Big Night Ahead For Bubble Drivers

Bristol Motor Speedway -- 08/23/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Friday Aug 22 2008 1:38pm

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Thunder Valley in Bristol this weekend in what many deem the most exciting race of the year with the most coveted ticket. It is a huge week for the driver vying for a spot in the Chase for the Championship. While Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards are the nascar odds-on favorites, it could come down to a duel between out ‘bubble drivers’.

1. 29-Kevin Harvick: 10-1 nascar odds

Kevin Harvick and the 29 team are not in desperation mode, but a victory would really distance them from the Chase for the Championship cutoff. Bristol is one of Harvick’s best tracks since joining the Sprint Cup Series in 2001. He won the spring race in 2005, and unless he encounters some kind of misfortune, he typically runs in or near the top five. Look for Harvick to perhaps break his agonizing winless skid. In his last two starts at Bristol, Harvick has posted finishes of sixteenth and second.

In fifteen career starts at Bristol, Harvick has one victory, eight top ten finishes, and ten top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 9.9. He has two career short track wins, and an average finish of 13.4.

2. 20-Tony Stewart: 8-1 nascar odds

In March, Tony Stewart led of 267 of 506 laps paced around the 0.533-mile bullring. While running in the second position, Stewart spun out following contact from Kevin Harvick with just a coupe of laps remaining. Racing at Bristol is exactly what Tony Stewart is all about. It is hardcore racing at its finest. Like Harvick, Stewart is not in desperation or panic mode, in fact, he is one top five finish away from exiting the bubble. Expect him to contend for another victory at Bristol, and perhaps score his first win since August of 2007. In his last two trips to Bristol, Stewart has scored finishes of fourth and fourteenth.

In nineteen career starts at Bristol, Stewart has one victory, five top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 16.8. He has six career short track victories, and an average finish of 13.2.

3. 11-Denny Hamlin: 8-1 nascar odds

Denny Hamlin could easily have two wins at Bristol by now. In each of the last two spring races, Hamlin was leading late in the race when he encountered fuel pump issues. This track certainly owes Hamlin one, and it could be this weekend. Hamlin needs a strong finish to distance him from the cutoff, so he may take the more conservative approach, which may only reward him with a top five or top ten. He has finished 43rd and sixth in his last two races at Bristol.

In five career starts at Bristol, Hamlin has two top ten finishes, and an average finish of 16.6. He has one career short track win, and an average finish of 11.9.

4. 16-Greg Biffle: 15-1 nascar odds

Greg Biffle is in a similar situation as Tony Stewart. A win or perhaps even a top five finish would really solidify his position in the Chase for the Championship. Most of Biffle’s success has occurred on the intermediate speedways; however, many forget how strong Biffle is on the short tracks, which are his roots. He is one of many talented drivers that have yet to break into the winner’s circle in 2008. Do not be surprised if Biffle wins Saturday night in Thunder Valley. In his last two races at Bristol, Biffle has posted finishes of tenth and fourth.

In eleven career starts at Bristol, Biffle has four top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 9.7. He has a career average finish of 16.4 on short tracks.

5. 18-Kyle Busch: 5-1 nascar odds

The reason why drivers such as Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick, and Greg Biffle have not won a race this year is that Kyle Busch is hogging victory lane. Busch has won just about everything else in 2008, so why not Bristol. In March, Busch did not see the results or performance that he desired; however, this team is better than they were five months ago. He won the Craftsman Truck Series race on Wednesday night. In his last two Sprint Cup races at Bristol, Busch has finishes of ninth and seventeenth.

In seven career starts at Bristol, Kyle Busch has one win, two top five finishes, and four top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 14.0. He has one career win on short tracks, and an average finish of 12.1.

6. 31-Jeff Burton: 18-1 nascar odds

Not since Kurt Busch in 2003 has a driver swept both races at Bristol. Jeff Burton has that opportunity once the green flag waves on Saturday night. Burton benefited from Denny Hamlin and Tony Stewart’s rotten luck back in March, and he led a 1-2-3 finish for the Richard Childress Racing contingent. Burton should be a factor again on Saturday night, but I am not so sure he can pull off the season sweep. In his last two visits to Bristol, Burton has posted finishes of twelfth and first.

