Last Chance For Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth

Homestead-Miami Speedway -- 11/16/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Friday Nov 14 2008 2:16pm

It is difficult to believe that the 2008 Sprint Cup season is already drawing to a close this weekend at Homestead. The year was full of highlights, but none measure up to the feat that Jimmie Johnson is about to accomplish. He embarks upon a third consecutive Sprint Cup championship this weekend. After thirty years, NASCAR icon Cale Yarborough must share the immaculate record.

There are additional storylines for this weekend’s event, such as the recent merger between Dale Earnhardt, Inc. and Chip Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates, citing the economic state of some NASCAR operations. NASCAR will ban all testing on NASCAR sanctioned facilities starting in January of 2009 in an effort to reduce costs. Furthermore, four-time champion Jeff Gordon, as well as 2003 champion Matt Kenseth, and 2007 Daytona 500 winner Kevin Harvick are hoping to avoid the dreaded doughnut in the win column.

1. 99-Carl Edwards: + 200 odds

Carl Edwards is fully aware that a Sprint Cup championship is not likely in the cards for 2008, but that does not mean that he is not going to hit the track full throttle. He has one last opportunity to treat the grandstands to one of his celebratory back flips. Additionally, Edwards is 59 points behind Clint Bowyer in the Nationwide Series championship fight, so he may not go home completely empty handed. In his last two starts at Homestead, Edwards has placed finishes of eighth and fifth.

In four career starts at Homestead, Edwards has yet to win, but he has scored two top five finishes and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 7.8. He has thirteen career wins on intermediate speedways and an average finish of 11.4.

2. 26-Jamie McMurray: +1800 odds

Jamie McMurray would love the keep racing throughout the winter. He is arguably the top running non-Chaser in the Sprint Cup Series. In fact, he is performing better than half of the drivers participating in the Chase for the Championship. McMurray and the 26 group have plenty to look forward to in 2009. A victory to end to the 2008 season would no doubt amplify McMurray’s confidence heading into the off-season. McMurray is a great bet if you like darkhorses. In his last two races at Homestead, McMurray has finishes of 35th and 14th.

In six career starts at Homestead, McMurray has two top ten finishes, and an average finish of 17.5. He has one career win on an intermediate speedway, and an average finish of 18.4.

3. 18-Kyle Busch: +700 odds

Kyle Busch has finished within the top ten in three consecutive races, so he appears to have momentum on his side. Is it enough to overcome the Roushkateers, however? This has been Roush Fenway Racing’s playground over the past several seasons. Busch has enhanced his performance on the intermediate speedways, and should be one of the contenders on Sunday. In his last two starts at Homestead, he has placed finishes of 38th and 20th.

In three career starts at Homestead, Kyle Busch has not finished higher than 20th, and has one DNF. He has an average finish of 33.0. He has seven career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 17.0.

4. 16-Greg Biffle: +350 odds

From 2004 to 2006, this was Greg Biffle’s domain. He flat out dominated this race in 2004, and in 2005 and 2006, he took the lead late in the race, and did not look back. He heads into this weekend’s race with every intention of capturing his fourth win at the South Florida facility. Biffle is no longer in championship contention, so winning the season finale is his only objective this weekend…no points racing here. This track favors Roush Fenway Racing, as Bobby Labonte was the last non-Roush driver to win this event in 2003 while driving for Joe Gibbs Racing. In his last two starts at Homestead, Biffle has posted finishes of first and 13th.

In six career starts at Homestead, Biffle has three wins, three top five finishes, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.7. He has 13 career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 15.9.

5. 48-Jimmie Johnson: +470 odds

If Jimmie Johnson can finish 36th or better, he is the 2008 Sprint Cup championship. As he embarks upon NASCAR history, it is safe to say that he is the driver of the decade. With seven wins this year, Johnson has pieced together another tour de force of a season. Only a bizarre wreck early in the race would jeopardize Johnson’s championship aspirations. In his last two starts at Homestead, Johnson has placed finishes of ninth and seventh.

In seven career starts at Homestead, Johnson has two top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 13.4. He has thirty career wins on intermediate speedways, second among all active drivers, and an average finish of 9.9.

6. 17-Matt Kenseth: +700 odds

Matt Kenseth returns to the site of his last victory in Sprint Cup competition. It is difficult to believe that it has been a year since Kenseth’s last victory. Clearly, he heads into the weekend with a wealth of motivation. Kenseth’s strengths have been on the 1.5-mile facilities, so look for the 2003 champion to be among the race-winning contenders on Sunday. In his last two races at Homestead, Kenseth has posted finishes of sixth and first.

In eight career starts at Homestead, Kenseth has one win, two top five finishes, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 20.0. Kenseth has eleven career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 13.9.

7. 24-Jeff Gordon: +1200 odds

Like Kenseth, Jeff Gordon faces the possibility of a winless season. Gordon has never won a race at Homestead, so he could kill two birds with one stone this weekend. Gordon has vastly improved on the intermediate speedways since the spring and summer months, so he could be a sleeper. However, I would not bet against the Roush Fenway Racing gang, even if it is Jeff Gordon. In his last two starts at Homestead, Gordon has placed finishes of 24th and fourth.

In nine career starts at Homestead, Jeff Gordon has four top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 10.6. He has forty career wins on intermediate speedways, which leads all active drivers, and has an average finish of 12.0.

8. 6-David Ragan: +1800 odds

David Ragan is looking for that elusive first career win. He could be Sprint Cup’s only first-time winner if he pulls it off.

Ragan has only one career start at Homestead, and he placed a tenth place finish. He has eleven career top ten finishes on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 20.6.

9. 88-Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: +1200 odds

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is in a chase of his own as he tries to maintain a top ten position in the championship standings. He is only three points ahead of eleventh place Kyle Busch. In his last two starts at Homestead, Earnhardt, Jr. has placed finishes of 19th and 36th.

In eight career starts at Homestead, Earnhardt, Jr. has never finished inside the top ten. He has an average finish of 21.2. He has seven career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 16.6.

10. 29-Kevin Harvick: +2300 odds

This is Kevin Harvick’s final chance to win a race in 2008. Look for another solid performance from the Richard Childress Racing outfit. In his last two races at Homestead, Harvick has placed finishes of fifth and 19th.

In seven career starts at Homestead, Harvick has two top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 10.1. He has seven career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 15.9.

Also, keep an eye on Denny Hamlin (+1200 odds), Tony Stewart (+1200 odds), Jeff Burton (+2300 odds), Kurt Busch (+1300 odds), and Clint Bowyer (+3000 odds)

Great darkhorse picks include David Reutimann, Brian Vickers, Casey Mears, Juan Pablo Montoya, and A.J. Allmendinger

Stay away from Reed Sorenson, Tony Raines, and Joe Nemechek

Odds Maker’s Top Ten

1. Carl Edwards +200 odds
2. Greg Biffle +350 odds
3. Jimmie Johnson +470 odds
4. Kyle Busch +700 odds
5. Matt Kenseth +700 odds
6. Jeff Gordon +1200 odds
7. Tony Stewart +1200 odds
8. Dale Earnhardt Jr, +1200 odds
9. Denny Hamlin +1200 odds
10. Kurt Busch +1300 odds