Win Number Four For Carl Edwards?

Phoenix International Raceway -- 04/12/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Friday Apr 11 2008 11:39am

Hendrick Motorsports has won three out of the last five races at Phoenix, so expect Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. to contend for the victory. You would be foolish to neglect Carl Edwards, who has materialized as the lucid championship favorite, based on performance alone. The Toyota gang, led by Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and the one and only Tony Stewart will mix it up for the win as well.

Do not write off the Richard Childress Racing trio, as Jeff Burton and Kevin Harvick sit atop the Sprint Cup championship standings. Dodge ringleader Ryan Newman is on the pole and is coming off a fourth place finish at Texas.

1. Carl Edwards- +500 Odds

Why stop nowΔ Carl Edwards is on fire, and even though Phoenix is not traditionally one of his best tracks, he has momentum that every other driver envies. Edwards has become the total package, and thus far, in 2008, he is carrying the banner for Jack Roush and Ford racing. His record of accomplishment at Phoenix is respectable in the Sprint Cup series compared to the 1.5-mile tracks, so there are some bettors that may wait until the series returns to Lowe’s Motor Speedway on Memorial Day weekend. However, it is becoming discernible that this may be Edwards’ year. Look for Edwards to contend for a fourth victory, and win his first race in the desert.

In seven starts at Phoenix, Edwards has scored two top five finishes, four top ten finishes, and has an average finish of 16.0. In 2007, Edwards finished 42nd and 11th at Phoenix.

2. Tony Stewart- +800 Odds

Tony Stewart heads to the Phoenix International Raceway in the top five in the Sprint Cup championship standings. Considering he is a late bloomer, that is bad news for the rest of the series if Stewart catches fire in June and July. Stewart has always performed well at Phoenix and tracks similar to it. He is the last of the Joe Gibbs Racing entourage not to win a race in 2008, so supplemental motivation is present. Winning at Phoenix may mean that you have to outmuscle Stewart.

In twelve starts at Phoenix, Stewart has one victory, which occurred in his rookie year of 1999. Moreover, he has six top five finishes, eight top ten finishes, and has an impressive average finish of 9.4. In 2007, Stewart posted finishes of 2nd and 4th at Phoenix.

3. Kyle Busch- +610 Odds

Other than his hiccup at Martinsville two weeks ago, Kyle Busch has been in contention to win just about everything he has raced in 2008, whether it is the Craftsman Truck Series, Nationwide Series, or the Sprint Cup series. The race at Phoenix is no exception. Busch will muscle his Toyota Camry to the front and contend for yet another victory. Busch has a victory at Phoenix and at New Hampshire, which is the sister track of Phoenix, though the layout is somewhat distinct. Honestly, Busch has proven that he can contend on any brand of venue.

In six career starts at Phoenix, Kyle Busch has a victory, and like Stewart, the victory occurred in his rookie year in 2005. Additionally, he has four top ten finishes, and an average finish of 16.3. In 2007, Busch posted finishes of 7th and 8th at Phoenix.

4. Denny Hamlin- +840 Odds

With the exception of Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin may carry the most momentum to Phoenix. He is coming off a win at Martinsville, and a fifth place finish at Texas, two very different styles of racing. A year ago, Hamlin had the car to beat, but a pit road speeding penalty sent him to the back of the pack, and he was unable to recover. As mentioned in a previous article, Hamlin flourishes at the short and flat tracks such as Phoenix. He is a solid threat to win this weekend.

Hamlin won his first pole award at Phoenix in November of 2005.

In five career starts at Phoenix, Hamlin has two top five finishes and two top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 13.8. In 2007, he finished 3rd and 16th at Phoenix.

5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.- +1000 Odds

In 2003 and 2004, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. was the top dog at Phoenix. He was almost a sure bet to win. Since 2005, he has yet to display that same ascendancy, but he has not fallen apart at the 1-mile venue either. Earnhardt, Jr. has enjoyed a flattering start to the 2008 season, despite his sub par results at Texas. With his track history, as well as Hendrick Motorsports track history at Phoenix, Eanhardt, Jr. is a clever pick for this weekend’s race. Moreover, consider the fact that he is well overdue for a trip to victory lane in the Sprint Cup series.

