The Carl Edwards And Kyle Busch Show In California

California Speedway -- 08/31/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Thursday Aug 28 2008 12:26pm

For the second time in 2008, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Fontana, California. With just two races remaining until the Chase for the Championship begins, pressure is mounting for drivers such as Kasey Kahne, David Ragan, Clint Bowyer, Denny Hamlin, and Matt Kenseth, as they are fighting for their championship aspirations.

Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch have dominated the headlines all season, and that should continue this weekend at California. Roush Fenway drivers Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth, and David Ragan are ones to watch, as well as the Chevrolets of Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., and Kevin Harvick.

Note that this is the final Labor Day race in California, as the Atlanta Motor Speedway inherits Labor Day weekend in 2009.

1. 99-Carl Edwards: 4-1 nascar odds

Why not bet on Carl Edwards. He is undoubtedly the hottest driver in NASCAR at this stage in the season. Edwards dominated the race at Michigan two weeks ago. Michigan is considered the sister track to California, as the configuration and size is nearly identical. However, the race at California is run at night as opposed to the heat of the day in Michigan, so the track surface is significantly cooler. Nevertheless, everything seems to be falling in the laps of Edwards and Kyle Busch this season. Last week, Busch and Edwards engaged in what may be the beginning stages of a championship tussle. In his last two visits to California, Edwards has finished second, and he won the February event in Fontana.

In eight career starts at California, Edwards has one win, six top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 6.8.

2. 18-Kyle Busch: 4-1 nascar odds

Despite all of the success Kyle Busch has accomplished in 2008, the fact that he has stared at the back bumper of Carl Edwards’ Ford for the last two weeks is eating him alive. Busch is obsessed with winning races, and anything less is a letdown. Other than Edwards, Busch is a clear-cut favorite for this race, as the pair of drivers own six wins in the previous seven races. Busch has performed well at California ever since his rookie season in 2005. His first career pole occurred at California in February of 2005, and his first victory was in September of that same year. In fact, Busch became the youngest winner in Sprint Cup with that victory. In his last two races at California, Busch has posted finishes of third and fourth.

In seven career starts at California, Kyle Busch has one win, three top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 10.2.

3. 16-Greg Biffle: 12-1 nascar odds

This could be the weekend that Greg Biffle embeds his name into the field of twelve chasing the title in 2008. He finished fourth at Michigan two weeks ago, and typically thrives at the high speed ovals. If you look at some of Biffle’s past results at California, they are quite deceiving. In February of 2006, Biffle owned a 13 second lead before his engine expired late in the race. Expect Biffle to contend for the victory on Sunday night, and secure his spot in the Chase for the Championship. In his last two visits to California, Biffle has scored finishes of 17th and 15th.

In ten career starts at California, Biffle has one win, two top five finishes, and two top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 19.6.

4. 48-Jimmie Johnson: 5-1 nascar odds

Following two consecutive dismal finishes, Jimmie Johnson is looking for a momentum shift at California. In 2007, Johnson struggled at Bristol, but won the following week at California. The chance of that occurring again is good. Johnson always runs well when the Sprint Cup Series visits the 2-mile oval. At Michigan two weeks ago, Johnson limped to a seventeenth place finish after he cut a tire following contact with his teammate Jeff Gordon. In his last two races at California, Johnson has one victory and a second place finish.

In eleven career starts at California, Johnson has two wins, seven top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 6.4.

5. 17-Matt Kenseth: 8-1 nascar odds

You can always count on a potent performance from Matt Kenseth whenever the series visits California. Which is why he is a safe bet for this weekend’s Pepsi 500. Not only is Kenseth long overdue for a win, but he has momentum on his side. He is coming off a fifth place finish at Michigan, and a ninth place showing at Bristol. He is doing what he needs to do in order to place himself among the twelve drivers chasing the Sprint Cup. In his last two races at California, Kenseth has recorded finishes of seventh and fifth.

In thirteen career starts at California, Kenseth has two wins, five top five finishes, and nine top ten finishes. He has an average of 9.9.

