First-Time Winner In Michigan?

Michigan International Speedway -- 06/15/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Friday Jun 13 2008 8:18am

The Sprint Cup Series heads to Michigan International Speedway for the LifeLock 400 on Sunday. Kasey Kahne is coming off his second win in three weeks and is sure to be a factor at the 2-mile oval. Kahne won this race in 2006. Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, and Jimmie Johnson are solid bets, but the checkered flag may wave for a first-time winner in 2008, such as Greg Biffle, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., or Matt Kenseth.

1. 16-Greg Biffle: 8-1 nascar odds

If nothing breaks, or if he avoids any pit road speeding penalties, Greg Biffle might just win the LifeLock 400 at Michigan on Sunday. Darlington, Dover, and Pocono are all races in which Biffle could have easily won. When the 16 team is on their game, intermediate tracks such as Michigan are Biffle’s bread and butter. He is the 2005 winner of this event. Look for him to be a solid contender on Sunday. In this race last year, Biffle qualified 14th and finished 38th.

In ten career starts at Michigan, Biffle has two victories, four top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 13.4. On all intermediate tracks, Biffle has eleven wins and an average finish of 16.7.

2. 88-Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: 10-1 nascar odds

Like Biffle and a host of other star drivers, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is searching for that first win of the 2008 season. This team is solid on all brands of tracks, but for some reason, tracks like Michigan favor Earnhardt, Jr.’s driving style. He typically runs a higher line than most drivers, therefore, his car has increased momentum exiting the turns. But not everyone can run the high line. The higher line may come into play, and that will benefit Earnhardt, Jr. and Kasey Kahne. In this race last year, Earnhardt, Jr. finished fifth after qualifing 23rd while driving for DEI.

In sixteen career starts at Michigan, Earnhardt, Jr. has yet to win, but he has posted two top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 17.2. On all intermediate tracks, Earnhardt, Jr. has six victories, and an average finish of 16.7.

3. 99-Carl Edwards: 5-1 nascar odds

Carl Edwards is a solid bet based on the fact that he is the defending race winner of this event, and he won the race at California back in February. California is considered the sister track to Michigan. Edwards two other victories occurred at Las Vegas and Atlanta, both 1.5-mile tracks. Clearly, these types of facilities suit Edwards’ driving style. Roush Fenway Racing is always stout when the Sprint Cup Series visits Michigan. As mentioned before, Edwards is the defending winner of this race after qualifying in the 12th position. Just an interesting fact here for you Carl Edwards fans, he made his Cup debut at Michigan in August of 2004.

In seven career starts at Michigan, Edwards has one victory, four top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 7.3. On all intermediate tracks, Edwards has nine wins, and an average finish of 11.9.

4. 18-Kyle Busch: 5-1 nascar odds

Just consider last week’s race at Pocono as a bump in the road in Kyle Busch’s quest for the Sprint Cup trophy. Busch is ready to move on at Michigan and give Toyota their first win at the 2-mile facility. Busch should be one of the favorites, as he has been all year. I would not count on him encountering two consecutive substandard finishes. Busch’s first Cup victory occurred at California, which has a similar configuration to Michigan. Competitors have complained about the quantity of horsepower produced by Toyota, and Michigan is a track that favors horsepower. In this race a year ago, Busch qualified third and finishes sixth while driving for Hendrick Motorsports.

In six career starts at Michigan, Kyle Busch has two top ten finishes and an average finish of 20.7. On all intermediate tracks, Busch has six wins, and an average finish of 17.4.

5. 48-Jimmie Johnson: 8-1 nascar odds

It is difficult to believe that Jimmie Johnson has yet to win at Michigan. In fact, a Chevrolet driver has not won at Michigan since Jeff Gordon edged out Ricky Rudd in June of 2001. Johnson won that Labor Day race at California last fall, so he knows how to motor around the 2-mile venues. Johnson was contending for the win last year when he had to make an unscheduled pit stop after one of his tires began to go down. He ended up finishing 19th after qualifying second.

In twelve career starts at Michigan, Johnson has two top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 14.8. On all intermediate tracks, Johnson has 26 wins, and an average finish of 10.4.

