Kevin Harvick Plays Role As Darkhorse

New Hampshire International Speedway -- 09/14/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Friday Sep 12 2008 2:03pm

The Chase for the Championship is upon us. It begins this weekend at Loudon, New Hampshire for the Sylvania 300. Clint Bowyer is the defending champion, and Kurt Busch won the June race.

Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson, and Kyle Busch are perceived as the championship favorites, but the other nine drivers have ten races to prove that they can tame the ‘big three’.

1. 29-Kevin Harvick: 10-1 nascar odds

Two years ago, Kevin Harvick began the Chase for the Championship with an overwhelming victory at New Hampshire. Undoubtedly, he is hoping that history repeats itself this weekend. Harvick has momentum, and is overdue for a victory, as his last win occurred in the Daytona 500 back in February of 2007. The shorter flat tracks are Harvick’s strong suits, so look for him to, perhaps, dispel the dominance of Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, and Carl Edwards. In his last two races at the 1.058-mile track, Harvick has posted finishes of 17th and 14th.

In fifteen career starts at New Hampshire, Harvick has one win, three top five finishes, and eight top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.7.

2. 18-Kyle Busch: 6-1 nascar odds

Following a fifteenth place finish at Richmond, Kyle Busch is looking to repossess the momentum that he has carried throughout most of the 2008 season. Since his last win at Watkins Glen last month, Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson have struck hot, and have rivaled Busch as the championship favorite. Busch hopes to capitalize on an opportunity to erase any doubts that he is the driver to beat for the 2008 Sprint Cup championship. Only two of Busch’s eight wins occurred on tracks shorter than 1.5-miles in length…Dover and Darlington. In his last two visits to New Hampshire, Busch has recorded finishes of fourth and 25th.

In seven career starts at New Hampshire, Kyle Busch has one win, three top five finishes, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 15.7.

3. 48-Jimmie Johnson: 5-1 nascar odds

As arguably the driver with the most momentum heading into the Chase for the Championship, Jimmie Johnson is gunning for his third successive championship, which is unprecedented in today’s NASCAR. Following victories at California and Richmond, Johnson aims for his third consecutive win, which would mark the second season in a row in which he accomplished the three-peat. Last fall, he won four races consecutive. Johnson swept the races at New Hampshire in 2003, but he has yet to win at the 1.058-mile facility since. In his last two visits to New Hampshire, Johnson has posted finishes of sixth and ninth.

In thirteen career starts at New Hampshire, Johnson has two wins, three top five finishes, and eight top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 10.5.

4. 07-Clint Bowyer: 12-1 nascar odds

It is difficult to believe that it has already been an entire year since Clint Bowyer’s convincing first career victory at New Hampshire. He entered the 2007 Chase for the Championship as the only driver without a win, and many critics felt as if he was out of place. He led over two thirds of the 300-lap event, and solidified himself as a championship threat, just ask Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson. Bowyer is one of the favorites to repeat. His strengths have been the short flat tracks. In his last two races at New Hampshire, Bowyer has a victory and a 22nd place effort.

In five career starts at New Hampshire, Bowyer has one win, which is his only top five and top ten finish. He has an average finish of 22.2.

5. 11-Denny Hamlin: 6-1 nascar odds

Denny Hamlin has flown under the radar for much of the season, as his teammate Kyle Busch has dominated, and Tony Stewart has made headlines by declaring his intentions to race for his own team in 2009. Hamlin has one win this season, and it occurred at Martinsville, which is considered a miniature version of New Hampshire. Hamlin won the June race at New Hampshire in 2007, so he is familiar with the whereabouts of the winner’s circle. He is a solid bet this weekend. Like Bowyer and Harvick, his strengths are the short flat venues. In his last two races at New Hampshire, Hamlin has scored finishes of 15th and 8th.

In five career starts at New Hampshire, Hamlin has one win, two top five finishes, and four top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 6.8.

