Greg Biffle Races His Way Back Into Title Fight

Atlanta Motor Speedway -- 10/26/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Thursday Oct 23 2008 1:18pm

Following Jimmie Johnson’s persisting ascendancy at Martinsville last weekend, the Sprint Cup Series heads to NASCAR’s fastest track, the Atlanta Motor Speedway. Johnson continued to pad his lead in the championship nascar standings, as he now owns a commanding 149-point lead over Greg Biffle.

In order for Biffle, Jeff Burton, or Carl Edwards to even remotely catch Johnson, they have to win races. Johnson and the 48 team seldom make errors, so the best way to gain points is to score the maximum per race. Biffle and Edwards are stout on all four remaining tracks, so they still have reason for optimism.

1. 16-Greg Biffle: 7-1 nascar odds

It is plausible to believe that Greg Biffle can win the race at Atlanta by leading the most laps. That would mean 195 points to his credit. If Jimmie Johnson slips up just a little, for instance, he cuts a tire and has to pit under green late in the race and finishes in, say, the 16th position. He would score 120 points, and that is if he leads a lap. That would be a 75-point swing, putting Biffle within 74 points of Johnson with three races remaining, certainly within striking distance. Biffle won at New Hampshire and Dover, and contended for wins at Kansas and Charlotte, so he and the 16 team are counting on another stellar race. He finished fourth at Atlanta in March. In 2007, he posted finishes of 41st and 22nd.

In eleven career starts at Atlanta, Biffle has scored three top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 14.8. He has thirteen career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 16.0.

2. 18-Kyle Busch: 5-1 nascar odds

The forgotten man, Kyle Busch, won this race back in March, and he won the race at Chicagoland, which is also a 1.5-mile intermediate speedway. Busch is still searching for his first win since Watkins Glen two months ago, and he has nothing to lose since the Sprint Cup championship is far out of reach. Expect Busch to contend for his ninth win of the season at Atlanta this weekend. In 2007, Busch scored finishes of 32nd and 20th at the 1.54-mile venue.

In eight career starts at Atlanta, Kyle Busch has one win, one top five finish, and one top ten finish. He has an average finish of 19.9. He has even career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 17.4.

3. 99-Carl Edwards: 5-1 nascar odds

Carl Edwards has arguably been the top dog at the intermediate speedways in 2008 with victories at California, Las Vegas, Texas, and Michigan. Since his entrance into the Sprint Cup level, Atlanta has been one of his finest tracks, as he won both races in 2005. Edwards gave away an abundance of points at Talladega and Charlotte, so he must forget about points nascar racing, and focus solely on winning. Actually, Edwards is one driver that probably does not know the meaning of points nascar racing, so he just needs to be himself. He was leading the race at Atlanta in the spring before an engine failure relegated him to a 42nd place finish. In 2007, Edwards posted finishes of seventh and second.

In eight career starts at Atlanta, Edwards has two wins, four top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.9. He has eleven career wins at intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 11.7.

4. 24-Jeff Gordon: 12-1 nascar odds

Judging by his performances at Kansas and Charlotte, the intermediate program for the 24 team has significantly enhanced. Jeff Gordon finished fourth at Kansas and eighth at Charlotte, so a strong performance at Atlanta almost seems inevitable. Gordon is still winless in 2008, and witnessing a winless season for Gordon in this lifetime almost seemed unimaginable prior to this season. Gordon may find himself in victory lane this weekend at Atlanta. He finished fifth at Atlanta in April. In 2007, Gordon scored finishes of 12th and seventh at the 1.54-mile facility.

Jeff Gordon made his Sprint Cup debut at Atlanta in 1992. In 32 career starts at Atlanta, Gordon has four wins, thirteen top five finishes, and 20 top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.8. He has forty career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 11.9.

5. 48-Jimmie Johnson: 5-1 nascar odds

Jimmie Johnson’s 149-point lead may seem insurmountable at the moment, but the title fight is not over until Greg Biffle, Jeff Burton, and Carl Edwards are mathematically eliminated. All drivers in the Chase for the Championship, with the exception of Johnson, have encountered some type of misfortune or difficulty beyond their control. When and if Johnson slips, there are three hungry drivers waiting to pounce. Johnson struggled at Atlanta back in April, as he finished in the 13th position. However, that seems like a lifetime ago. In 2007, Johnson won both races held at Atlanta.

