Tony Stewart Will End The Hendrick Dominance at Martinsville

Martinsville Speedway -- 03/30/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Thursday Mar 27 2008 2:12pm

Following a rare intermission in the NASCAR Sprint Cup schedule, the series is back on track at Martinsville Speedway this weekend for the Goody’s Cool Orange 500. Martinsville Speedway is NASCAR’s shortest track and slowest oval, and once described by Matt Kenseth as ‘like racing around two light poles in a mall parking lot’.

Hendrick Motorsports, Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson in particular, have been virtually unstoppable at the 0.525-mile facility. Since 2003, Johnson and Gordon have combined for eight wins in ten races at Martinsville. Tony Stewart and Rusty Wallace are the only non-Hendrick drivers to win at the track in that time span. Surely, Gordon and Johnson are safe bets for this weekend, even if they are not showing the same ascendancy they enjoyed last year.

Tony Stewart is the only active driver to win at Martinsville since Kurt Busch in October of 2002. Obviously, he is the favorite to break the Hendrick supremacy.

Projected Top Ten

1. 20-Tony Stewart- +700 Odds

Tony Stewart had the best car at Bristol two weeks ago, but as we all know, the best car does not always pull into victory lane. A late caution forced separate pit strategies for the leaders, and it worked against Stewart. In addition, to make matters worse, his buddy, Kevin Harvick, took him out. The two drivers have made amends, so expect no retaliation. Just expect Tony Stewart to dominate Martinsville, comparable to how he dominated Bristol. This time, Stewart should prevail. His last victory was at Indianapolis last August, so the driver nicknamed ‘Smoke’ is overdue for a win. His last win at Martinsville was this race two years ago. He had to pass Jimmie Johnson, and then hold off Jeff Gordon for the win. The scenario may be similar this weekend.

In eighteen career starts at Martinsville, Stewart has scored two victories, six top five finishes, and ten top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.3.

2. 48-Jimmie Johnson- +500 Odds

The upcoming race at Martinsville could not have come at a better time for Jimmie Johnson and the 48 group. What a sight for sore eyes for a team that has struggled. Well, they have not been awful by any means, but this team has set their standards so high by winning a bundle of races, therefore, the early stages of the 2008 Sprint Cup season is a disappointment. Johnson has won three consecutive races at Martinsville, so there is something about the track that suits his driving style. Look for Johnson to score only his second top five finish of the season this weekend.

In twelve career starts at Martinsville, Johnson has posted four wins, eight top five finishes, and eleven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 6.2.

3. 24-Jeff Gordon- +500 Odds

Jeff Gordon is debatably NASCAR’s best short track driver, which makes his 11th place showing at Bristol somewhat baffling. It is not as if Gordon ran fifth all day and had some kind of misfortune that dropped him back. He finished about where he ran. With a top ten in sight, Gordon was passed by David Gilliland and Aric Alimorla. Bristol is generally one of Gordon’s best tracks, as is Martinsville, so could the four-time champion be in for another letdown? We will see, but I think Gordon and the 24 team will redeem themselves.

In thirty career starts at Martinsville, Gordon has scored seven wins, eighteen top five finishes, and 24 top ten finishes. He has posted an average finish of 7.2.

4. 31-Jeff Burton- +2001 Odds

The nascar odds for Jeff Burton seem a little low for a driver that has won a race, completed every lap, and finished in the top fifteen in every race in 2008. Burton is arguably the most consistent driver in the garage, and he has emerged as NASCAR’s veteran leader. Burton has enjoyed some success at Martinsville, even though it has been quite a while since he has scored a win at the track. His one and only win occurred in 1997 to be exact. Burton is a smart and patient driver, which can be the difference in winning and losing at a track like Martinsville. Furthermore, the Richard Childress Racing operation seems to be on top of their game right now.

In twenty-seven career starts at Martinsville, Burton has one victory, nine top five finishes, and thirteen top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 14.9. Burton finished last in his first two starts at Martinsville in 1994.

5. 88-Dale Earnhardt, Jr.- +900 Odds

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has scored three consecutive top five finishes, and is currently the most consistent Hendrick Motorsports driver. Even though he is performing at a high level, he has yet to have that winning car. Martinsville is a track that Earnhardt, Jr. has enjoyed mixed results. A year ago, he led the most laps before a pit stop relegated him to a fifth place finish. With a Hendrick-prepared chassis, Earnhardt, Jr. should enjoy a solid day at Martinsville, but it will be tough for him to overcome Stewart, Johnson, and Gordon.

In sixteen career starts at Martinsville, Earnhardt, Jr. has yet to win; however, he has posted seven top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 14.8.

6. 11-Denny Hamlin- +800 Odds

A fuel pickup issue dropped Denny Hamlin from the lead to sixth place all in a matter of a lap and a half. It was a tough break for a driver that seems to lead tons of laps, but does not win very often. There always seems to be a reason why Hamlin cannot close the deal, whether it is a slow pit stop, speeding penalty, or a fuel pump issue. Throughout his brief career, Hamlin has excelled at the shorter and flatter tracks, so Martinsville is right up his alley. He should have no problem running with the big boys this weekend at Martinsville. A win could be in the cards for the Virginia native.

In five career starts at Martinsville, Hamlin has posted two top five finishes, and four top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.2.

7. 18-Kyle Busch- +700 Odds

Kyle Busch was leading when his steering locked up at Bristol. He just always seems to be running near the front of the pack. He is the Sprint Cup championship points leader for good reason, and does not seem to be decelerating at all. Busch has adapted well on the short tracks early in his career, and has enjoyed some strong showings at Martinsville in particular. He finished fourth in this race a year ago.

In six career starts at Martinsville, Kyle Busch has posted three top five finishes, four top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 13.2.

8. 12-Ryan Newman- +2001 Odds

Ryan Newman was fast at Bristol before he inadvertently became apart of the Dario Franchitti and Jamie McMurray fender bender. He finished second last fall at Martinsville, and many would argue that he was set up to pass, or move Johnson out of the way before David Ragan spun out, causing the race-ending caution.

In twelve career starts at Martinsville, Newman has posted five top five finishes, six top ten finishes, and has an average finish of 14.0.

9. 29-Kevin Harvick- +1400 Odds

In fourteen career starts at Martinsville, Harvick has posted five top ten finishes, and has an average finish of 19.3.

10. 2-Kurt Busch- +1801 Odds

In fifteen career starts at Martinsville, Kurt Busch has posted one victory, two top five finishes, and four top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 20.3.

Also keep an eye on- Clint Bowyer, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, and Greg Biffle

Great darkhorse picks- Bobby Labonte, Jamie McMurray, David Gilliland, and Aric Almirola

Stay away from- Martin Truex, Jr., Dario Franchitti, Sam Hornish, Jr., and Kyle Petty