6. 29-Kevin Harvick: 30-1 nascar odds

With the exception of Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards, no other driver heading into California has as much momentum as Kevin Harvick. He has five top ten finishes in the last six races, and continues to distance himself from the Chase for the Championship cutoff. Another solid performance at California would likely have Harvick heading into Richmond comfortably in the top twelve. Harvick is not a favorite to win, but expect a top five or top ten finish. In his last two races at California, Harvick has posted finishes of 14th and eighth.

In twelve career starts at California, Harvick has three top ten finishes, and an average finish of 19.1.

7. 20-Tony Stewart: 10-1 nascar odds

Tony Stewart has to be getting tired of the ‘when are you going to win’ questions. He has come excruciatingly close to winning on several occasions in 2008, it just has not transpired for the two-time champion. Stewart has yet to win at California, but it is one of his more favorable tracks. Stewart could be a threat to win this weekend, but more than likely, he will post another solid finish, and cruise into the Chase for the Championship. In his last two races at California, Stewart has scored finishes of 13th and seventh.

In fourteen career starts at California, Stewart has three top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 16.0.

8. 6-David Ragan: 30-1 nascar odds

Just two weeks ago, David Ragan finished third at Michigan; therefore, solidifying himself as a Chase for the Championship contender. For those who may have perceived his third place finish as a happenstance, Ragan finished tenth at Bristol. He could be the Cinderella story of 2008. Ragan’s first Sprint Cup win will likely occur at a track such as California, but it is difficult to actually list him as an nascar odds-on favorite for this weekend’s race. However, he will win a race before the season concludes. In his last two races at California, Ragan has scored finishes of 12th and 14th.

In three career starts at Michigan, Ragan has an average finish of 14.0.

9. 11-Denny Hamlin: 15-1 nascar odds

Denny Hamlin finished third at Bristol, which was precisely what he needed, but he is still in danger of falling out of the top twelve. The good news is that the performance of the 11 team is solid, and they are fast week in and week out. However, they are not as consistent as they were in 2006 and 2007. With only a 57-point cushion back to 13th place, Hamlin needs another top five finish this weekend. In his last two trips to California, Hamlin has recorded finishes of 19th and 41st.

In five career starts at California, Hamlin has one top ten finish, and an average finish of 17.8.

10. 24-Jeff Gordon: 12-1 nascar odds

Jeff Gordon’s fifth place finish at Bristol last week could not have come at a more appropriate time. Just when it appeared as if Gordon was in the midst of a complete mid-season collapse, he scores a much-needed top five finish. Gordon and the 24 team have struggled somewhat on the speedways this season, so a win at California may be asking too much. Nonetheless, a top ten is plausible, and that would augment Gordon’s chances of qualifying for the Chase for the Championship. In his last two visits to the 2-mile speedway, Gordon has finishes of 22nd and third.

Gordon has started in all sixteen races at California. He has three wins, eight top five finishes, and eight top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.2.

Also keep an eye on Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (10-1 nascar odds), Clint Bowyer (50-1 nascar odds), Brian Vickers (25-1 nascar odds), Kasey Kahne (15-1 nascar odds), and Jeff Burton (30-1 nascar odds)

Great darkhorse picks include Jamie McMurray (100-1 nascar odds), Elliott Sadler (50-1 nascar odds), A.J. Allmendinger (100-1 nascar odds), David Reutimann (100-1 nascar odds), and Scott Riggs

Stay away from Kyle Petty, Reed Sorenson, Robby Gordon, Mike Skinner, and Marcos Ambrose

Odds Maker’s Top Ten

1. Kyle Busch 4-1 nascar odds
2. Carl Edwards 4-1 nascar odds
3. Jimmie Johnson 5-1 nascar odds
4. Matt Kenseth 8-1 nascar odds
5. Dale Earnhardt Jr 10-1 nascar odds
6. Tony Stewart 10-1 nascar odds
7. Greg Biffle 12-1 nascar odds
8. Jeff Gordon 12-1 nascar odds
9. Denny Hamlin 15-1 nascar odds
10. Kasey Kahne 15-1 nascar odds