6. 17-Matt Kenseth: 10-1 nascar odds

While everyone seems to be concerned about the fact that Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Tony Stewart, and Jeff Gordon have yet to win in 2008, Matt Kenseth, also searching for his first win of the season, is creeping closer and closer to victory lane. After four consecutive top ten finishes, Kenseth has momentum heading into one of his best tracks. In this race a year ago, an accident forced Kenseth to settle for a 42nd place finish after qualifying 26th.

In sixteen career starts at Michigan, Kenseth has two wins, seven top five finishes, and eleven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 9.7. On all intermediate tracks, Kenseth has eleven wins, and an average finish of 13.9.

7. 9-Kasey Kahne: 8-1 nascar odds

Without warning, Kasey Kahne has become one of the hottest drivers on the NASCAR circuit. He spent most of his time in midpack until he won the All-Star event. He followed that up with a win in the Coca Cola 600, and last week he dominated the Pocono 500. Kahne’s strength is the intermediate-style tracks, so he should be a factor on Sunday. However, sometimes Kahne will fall completely off the radar just as quickly as he sped into the limelight. In this race a year ago, Kahne finished 31st after qualifying third.

In eight career starts at Michigan, Kahne has one victory, four top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 15.2. On all intermediate tracks, Kahne has eight wins, and an average finish of 18.6.

8. 20-Tony Stewart: 10-1 nascar odds

The barrage of bad luck has plagued Tony Stewart ever since his lap 1 wreck with Elliott Sadler at Darlington last month. Stewart could have, no he should have won the Coca Cola 600. He owned a massive lead over Kasey Kahne when his tire deflated with just a couple of laps to go. Michigan is a track where Joe Gibbs Racing with their Toyota horsepower should prevail. While Kyle Busch has been the ringleader for Toyota, Stewart is still the team’s best driver. Look for Stewart to shake the monkey off his back this weekend. In this race a year ago, Stewart finished third after starting the race in 41st.

In eighteen career starts at Michigan, Stewart has one victory, eight top five finishes, and twelve top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.9. On all intermediate tracks, Stewart has eighteen wins, and an average finish of 12.5.

9. 11-Denny Hamlin: 12-1 nascar odds

Denny Hamlin has a little momentum on his side after his third place effort at Pocono this weekend. Like his two teammates Stewart and Busch, Hamlin is a solid bet for this weekend’s event. In this race last year, Hamlin qualified seventh and finished 14th.

In four career starts at Michigan, Hamlin has one top five finish, and two top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 10.0. On all intermediate tracks, Hamlin has two wins, and an average finish of 13.4.

10. 8-Mark Martin: 40-1 nascar odds

Whenever Mark Martin straps into that number 8 DEI Chevrolet, you can almost count on a top ten finish. In eleven starts this year, he has five top ten finishes, nearly 50%. In this race last year, Martin finished 29th after qualifying 15th.

In 44 career starts at Michigan, Martin has four wins, sixteen top five finishes, and 27 top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 13.0. On all intermediate tracks, Martin has eighteen wins, and an average finish of 12.6.

Also, keep an eye on Jeff Gordon (10-1 nascar odds), Kurt Busch (30-1 nascar odds), Jeff Burton (40-1 nascar odds), Clint Bowyer (40-1 nascar odds), and Martin Truex, Jr. (40-1 nascar odds)

Great darkhorse picks include Brian Vickers (40-1 nascar odds), David Ragan (30-1 nascar odds), Dave Blaney (100-1 nascar odds), Travis Kvapil (100-1 nascar odds), and Bobby Labonte (100-1 nascar odds)

Stay away from Terry Labonte, Jason Leffler, J.J. Yeley, Dario Franchitti, and Robby Gordon

Odds Maker’s Top Ten

1. Kyle Busch 5-1 nascar odds
2. Carl Edwards 5-1 nascar odds
3. Jimmie Johnson 8-1 nascar odds
4. Greg Biffle 8-1 nascar odds
5. Kasey Kahne 8-1 nascar odds
6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 10-1 nascar odds
7. Jeff Gordon 10-1 nascar odds
8. Tony Stewart 10-1 nascar odds
9. Matt Kenseth 10-1 nascar odds
10. Denny Hamlin 12-1 nascar odds