In 29 starts at Bristol, Burton has one win, eight top five finishes, and twelve top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 17.7. He has three career short track wins, and an average finish of 16.3.

7. 24-Jeff Gordon: 12-1 nascar odds

Following two consecutive finishes of 29th or worse, Jeff Gordon has gone from comfortably placed in the Chase for the Championship to the bubble. Historically, Bristol is one of Jeff Gordon’s playgrounds, but the last two times the Sprint Cup Series visited Bristol, the performance was well below expectations. The last time Gordon had winless streak run this long was back in 2002, and he broke the winless streak at Bristol. Perhaps he can repeat that performance six years later. It would sure lift this team out of the bubble. In his last two trips to Bristol, Gordon has finishes of 19th and 11th.

In 31 career starts at Bristol, Jeff Gordon has five wins, twelve top five finishes, and eighteen top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.7. He has fifteen career short track wins, and an average finish of 11.4.

8. 99-Carl Edwards: 9-2 nascar odds

Carl Edwards continued his stellar 2008 campaign last weekend at Michigan by winning his fifth race of the season, which is a career single-season high. He is also the defending winner of this event. Expect Edwards to be among the frontrunners all weekend at Bristol. In his last two races at Bristol, Edwards has recorded finishes of first and sixteenth.

In eight career starts at Bristol, Edwards has one victory, two top five finishes, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 15.4. He has one career short track win, and an average finish of 17.8.

9. 07-Clint Bowyer: 30-1 nascar odds

This could be a make or break race for Clint Bowyer’s 2008 season. He is currently tied for thirteenth in the Sprint Cup standings, 26 points behind the cutoff. The good news is that Bristol is one of his better tracks, as he has posted three consecutive top ten finishes at the 0.533-mile facility. Bowyer will likely take the conservative approach, and could easily score a much-needed top ten finish. In his last two races at Bristol, Bowyer has two third place finishes.

In five career starts at Bristol, Bowyer has two top five finishes, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 16.2. He has one career short track win, and an average finish of 13.3.

10. 17-Matt Kenseth: 10-1 nascar odds

The 2005 and 2006 winner of this event could use a third victory at Bristol. Kenseth is stuck on the bubble, and has been for the majority of the summer. However, Kenseth is performing better than the drivers surrounding him, with the exception of Biffle and Stewart. Look for Kenseth to be among the frontrunners on Saturday evening. In his last two races at Bristol, Kenseth has posted finishes of 39th and tenth.

In seventeen career starts at Bristol, Kenseth has two wins, seven top five finishes, and ten top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.4. He has three career short track wins, and an average finish of 14.8.

Also, keep an eye on Jimmie Johnson (20-1 nascar odds), Kurt Busch (15-1 nascar odds), Kasey Kahne (10-1 nascar odds), Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (8-1 nascar odds), and Ryan Newman (40-1 nascar odds)

Great darkhorse picks include David Gilliland (100-1 nascar odds), Aric Almirola , Bobby Labonte (100-1 nascar odds), Elliott Sadler (60-1 nascar odds), and Jamie McMurray (100-1 nascar odds)

Stay away from Kyle Petty, Patrick Carpentier, Sam Hornish, Jr., Reed Sorenson, and Johnny Sauter

Odds Maker’s Top Ten

1. Carl Edwards 9-2 nascar odds
2. Kyle Busch 5-1 nascar odds
3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 8-1 nascar odds
4. Tony Stewart 8-1 nascar odds
5. Denny Hamlin 8-1 nascar odds
6. Kevin Harvick 10-1 nascar odds
7. Matt Kenseth 10-1 nascar odds
8. Kasey Kahne 10-1 nascar odds
9. Jeff Gordon 12-1 nascar odds
10. Greg Biffle and Kurt Busch 15-1 nascar odds