In fourteen career starts at Atlanta, Johnson has three wins, eight top five finishes, and nine top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 9.6. He has 29 career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 10.0.

6. 31-Jeff Burton: 20-1 nascar odds

Jeff Burton won at Charlotte two weeks, which bodes well for his chances this weekend at Atlanta. This track is the sister track to Lowe’s Motor Speedway in Charlotte, and if you perform well at Charlotte, chances are you will do the same at Atlanta. Since Dale Earnhardt, Jr.’s chances at the title are slim to none, Burton has emerged as the fan favorite to win it all. Nevertheless, he has a challenging undertaking ahead as he trails Jimmie Johnson by 152 points. Burton finished tenth at Atlanta back in March. In 2007, he recorded finishes of tenth and fourth.

In 28 career starts at Atlanta, Jeff Burton has yet to win, but he has scored seven top five finishes, and thirteen top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 16.5. He has 16 career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 14.7.

7. 83-Brian Vickers: 20-1 nascar odds

Look for Brian Vickers to surface as the top non-Chaser at Atlanta. For some reason, Vickers and his Red Bull Racing team are super fast on the intermediate tracks. Furthermore, Vickers and his team are reeling from a 150-point penalty, and the indefinite suspension of crew chief Kevin Hamlin, as well as the car chief. NASCAR penalized the 83 team, as the car’s sheet metal did not meet NASCAR’s required specifications. Vickers and company have all the motivation in the world, and a lot to prove. Vickers finished ninth at Atlanta in the spring. In 2007, he posted finishes of tenth and 42nd.

In ten career starts at Atlanta, Vickers has four top ten finishes, and an average finish of 19.5. He has a career average finish of 20.3 on intermediate speedways. Keep in mind, Vickers led 64 laps at Charlotte two weeks ago.

8. 88-Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: 12-1 nascar odds

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. was elated with his second place finish at Martinsville last weekend, and hopes Uncle Mo, or momentum, follows him to Atlanta. Earnhardt, Jr. won the pole at Atlanta back in the spring, and finished in the third position. In 2007, Earnhardt, Jr. posted finishes of 14th and 25th while driving for DEI.

In eighteen career starts at Atlanta, Earnhardt, Jr. has one win, which occurred in the spring of 2004, eight top five finishes, and ten top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.7. He has seven career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 16.7.

9. 29-Kevin Harvick: 25-1 nascar odds

Kevin Harvick’s first career victory was at Atlanta in his rookie season in 2001. He hopes to crack the win column for the first time in 2008 this weekend. His performance was off at Charlotte, so the 29 team has some digging to do. He finished seventh at Atlanta back in March.

In fifteen career starts at Atlanta, Harvick has one win, two top five finishes, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 23.3. He has seven career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 16.0.

10. 20-Tony Stewart: 8-1 nascar odds

Tony Stewart finished second at Atlanta back in March. However, his most notable moment during that weekend was his brutal denigration towards Goodyear. For Goodyear’s sake, I hope they bring a more tolerable tire package. In 2007, Stewart scored finishes of second and 30th.

In nineteen career starts at Atlanta, Stewart has two wins, eight top five finishes, and twelve top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.0. He has 18 career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 12.6.

Also, keep an eye on Matt Kenseth (12-1 nascar odds), Kasey Kahne (30-1 nascar odds), Clint Bowyer (30-1 nascar odds), Denny Hamlin (20-1 nascar odds), and Mark Martin (30-1 nascar odds)

Great darkhorse picks include David Ragan (30-1 nascar odds), Jamie McMurray (50-1 nascar odds), David Reutimann (100-1 nascar odds), Casey Mears (100-1 nascar odds), and Juan Pablo Montoya (100-1 nascar odds)

Stay away from Marcos Ambrose, Bryan Clauson, and Tony Raines

Odds Maker’s Top Ten

1. Jimmie Johnson 5-1 nascar odds
2. Carl Edwards 5-1 nascar odds
3. Kyle Busch 5-1 nascar odds
4. Greg Biffle 7-1 nascar odds
5. Tony Stewart 8-1 nascar odds
6. Jeff Gordon 12-1 nascar odds
7. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 12-1 nascar odds
8. Matt Kenseth 12-1 nascar odds
9. Jeff Burton 20-1 nascar odds
10. Denny Hamlin and Brian Vickers 20-1 nascar odds