Roush Fenway Will Win Their Third Straight Race

Atlanta Motor Speedway -- 03/09/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Thursday Mar 6 2008 12:48pm

It is no secret that Roush Fenway Racing has quickly materialized as the organization to beat. Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, and Greg Biffle have all looked phenomenal in the early portion of the season, and sophomore driver David Ragan has displayed vast improvement. Jamie McMurray is a little behind the eight-ball, but there is plenty of time for him to improve.

Kobalt Tools 500 Projected Top Ten

1. Greg Biffle, Ford- +1150 Odds

If it were not for a driver error late in the race, Greg Biffle may have been the Roush Fenway driver celebrating in the Las Vegas Motor Speedway winner’s circle. Biffle passed Carl Edwards on a couple of occasions throughout the race, so there is a solid argument that he had the better of the two cars. Nevertheless, Biffle crossed the finish line in third position, and is starting to show signs that he is returning to his 2005 form. He won six races that season and finished second in the final championship standings.

In ten career starts at Atlanta, Biffle has posted two top five finishes, five top ten finishes, and has an average finish of 15.9.

2. Kyle Busch, Toyota- +600 Odds

One of these days, Toyota will win a Sprint Cup race, perhaps this weekend at Atlanta. Kyle Busch was fast at Las Vegas and he typically performs well at the faster venues. Atlanta is renowned for its unprecedented speeds. It has been noted on several occasions that Kyle Busch is the most consistent of the three Joe Gibbs Racing drivers at the present time.

In seven career starts at Atlanta, Kyle Busch has yet to score a top ten finish, and has an average finish of 22.6.

3. Carl Edwards, Ford- +400 Odds

Carl Edwards is the nascar odds-on favorite to win the Kobalt Tools 500 this weekend. Edwards won his very first Cup race at Atlanta three years ago by edging out Jimmie Johnson. He is aiming for his third consecutive victory, something that only Johnson has accomplished this decade. Frankly, it would surprise no one if Edwards scores his third consecutive victory this weekend, even without crew chief Bob Osborne, who is serving a six-race suspension.

In seven career starts at Atlanta, Edwards has scored two wins, four top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 8.7 at the Atlanta Motor Speedway.

4. Jeff Gordon, Chevrolet- +550 Odds

An uncharacteristic blunder by Jeff Gordon resulted in a dismal 35th place finish last week. Expect Gordon to rebound at Atlanta, a track that suits his driving style to a tee. Gordon and Matt Kenseth have been pointing fingers since their tangle last week, so it will be interesting to see how they race each other this weekend. We all know that both former champions will be near the front of the pack. Hendrick Motorsports has a lot to prove as well. They have been a little behind the Roush Fenway Racing group in 2008.

In thirty-one career starts at Atlanta, Jeff Gordon has scored four wins, twelve top five finishes, and 19 top ten finishes. He has posted an average finish of 13.1.

5. Matt Kenseth, Ford- +750 Odds

Matt Kenseth was a victim of Jeff Gordon’s error in judgment last week. One stat that is rather surprising is that Kenseth has yet to win at the Atlanta Motor Speedway. This type of venue is Kenseth and the 17 team’s bread and butter. Look for a possible victory by Kenseth this weekend as he hopes to erase that doughnut in the Atlanta win column.

In sixteen career starts at Atlanta, Kenseth has posted six top five finishes, nine top ten finishes, and has an average finish of 14.9.

6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Chevrolet- +800 Odds

Much to the delight of Earnhardt nation, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. could have easily won last week at Las Vegas. As you may know, Earnhardt, Jr. does not have to best track record at Las Vegas, but Atlanta is a different story. He loves this racetrack, and is one of the clear-cut favorites heading into this weekend. Look for the 88 Chevy to contend for the win this weekend.

In sixteen career starts at Atlanta, Earnhardt, Jr. has posted one victory, seven top five finishes, and nine top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.2.

7. Jimmie Johnson, Chevrolet- +425 Odds

Has the mighty fallen? Probably not, but NASCAR’s best team over the past three seasons looked human last week. Chad Knaus and the 48 group probably worked overtime throughout the week trying to find the chink in their armor that haunted them last week. This team will bounce back, and everyone will forget that they limped to a 29th place finish at Las Vegas. Johnson is shooting for his third consecutive win at Atlanta.

In thirteen career starts at Atlanta, Johnson has scored three wins, eight top five finishes, and nine top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 9.4.

8. Tony Stewart, Toyota- +850 Odds

Tony Stewart is as tough as nails, so his foot will probably not hinder him this weekend. Like Johnson, Stewart is dependably fast at Atlanta every time the Sprint Cup series visits the 1.54-mile facility. Look for Stewart to run among the bottom half of the top ten at Atlanta. This team has a little work to do in order to catch up to the trio of Roush Fenway stars.

In eighteen career starts at Atlanta, Stewart has scored two wins, seven top five finishes, and eleven top ten finishes. He has posted an average finish of 12.6.

9. Kevin Harvick, Chevrolet- +2800 Odds

Kevin Harvick posted two consecutive top ten finishes at California and Las Vegas, which is why his nascar odds are somewhat staggering. Harvick has finished higher than Kasey Kahne in two consecutive races, yet Kahne’s nascar odds are more than twice as high as Harvick’s. One thing that you must remember, do not count out the man they call ‘Happy’.

In fourteen career starts at Atlanta, Harvick has posted one victory, two top five finishes, and two top ten finishes. His average finish is 24.4.

10. Ryan Newman, Dodge- +3000 Odds

Ryan Newman and the 12 team are a bottom-half top ten team right now, but he is still the best qualifier, especially at Atlanta. He has qualified on the pole seven times at Atlanta in twelve races. Believe it or not, I think track position will be crucial this weekend, and Newman will likely have the track position and the preferred pit stall.

In twelve career starts at Atlanta, Newman has posted one top five finish, and four top ten finishes. He has posted an average finish of 18.8.

Also look out for- Kasey Kahne (+1350), Jeff Burton (+3000), Kurt Busch (+1800), Denny Hamlin (+1800), and Mark Martin (+2800)

Great darkhorse picks- Travis Kvapil, David Ragan, Juan Pablo Montoya, Bobby Labonte, and Scott Riggs

Stay away from- Jamie McMurray, Clint Bowyer, J.J. Yeley, Michael Waltrip, and all of the rookies.

Odds makers Top Ten

1. Carl Edwards (+400 Odds) 2. Jimmie Johnson (+425 Odds) 3. Jeff Gordon (+550 Odds) 4. Kyle Busch (+600 Odds) 5. Matt Kenseth (+750 Odds) 6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (+800 Odds) 7. Tony Stewart (+850 Odds) 8. Greg Biffle (+1150 Odds) 9. Kasey Kahne (+1350 Odds) 10. Kurt Busch and Denny Hamlin (+1800 Odds)