Chase For The Championship Heats Up At Kansas

Kansas Speedway -- 09/28/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Friday Sep 26 2008 12:13pm

Following back-to-back victories by Greg Biffle at New Hampshire and Dover, the Sprint Cup Series heads to the Heartland for this weekend’s Camping World 400 at Kansas Speedway. Biffle is NASCAR’s hottest driver, and it would surprise no one if he amassed his third consecutive victory at a track that he won at a year ago.

Kyle Busch looks to recoup the momentum that he lost prior to the Chase for the Championship. ‘Shrub’ is no doubt on a mission with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Keep an eye on some non-Chasers, such as David Ragan, Mark Martin, Martin Truex, Jr., and David Reutimann.

1. 18-Kyle Busch: 5-1 nascar odds

Kyle Busch is a man on a mission, and could take out his recent frustrations on the rest of the Sprint Cup field this weekend at Kansas. Busch is reeling following finishes of 34th and 43rd at New Hampshire and Dover. He won at Atlanta and Chicagoland, tracks that have a similar configuration as Kansas. Expect Busch to enjoy a resurgence of sorts at Kansas this weekend, and perhaps scoring his ninth victory of the 2008 season. In his last two races at Kansas, Busch has scored finishes of seventh and 41st.

In three career starts at Kansas, Kyle Busch has one top ten finish, and an average finish of 26.5. He has seven career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 17.4.

2. 16-Greg Biffle: 5-1 nascar odds

Greg Biffle is heading to the track in which he recorded his only win in 2007. Following back-to-back wins at New Hampshire and Dover, Biffle has an excess of momentum on his side, and many expect him to score his third consecutive victory. Throughout his career, most of his success has occurred on intermediate speedways such as Kansas. That is the scary thing about Biffle’s recent surge; we have yet to arrive at the tracks that he typically thrives. In his last two races at Kansas, Biffle has scored finishes of twelfth and first.

In six career starts at Kansas, Biffle has one victory, three top five finishes, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.0. He has thirteen career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 16.2.

3. 99-Carl Edwards: 9-2 nascar odds

While his teammate Greg Biffle is coming off two consecutive wins, Carl Edwards has scored back-to-back third place finishes as we head into Kansas for this weekend’s event. Edwards has fallen short of victory, but he has taken over the top spot in the Sprint Cup championship standings. Like Biffle, Edwards typically thrives at tracks such as Kansas, so do not be surprised to see a seventh celebratory back flip on Sunday. In his last two trips to Kansas, Edwards has scored finishes of sixth and 37th.

In four career starts at Kansas, Edwards has one top five finish, and two top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 17.0. He has eleven career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 11.5.

4. 48-Jimmie Johnson: 9-2 nascar odds

With all of the trials and tribulations that Kyle Busch and the 18 team have encountered over the past two weeks, Jimmie Johnson has emerged as the favorite to capture his third consecutive championship. Johnson has yet to win a race at Kansas, but the 1.5-mile speedway certainly favors his driving style. Expect another solid finish and perhaps a win for Jimmie Johnson. In his last two races at Kansas, Johnson has recorded finishes of 14th and third. In 2006, he led the most laps.

In six career starts at Kansas, Johnson has one top five finish, and four top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.0. He has 28 career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 10.1.

5. 17-Matt Kenseth: 10-1 nascar odds

Matt Kenseth almost broke his 27-race winless skid last weekend at Dover. Unfortunately, he was on the losing side of a fantastic duel with his teammates Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards. Kenseth is stout on the intermediate tracks, and should be a factor this weekend at Kansas even though statistically, this is not one of his better tracks. His last win occurred at Homestead, which is also a 1.5-mile speedway. In his last two races at Kansas, Kenseth has scored finishes of 23rd and 35th. However, those finishes are a bit deceiving.

Kenseth has appeared in all seven races at Kansas. He has one top five finish, and two top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 22.1. He has eleven career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 13.9.

