9.7. His career on road courses includes nine wins, and an average finish of 11.1.

4. 7-Robby Gordon: 10-1 nascar odds

Put Robby Gordon in premier equipment and he may eclipse Stewart and Jeff Gordon as NASCAR’s top road racer. He swept the road course races in 2003 while driving for Richard Childress Racing. He currently drives for a team he owns, which operates on limited funds, so the races at Infineon and Watkins Glen are Gordon’s best chances to win a Sprint Cup race. Talent-wise, Gordon is the favorite, but his equipment is far inferior that that of Stewart, Jeff Gordon, and even Scott Pruett. Still, look for Gordon to be a solid contender. In this race last year, Gordon led the most laps, but he finished

In ten career starts at Infineon, Robby Gordon has one victory, two top five finishes, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 20.7. His career on road courses includes two wins, and an average finish of 15.1.

5. 29-Kevin Harvick: 8-1 nascar odds

Kevin Harvick has yet to win at Infineon, but he is quickly emerging as one of the series’ best road course racers. In 2006, he won at Watkins Glen, his only road course victory. Harvick has not performed up to par in 2008, so this could be an opportunity for him to turn his season around. Now that Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has snapped his winless skid, the media may start to harp on Harvick, as he has not won a race since the 2007 Daytona 500, a streak of 50 races. In this race last year, Harvick finished second after qualifying 22nd.

In seven career starts at Infineon, Harvick has two top five finishes, and an average finish of 15.1. His career on road courses includes one win, and an average finish of 16.6.

6. 42-Juan Pablo Montoya: 8-1 nascar odds

Juan Pablo Montoya made NASCAR history last year when he won his first Sprint Cup race. He became the first Colombian-born driver to win a race in NASCAR’s top echelon of racing. Although the win was by virtue of fuel mileage and track position, Montoya had one of the stronger cars. Heading into this weekend’s event, Montoya is one of several drivers hoping to turn his season around. He may not be an nascar odds-on favorite, but he is a solid bet.

Last year’s victory at Infineon was Montoya’s only start at the 1.99-mile road course.

7. 2-Kurt Busch: 20-1 nascar odds

Like Harvick, Kurt Busch has become a solid road course racer. He has yet to win a Sprint Cup race at Infineon or Watkins Glen, but he owns a Nationwide Series victory at Watkins Glen. Busch is one of several drivers looking to turn the corner on a disappointing season. Last year, Busch finished 22nd after he ran out of fuel while running in the top ten.

In seven career starts at Infineon, Kurt Busch has three top five finishes, and an average finish of 17.3. On the two road courses combined, Busch has an average finish of 20.1.

8. 60-Boris Said: 20-1 nascar odds

Always a fan favorite, Boris Said is sure to be a factor on Sunday. His No Fear Racing team must qualify their way into the show, but they will have the advantage of Roush Fenway Racing support. Said began competing on the road courses in the Sprint Cup series in 1999. He is one of the handful of road racing specialists that compete in NASCAR’s two road course races. For Said, Pruett, and Ron Fellows, this is their Daytona 500. Look for them to race to win, not to accumulate points.

In eight career starts at Infineon, Said has four top ten finishes, and an average finish of 17.6. His career on road courses includes six top ten finishes, and an average finish of 19.4.

9. 12-Ryan Newman: 30-1 nascar odds

Believe or not, Ryan Newman is one of NASCAR’s better road course racers. He finished second to Jeff Gordon in this race two years ago, and some may argue that he could have muscled his way around Gordon if he had another lap or two. As a rookie in 2002, Newman finished second to Tony Stewart at Watkins Glen without the comfort of power steering. He won a Nationwide Series race at Watkins Glen in 2005. Betting on Newman could turn out to be a clever decision. In this race last year, Newman finished 20th after a costly fuel mileage strategy.

In six career starts at Infineon, Newman has two top five finishes, and four top ten finishes. He has an impressive average finish of 9.8. His career on road course tracks includes three top five finishes, and an average finish of 12.2.

10. 18-Kyle Busch: 20-1 nascar odds

Kyle Busch won the Nationwide Series race in Mexico City two months ago against exceptional road racing aces such as Scott Pruett, Boris Said, and Marcos Ambrose. However, his true test of road racing expertise will come this weekend against Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, and Robby Gordon. Expect Busch to run near the top five. A victory would be a bit of a surprise. In this race last year, Busch finished eight after starting the race in 24th.

In three career starts at Infineon, Kyle Busch has one top ten finish, and an average finish of 19.7. His career on road courses includes three top ten finishes, and an average finish of 19.7.

Also, keep an eye on Carl Edwards (40-1 nascar odds), Jimmie Johnson (30-1 nascar odds), Ron Fellows (20-1 nascar odds), Marcos Ambrose (30-1 nascar odds), and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (40-1 nascar odds)

Great darkorse picks include Jamie McMurray (20-1 nascar odds), Dario Franchitti (60-1 nascar odds), A.J. Allmendinger (35-1 nascar odds), Max Papis (100-1 nascar odds), and Patrick Carpentier (30-1 nascar odds)

Stay away from Dave Blaney, J.J. Yeley, Joe Nemechek, Scott Riggs, and Michael McDowell

Odds Maker’s Top Ten

1. Jeff Gordon 4-1 nascar odds
2. Tony Stewart 4-1 nascar odds
3. Kevin Harvick 8-1 nascar odds
4. Juan Pablo Montoya 8-1 nascar odds
5. Robby Gordon 10-1 nascar odds
6. Scott Pruett 15-1 nascar odds
7. Kyle Busch 20-1 nascar odds
8. Denny Hamlin 20-1 nascar odds
9. Kurt Busch 20-1 nascar odds
10. Jamie McMurray 20-1 nascar odds

Ron Fellows and Boris Said are 20-1 nascar odds.