Chase For The Championship Picture

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Wednesday Jun 11 2008 1:31pm

After fourteen races into the 2008 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series, the Chase for the Championship picture is still a little blurry. Only 115 points separate ninth place driver Kasey Kahne and fourteenth place driver Ryan Newman. In the forthcoming races leading up to the Chase for the Championship, the distance between the 7th and 8th place drivers and the 14th and 15th place drivers will swell, but do not count on the current crop of twelve drivers making up the Chase for the Championship field.

1. Kyle Busch: 3-1 Sprint Cup Championship Odds

IN (477 points above of the cutoff). It would take a season-ending injury, an early retirement, or a total collapse for Kyle Busch to miss the Chase for the championship. They are the best team in NASCAR at the moment.

2. Jeff Burton: 15-1 Sprint Cup Championship Odds

ALMOST LOCKED IN (456 points above the cutoff). Burton is incredibly consistent and does not make too many mistakes. Barring a barrage of mechanical failures, Burton should easily qualify for the Chase for the Championship.

3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: 5-1 Sprint Cup Championship Odds

ALMOST LOCKED IN (332 points above the cutoff). Not only is Earnhardt, Jr. going to qualify for the Chase for the Championship, but also he is going to be a player in the championship race.

4. Carl Edwards: 5-1 Sprint Cup Championship Odds

SAFE (249 points above the cutoff). Edwards and the 99 team overcame a 100-point penalty at Las Vegas, which dropped them back to 17th in the standings back in March. They are performing at a high level. However, three bad finishes may put them in danger.

5. Denny Hamlin: 8-1 Sprint Cup Championhsip Odds

SAFE (193 points above the cutoff). Ever since Hamlin’s Sprint Cup career began, he has displayed an abundance of consistency. Like Edwards, a couple of bad finishes will put him in danger.

6. Jimmie Johnson: 7-1 Sprint Cup Championship Odds

SAFE (192 points above the cutoff). Initially, I thought this could be the year that Johnson and the 48 team stumble and miss the Chase for the Championship. However, Johnson has become a model of consistency. Barring a handful of setbacks, Johnson should qualify for the Chase for the Championship for a fifth time.

7. Greg Biffle: 10-1 Sprint Cup Championship Odds

SAFE (174 points above the cutoff). Biffle is one of NASCAR’s most improved drivers, and he is riding a wave of momentum. Based on performance, Biffle should easily qualify for the Chase for the Championship, but this team has a history of inconsistency, which could haunt them.

8. Jeff Gordon: 8-1 Sprint Cup Championship Odds

VULNERABLE (160 points above the cutoff). Gordon’s season reminds of his 2005 campaign. He is solid on the shorter tracks, as well as the restrictor plate and road course tracks, but struggles mightily on the intermediate venues. If this continues, he will face a challenging summer with tracks such as Michigan, Chicagoland, Indianapolis, Pocono, and California on the summer schedule.

9. Kasey Kahne: 15-1 Sprint Cup Championship Odds

VULNERABLE (112 points above the cutoff). Even in Kahne’s six-win season in 2006, he barely made the cut. He is no model of consistency, and suffers at NASCAR’s toughest tracks such as the road courses. The good news for Kahne is that there is a multitude of intermediate tracks on the summer schedule.

10. Kevin Harvick; 30-1 Sprint Cup Championship Odds

IN DANGER (83 points above the cutoff). Harvick has not finished in the top ten in over a month. This team continues to fade as the season progresses, similar to how they faded in 2005. Unless they pick up their performance, Harvick may fall out of the top twelve well before September.

11. Clint Bowyer: 35-1 Sprint Cup Championship Odds

IN DANGER (72 points above the cutoff). Bowyer has not finished in the top ten since his win at Richmond. Finishes of 30th or worse in two consecutive races have dropped Bowyer from fifth to eleventh, showing just how quickly a driver can plummet in the championship standings. Bowyer is in dire need of a top ten finish.

12. Tony Stewart: 8-1 Sprint Cup Championship Odds

VULNERABLE (7 points above the cutoff). Joe Gibbs Racing produces too much horsepower, and Stewart is an elite driver. It is unlikely that he will fall out of the top twelve. Stewart is enduring a string of bad luck, which could end at any time. Stewart typically strikes hot around this time of the year.

13. David Ragan:

DOUBTFUL (7 points below the cutoff). Inexperience will hinder David Ragan’s quest for a Chase for the Championship berth. He is still a 15th place driver.

14. Ryan Newman: 50-1 Sprint Cup Championship Odds

CONTENDER (10 points below the cutoff). Since his Daytona 500 victory, Newman has faded. He is still performing just as good as the drivers surrounding him, and he has some favorable tracks on the summer schedule. Hopefully, contract discussions will not prove to be a distraction.

15. Matt Kenseth: 15-1 Sprint Cup Championship Odds

CONTENDER (34 points below the cutoff). Four successive top ten finishes have given Kenseth and the 17 new life in the race to the Chase for the Championship. Like Newman, Kenseth is solid at many of the tracks remaining between now and September.

16. Martin Truex, Jr.: 40-1 Sprint Cup Championship Odds

CONTENDER (56 points below the cutoff). If Harvick, Bowyer, Kahne, or Gordon stumble, Truex, Jr. could be the driver that takes advantage. Like Stewart, he has endured his share of misfortune this season.

Other notable drivers include

Brian Vickers: CONTENDER

Travis Kvapil: DOUBTFUL

Bobby Labonte: DOUBTFUL

Juan Pablo Montoya: VERY DOUBTFUL

Kurt Busch: DOUBTFUL