Roush Versus Gibbs, Again?

Pocono Raceway -- 06/08/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Friday Jun 6 2008 1:40pm

1. 99-Carl Edwards: +620 Odds

Carl Edwards could end the weekend with two victories. In the Nationwide Series event, he will compete in Nashville where he won both races in 2007. On the Sprint Cup side, he visits Pocono where he won in 2005, his first full season the Cup series. Edwards is coming off a second place effort at Dover, and you can tell, losing to Kyle Busch really grates on his nerves. Look for Edwards to emerge as the favorite to win his fourth race of the season, which would tie him with Kyle Busch for the series lead. In this race a year ago, Edwards started 32nd and finished 14th in the rain delayed event.

In six career starts at Pocono, Edwards has one victory, two top five finishes, and two top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 17.3.

2. 18-Kyle Busch: +360 Odds

Kyle Busch is competing in three different races in three different series in three different states. Even if he does not win a single race this weekend, his desire and passion for racing is impressive. However, Busch will likely win at least one of the three races this weekend. He is coming off a victory at Dover last weekend, so momentum is on his side. Busch has yet to win at Pocono, but Joe Gibbs Racing cars usually perform well at the 2.5-mile triangular track. Both Denny Hamlin and Tony Stewart have wins at Pocono. Last year, while driving for Hendrick Motorsports, Busch finished eighth after starting the race in fourth.

In six career starts at Pocono, Kyle Busch has yet to win, but he has posted one top five finish, and two top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 16.2.

3. 11-Denny Hamlin: +500 Odds

The Nationwide Series, nor the Craftsman Truck Series compete on the Pocono Raceway, so when Denny Hamlin swept the two races, as a rookie in 2006, it was a little surprising. Hamlin joined Jeremy Mayfield by winning his first Cup race at Pocono. Hamlin’s track record at Pocono is exceptional to say the least. For some reason, he has and his team developed a comfort zone at the 2.5-mile venue. Nevertheless, Hamlin’s previous success at Pocono may be insignificant. For the first time, the Sprint Cup Series will race new car at Pocono. Still, Hamlin is a safe bet. After qualifying second, Hamlin finished sixth in this race last year.

In four career starts at Pocono, Hamlin has two wins, three top five finishes, and four top ten finishes. He boasts an amazing finishing average of 2.8.

4. 16-Greg Biffle: +1200 Odds

While Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch battle for stock car supremacy, Greg Biffle continues to inch ever so close. Following three consecutive top five finishes, Biffle is primed and ready for the 500-mile marathon at Pocono. Other than possibly Dale Earnhardt, Jr., no other driver seems to be ready for that first win of 2008 as Greg Biffle. Barring any fluke mechanical failures, Biffle should continue his upsurge in the championship standings. In this race a year ago, Biffle qualified 41st and finished 30th.

In ten career starts at Pocono, Biffle has scored one top five finish, and two top ten finishes. He has a career average finish of 19.2.

5. 48-Jimmie Johnson: +710 Odds

In 2004, Jimmie Johnson swept the season series at Pocono, and looks to add to his impressive resume at the 2.5-mile triangle. Hendrick Motorsports has always brought fast car to Pocono, dating back to the mid-1980’s with Tim Richmond and Geoffrey Bodine. Johnson, along with his Hendrick Motorsports teammates, should be a force this weekend. Johnson is hoping to build on his top ten finish at Dover last weekend. In this race a year ago, Johnson finished 42nd after qualifying seventh.

In twelve career starts at Pocono, Johnson has two wins, four top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. His average finish is 10.7.

6. 20-Tony Stewart: +800 Odds

Will the black cloud finally disappear for Tony StewartΔ The 2003 winner of this race hopes to capitalize at one of his best tracks. The Joe Gibbs Racing power plant has produced tons of horsepower in 2008, and no other track, with the exception of Indianapolis, favors horsepower quite like Pocono. This could be the weekend in which Tony Stewart and his team finally turn the corner. In this race a year ago, Stewart finished fifth after qualifying sixth.

In eighteen career starts at Pocono, Stewart has one victory, five top five finishes, and thirteen top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.4.

7. 88-Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: +780 Odds

Despite the doughnut in the win column, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is one of the nascar odds-on favorites to win each week, which says a lot about his performance. I’m not sure if Pocono is a track where Earnhardt, Jr. can break his winless streak. Perhaps Michigan, New Hampshire, and Daytona are more likely tracks that favor Earnhardt, Jr. However, no one expected Ryan Newman to break his winless skid at Daytona. Look for Earnhardt, Jr. to be among the frontrunners this weekend. In last year’s race, Earnhardt, Jr. finished twelfth after qualifying thirteenth.

In sixteen career starts at Pocono, Earnhardt, Jr. has no wins, four top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 17.3.

8. 17-Matt Kenseth: +1200 Odds

Finally, the 2003 champion is waking up from his early season slumber. Matt Kenseth is usually one of NASCAR’s most consistent driver, but he could not buy a break early in the season. Things are looking up for Kenseth and the 17 team heading into Pocono as they have scored three consecutive top ten finishes. Pocono is not one of Kenseth’s best tracks historically; however, he is one of the few drivers that can win just about anywhere. Kenseth finished ninth after qualifying 24th in last year’s Pocono 500.

In sixteen career starts at Pocono, Kenseth has three top five finishes, seven top five finishes, and a career finishing average of 14.8.

9. 24-Jeff Gordon: +1000 Odds

Jeff Gordon’s season is beginning to pick up after consecutive top five finishes at Charlotte and Dover. Still, Gordon’s performance on high speed ovals has been unimpressive ever since the Texas debacle. He has not sounded very optimistic since the Sprint Cup Series tested at Pocono two weeks ago. This could be a long weekend for the 24 group. Gordon is the defending race winner of this event.

In thirty career starts at Pocono, Gordon has four wins, fifteen top five finishes, and 21 top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 10.2.

10. 31-Jeff Burton: +2100 Odds

Jeff Burton is racing in obscurity despite his second place showing in the Sprint Cup standings. It is as if no one has noticed that Burton has completed every lap but one in 2008. A win at Pocono would force the media and fans to show Burton and his team some love. This is a championship-caliber driver and team, they just do not go out and dominate races like Kyle Busch and Edwards. Burton finished thirteenth in last year’s Pocono 500 after starting tenth.

In twenty-eight career starts at Pocono, Burton has six top five finishes, thirteen top ten finishes, and an average finish of 16.8.

Also, keep an eye on: Kurt Busch (+1500 Odds), Clint Bowyer (+2100 Odds), Martin Truex, Jr. (+1700 Odds), Ryan Newman (+2500 Odds), and Kasey Kahne (+1700 Odds)

Great darkhorse picks include: Dave Blaney (100-1), David Ragan (+3200), Mark Martin (+2100), Brian Vickers (60-1), and Travis Kvapil (100-1)

Stay Away from: Michael Waltrip, Terry Labonte, Dario Franchitti, Scott Riggs, and Reed Sorenson

Odds Maker’s Top Ten

1. Kyle Busch +360 Odds
2. Denny Hamlin +500 Odds
3. Carl Edwards +620 Odds
4. Jimmie Johnson +710 Odds
5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. +780 Odds
6. Tony Stewart +800 Odds
7. Jeff Gordon +1000 Odds
8. Greg Biffle +1200 Odds
9. Matt Kenseth +1200 Odds
10. Kurt Busch +1500 Odds