In eleven starts at Phoenix, Earnhardt, Jr. owns two victories, four top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 19.0. In 2007, he posted finishes of 19th and 43rd while driving for DEI.

6. Jeff Gordon- +560 Odds

It is hard to believe that is has been a year since Jeff Gordon tied Dale Earnhardt for sixth on NASCAR’s all-time win list by winning his 76th race. Fans may recall that Gordon saluted the seven-time champion by carrying a vast number 3 flag during his victory lap. The win was the first of six for Gordon in 2007, and it was the first of his career at the Phoenix International Raceway. Gordon’s performance has waned since 2007, as the consistency is lacking, but he is one of the few drivers that you never omit, regardless of how bad he is struggling.

Even while Gordon was winless in the desert, he always performed well. In eighteen career starts at Phoenix, Gordon has one victory, eight top five finishes, and fifteen top ten finishes. He boasts a career finishing average of 8.3. In 2007, Gordon posted finishes of 1st and 10th at Phoenix.

7. Jimmie Johnson- +500 Odds

Jimmie Johnson’s win at Phoenix last November may have sealed the deal to his second consecutive Sprint Cup championship. It was also his first career victory at the 1-mile track. Prior to the race at Martinsville, cynics, including myself, were beginning to discount Johnson. However, the 48 team is resilient, and they have toiled and labored while trying to detect the balance they need in the new car. Well folks, it appears that they have discovered something. Johnson is riding a wave of momentum with two consecutive top five finishes, and he is a patent favorite to win the weekend at Phoenix.

In nine career starts at Phoenix, Johnson has posted one victory, four top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He boasts a career finishing average of 6.6, which is best among the projected top ten. In 2007, Johnson posted finishes of 4th and 1st in cactus-land.

8. Kevin Harvick- +1200 Odds

Kevin Harvick swept both races at Phoenix in 2006, but that was a different era with the archaic template. Harvick has always favored the short and flat tracks, so he should be a factor on Saturday. Richard Childress Racing is on a roll as well, so look out for all three team drivers.

In ten career starts at Phoenix, Harvick has two wins, three top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 13.2. In 2007, he posted finishes of 10th and 6th.

9. Ryan Newman- +1300 Odds

The 25-point penalty notwithstanding, Ryan Newman is coming off a fourth place finish at Texas, and has already clinched the Coors Light Pole Award for the Subway Fresh 500.

In eleven career starts at Phoenix, Newman has three top five finishes and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 20.3. In 2007, Newman posted finishes of 38th and 5th.

10. Jeff Burton- +2400 Odds

The NASCAR Sprint Cup championship leader heads to Phoenix as a darkhorseΔ According to the nascar odds makers, Jeff Burton is a long shot, but he is a smart pick.

In seventeen career starts at Phoenix, Burton has two wins, five top five finishes, and nine top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.4. In 2007, Burton finished 13th and 9th at Phoenix.

Also, keep an eye on- Clint Bowyer, Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, Martin Truex, Jr., and Kurt Busch

Great darkhorse picks include- Jamie McMurray, David Gilliland, Paul Menard, and Juan Pablo Montoya

Stay Away From- Michael Waltrip, J.J. Yeley, and Dario Franchitti

Top Ten Odds

1. Carl Edwards- +500 Odds

2. Jimmie Johnson- +500 Odds

3. Jeff Gordon- +560 Odds

4. Kyle Busch- +610 Odds

5. Tony Stewart- +800 Odds

6. Denny Hamlin- +840 Odds

7. Matt Kenseth- +850 Odds

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.- +1000 Odds

9. Martin Truex, Jr.- +1000 Odds

10. Kevin Harvick- +1200 Odds