6. 20-Tony Stewart: 6-1 nascar odds

Other than Kevin Harvick, there is not another driver in the Sprint Cup series that is as overdue for a victory as Tony Stewart. Last weekend at Richmond, Stewart was a bump ‘n’ run away from snapping a 39 race winless streak. Instead, the winless skid is up to the big 4-0. In June, Stewart led the most laps at New Hampshire, and was clearly on his way to a win before rain clouds deterred his victory lane celebration. Based on his performance at Richmond and the June race at New Hampshire, Stewart is a safe bet. In his last two races at New Hampshire, Stewart has posted finishes of third and thirteenth.

In nineteen career starts at New Hampshire, Stewart has two wins, ten top five finishes, and eleven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.8.

7. 88-Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: 8-1 nascar odds

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. finished fourth at Richmond last weekend, which was his first top five finish since his victory at Michigan back in June. He needed a solid finish heading into the Chase for the Championship. Early in the season, Earnhardt, Jr. carried the banner for Hendrick Motorsports. It seems as if he has faded as Jimmie Johnson has picked up the slack. Earnhardt, Jr. has some favorable tracks looming on the schedule starting with New Hampshire this weekend. In his last two trips to New Hampshire, Earnhardt, Jr. has posted finishes 16th and 24th.

In seventeen career starts at New Hampshire, Earnhardt, Jr. has four top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 17.8.

8. 99-Carl Edwards: 10-1 nascar odds

The last time the Sprint Cup Series visited the 1.058-mile facility, the Roush Fenway Racing contingent had their hands full, including Carl Edwards. However, it is clear that the Roush group can pinpoint the chink in their armor. I anticipate a huge improvement over the June performance for Edwards, Greg Biffle, and Matt Kenseth. Edwards may not win, but he should enjoy a solid afternoon. In his last two races at New Hampshire, Edwards posted finishes of 12th and 17th.

In eight career starts at New Hampshire, Edwards has one top five finish, and one top ten finish. He has an average finish of 14.1.

9. 24-Jeff Gordon: 12-1 nascar odds

A year ago, Jeff Gordon was the trendy pick to win his fifth Sprint Cup championship. In 2008, not so much. Gordon should enjoy a solid ten-race stretch, but he has yet to prove that he can run with the top three drivers. Gordon had a solid performance at New Hampshire back in June. If Gordon is going to snap his winless streak, it is going to be at a track such as New Hampshire or Martinsville. In his last two races at New Hampshire, Gordon has scored finishes of second and eleventh.

In 26 career starts at New Hampshire, Jeff Gordon has three wins, twelve top five finishes, and fifteen top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.6.

10. 16-Greg Biffle: 20-1 nascar odds

Greg Biffle is one of the driver’s to keep an eye on throughout the Chase for the Championship. Like Harvick and Hamlin, he is a guy that can sneak up on the leaders. Biffle may have his hands full at New Hampshire, as the Roush Fenway Racing group struggled in June, but if he keeps his nose clean, he can post a solid finish. In his last two races at New Hampshire, Biffle has scored finishes of 13th and 21st.

In eleven career starts at New Hampshire, Biffle has three top five finishes, and four top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 19.5.

Also, keep an eye on Matt Kenseth (25-1 nascar odds), Jeff Burton (20-1 nascar odds), Kurt Busch (40-1 nascar odds), Ryan Newman (40-1 nascar odds), and Kasey Kahne (25-1 nascar odds)

Great darkhorse picks include David Reutimann (100-1 nascar odds), Patrick Carpentier (100-1 nascar odds), David Gilliland (100-1 nascar odds), Joey Logano (100-1 nascar odds), and Travis Kvapil (100-1 nascar odds)

Stay away from Chad McCumbee, Sam Hornish, Jr., Johnny Sauter, and Michael McDowell

Odds Maker’s Top Ten

1. Jimmie Johnson 5-1 nascar odds
2. Kyle Busch 6-1 nascar odds
3. Tony Stewart 6-1 nascar odds
4. Denny Hamlin 6-1 nascar odds
5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 8-1 nascar odds
6. Carl Edwards 10-1 nascar odds
7. Kevin Harvick 10-1 nascar odds
8. Clint Bowyer 12-1 nascar odds
9. Jeff Gordon 12-1 nascar odds
10. Jeff Burton and Greg Biffle 20-1 nascar odds