Roush vs. Gibbs In The Texas Showdown

Texas Motor Speedway -- 04/06/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Thursday Apr 3 2008 2:12pm

The 2008 NASCAR Sprint Cup season has featured two races at tracks that are 1.5-miles in length. At Las Vegas, Roush Fenway Racing driver Carl Edwards dominated and won while Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth enjoyed solid showings. Meanwhile, Joe Gibbs Racing driver Kyle Busch won the pole for that race and ran among the top five for most of the event. Tony Stewart was running sixth when he abruptly cut a tire.

At Atlanta, Kyle Busch dominated and Stewart finished second. However, Edwards was leading when his engine expired late in the race. Biffle was catching Busch before his car faded in the closing laps.

You see the pattern hereΔ Roush Fenway Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing appear to be the cream of the crop on the intermediate style racetracks. Nevertheless, do not write off Richard Childress Racing and Hendrick Motorsports.

Projected Top Ten

1. Greg Biffle- +1147 Odds

Greg Biffle is leading the way as the comeback driver of the year in 2008. After a mediocre 2007 campaign, one in which he only scored five top five finishes, including his fuel mileage victory at Kansas, Biffle appears to have returned to his 2005 form. In 2005, Biffle won this particular race at the Texas Motor Speedway in dominating fashion. It would be his second of six victories in 2005. Although he does not seem to dominate races as he did then, he is more consistent, and makes his move towards the end of the race. Biffle is stout on the intermediate tracks, so he should emerge as a strong favorite to win this weekend’s race.

Biffle’s stats at Texas are deceiving. He has competed in eight races at Texas since his career began, and has scored one victory, one top five finish, and two top ten finishes. His average finish is 24.5.

2. Kyle Busch- +826 Odds

Kyle Busch is coming off a disaster of a day at Martinsville last Sunday. Not only did he encounter mechanical woes, but he suffered through handling issues as well. Even though Busch won at Atlanta last month, Texas is a completely different track despite the fact that the two tracks appear identical to the casual fan. Throughout his career, Busch excels on the tracks that produce the most speed, such as Texas and Atlanta. Expect Busch to contend for his second victory of the season. In order for him to win, he must outrun the Roush Fenway Racing drivers, Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle.

In six career starts at Texas, Kyle Busch has posted two top five finishes, and two top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 20.2 at the 1.5-mile quad-oval.

3. Carl Edwards- +429 Odds

According to the NASCAR nascar odds, Carl Edwards is the favorite to wear the traditional cowboy hat in the Texas Motor Speedway victory lane celebration. Edwards was the class of the field at California and Las Vegas, and was primed and ready to give Kyle Busch all he could handle at Atlanta. There is no reason to believe that Edwards will not contend for the Samsung 500 triumph. He currently sits 14th in the Sprint Cup championship standings, so expect him to use that as added motivation. Edwards won at Texas in November of 2005.

In six career starts at Texas, Edwards has one victory, which is his only top ten finish at the track. He has an average finish of 18.2.

4. Tony Stewart- +933 Odds

Tony Stewart enjoyed a controversy-free weekend at Martinsville. Maybe it is the haircut. Goodyear will not bring the same tire to Texas that they brought to Atlanta, which should ease the minds of Tony Stewart and others. Stewart and his two Joe Gibbs Racing teammates typically shine on the fast tracks, so expect Stewart to mix it up at the front of the pack. His only win at Texas occurred in 2006, the year he missed the Chase for the Championship.

In twelve starts at Texas, Stewart has one victory, three top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. His average finish at Texas is 13.5.

5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.- +826 Odds

Could this be the week that Dale Earnhardt, Jr. snaps his 68-race winless streakΔ It would be fitting to say the least. Earnhardt, Jr. scored his first Cup victory at Texas in 2000, which was only his 12th career start by the way, so how special would it be for him to win his first race with Hendrick Motorsports at the very same trackΔ Earnhardt, Jr. has spent most of his time running among the top five, which is a far cry from a year ago when he was a disgruntled DEI employee. His confidence is at an all-time high, and his first victory will likely be Hendrick’s first victory of 2008.

In eleven career starts at Texas, Earnhardt, Jr. has one victory, three top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.9.

6. Jeff Gordon- +826 Odds

The Texas Motor Speedway is one of only two tracks that Jeff Gordon has not conquered. The other is Homestead. His best finish was second-place back in 2002. Texas has not been one of Gordon’s best tracks, which could provide the four-time champion added motivation. In order for Gordon to win this weekend, he must improve from his performance at Atlanta. He was fast, but not fast enough to compete with Edwards, Kyle Busch, and even his teammate Earnhardt, Jr. Gordon is one of eleven drivers that competed in the inaugural race at Texas in 1997 that will attempt to qualify for the 2008 event.

In fourteen career starts at Texas, Gordon has posted five top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 15.2.

7. Kevin Harvick- +1922 Odds

Kevin Harvick currently sits second in the Sprint Cup championship standings in what has been a relatively quiet season for the two-time Nationwide Series champion. Harvick has seen mixed results at Texas and all the intermediate tracks to be honest. Uniformity has been the key for Harvick as they finished in the top ten at California, Las Vegas, and Atlanta. Expect much of the same at Texas.

In ten career starts at Texas, Harvick has two top five finishes, four top ten finishes, and has an average finish of 13.6. Note that he has four wins in the Nationwide Series at this track.

8. Matt Kenseth- +1039 Odds

Matt Kenseth is coming off an atrocious weekend at Martinsville. He could not ask for a better place for this team to regroup. Kenseth won this race back in 2002.

In eleven career starts at Texas, Kenseth has one victory, five top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 10.3.

9. Jeff Burton- +1922 Odds

The NASCAR Sprint Cup championship leader heads to Texas as the defending winner of the race. Burton has been solid week in and week out and there is no reason to expect anything different this weekend. He is the only driver to win at Texas more than once.

In fourteen career starts at Texas, Burton has two wins, including the inaugural event in 1997, three top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 16.9.

10. Jimmie Johnson- +1147 Odds

I was hesitant in placing Jimmie Johnson in the top ten based on his results at Las Vegas and Atlanta. However, Chad Knaus and 48 team have worked feverishly trying to enhance their performance. They spent some time testing at Kentucky during the off-week. Johnson redeemed himself at Martinsville last weekend.

In nine career starts at Texas, Johnson has one victory, four top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 9.2, which is best of any driver listed in the top ten.

Also, keep an eye on- Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne, Clint Bowyer, Kurt Busch, and Denny Hamlin

Great Darkhorse picks include- Mark Martin, David Ragan, Bobby Labonte, Juan Pablo Montoya, and Casey Mears

Stay Away From- Sam Hornish, Jr., Dario Franchitti, Michael Waltrip, Robby Gordon, and Patrick Carpentier

Odds makers Top Ten

1. Carl Edwards- +426 Odds
2. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.- +826 Odds
3. Kyle Busch- +826 Odds
4. Jeff Gordon- +826 Odds
5. Tony Stewart- +933 Odds
6. Matt Kenseth- +1039 Odds
7. Greg Biffle- +1147 Odds
8. Jimmie Johnson- +1147 Odds
9. Kasey Kahne- +1585 Odds
10. +1922 Odds (Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer, and Denny Hamlin)