6. 07-Clint Bowyer: 25-1 nascar odds

Many will contend that Clint Bowyer should have won this race a year ago. He was running in the second position under caution when eventual race winner Greg Biffle slowed down while running out of gas. NASCAR officials declared Biffle the winner, but many feel as if Bowyer was the deserving winner. Bowyer would love nothing more than to win at his home track in front of his family and friends. He is not an nascar odds-on favorite to win this weekend, but Kansas is one of his best tracks statistically. Expect him to post another solid top ten finish. In his last two races at Kansas, Bowyer has scored finishes of ninth and second.

In two career starts at Kansas, Bowyer has one top five finish, and two top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 5.5. He has one career win on an intermediate speedway, and an average finish of 17.2.

7. 29-Kevin Harvick: 30-1 nascar odds

Kevin Harvick continues to post solid finishes, but he needs a victory. He has not won a race since the Daytona 500 in February of 2007. In 2008, he has produced strong showings on the 1.5-mile facilities, such as a third place finish at Chicagoland in July, so this could be a golden opportunity for Harvick. However, he must find a way to outrun Johnson, Biffle, Edwards, and Kyle Busch. In his last two visits to Kansas, Harvick has posted finishes of 15th and sixth.

In seven career starts at Kansas, Harvick has two top ten finishes, and an average finish of 16.1. He has seven career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 16.1.

8. 20-Tony Stewart: 12-1 nascar odds

Only eight races remain in the 2008 season, which means Tony Stewart has only eight more chances to avoid his first winless season since joining the Sprint Cup Series. He won this race two years ago by virtue of gas mileage. He almost won this race a year ago as he was leading when the skies opened up. However, NASCAR decided to allow the race to continue once the rain stopped. Stewart has not been fast enough to outrun Biffle, Edwards, or Johnson over the past month, but I would not totally discount the two-time champion. In his last two races at Kansas, Stewart has a win and a 39th place finish.

In seven career starts at Kansas, Stewart has one win, three top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.1. He has eighteen career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 12.5.

9. 44-David Reutimann: 100-1 nascar odds

Every week, it seems as if a non-Chaser steps up and mixes it up with the championship contenders. At New Hampshire, it was Martin Truex, Jr. At Dover, it was Mark Martin. At Kansas, do not be surprised if you see the UPS Toyota driven by David Reutimann run with the frontrunners. As one of NASCAR’s darkhorse drivers, Reutimann has performed commendably over the past month, and could steal the show this weekend. A non-Chaser won this race in 2006 and 2007, and Reutimann could keep that streak alive.

Reutimann only has one start at Kansas. He finished in the 31st position after starting the race in the 25th position. He has an average finish of 26.9 on intermediate speedways.

10. 11-Denny Hamlin: 12-1 nascar odds

It has been a feast or famine season for Denny Hamlin in 2008. He made his inaugural Sprint Cup start at Kansas in 2005 where he immediately impressed his peers. However, Kansas is one of Hamlin’s weak tracks statistically speaking. In his last two races at Kansas, Hamlin has posted finishes of 18th and 29th.

In three career starts at Kansas, his best finish is 18th, which occurred in 2006. He has an average finish of 26.3. He has three career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 14.2.

Also, keep an eye on Jeff Gordon (20-1 nascar odds), Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (12-1 nascar odds), Jeff Burton (30-1 nascar odds, Mark Martin (30-1 nascar odds), and David Ragan (25-1 nascar odds)

Great darkhorse picks include Michael Waltrip (100-1 nascar odds), A.J. Allmendinger (100-1 nascar odds), Brian Vickers (25-1 nascar odds), Jamie McMurray (75-1 nascar odds), and Dave Blaney (100-1 nascar odds)

Stay away from Regan Smith, Michael McDowell, Joe Nemechek, and Sam Hornish, Jr.

Odds Maker’s Top Ten

1. Carl Edwards 9-2 nascar odds
2. Jimmie Johnson 9-2 nascar odds
3. Greg Biffle 5-1 nascar odds
4. Kyle Busch 5-1 nascar odds
5. Matt Kenseth 10-1 nascar odds
6. Tony Stewart 12-1 nascar odds
7. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 12-1 nascar odds
8. Denny Hamlin 12-1 nascar odds
9. Jeff Gordon 20-1 nascar odds
10. Clint Bowyer, David Ragan, and Brian Vickers 25-1 nascar odds