Darlington Owes Hamlin A Win

Darlington Raceway -- 05/10/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Thursday May 8 2008 1:51pm

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to the most storied speedway this weekend. Many consider Darlington Raceway as the Indianapolis of the South, all apologies to Daytona. The egg-shaped 1.366-mile oval is unarguably the most distinctive track on the circuit. It often distinguishes the professionals from the amateurs. Winning at Darlington is an accomplishment because it is such a grueling track to drive. Some of NASCAR greatest drivers have enjoyed success at Darlington. David Pearson, Richard Petty, Cale Yarborough, Dale Earnhardt, and Jeff Gordon just to name a few.

Keep in mind, the track underwent a repaving since they raced here last May, but judging by what the drivers have to say, the racing will be similar, just faster.

1. 11-Denny Hamlin- 7-1 Odds

What a heartbreaking end to what could have been the perfect weekend in Richmond. Denny Hamlin won the Nationwide Series event on Friday, as well as the pole for the Sprint Cup race, and he led 381 laps in the main event. Unfortunately, a deflated tire and a controversial caution marred what could have been a perfect homecoming for the Virginia native. Hamlin and the 11 team are ready to move on and it is off to Darlington where Hamlin led the most laps and finished second a year ago. Hamlin dominated the race, but a mistake on pit road cost him valuable track position that he could never regain. Many will argue that the ‘Lady In Black’ owes Hamlin one. Do not forget that he has won two consecutive Nationwide Series races at Darlington

In two career starts at Darlington, Hamlin has one top five finish and two top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 6.0.

2. 99-Carl Edwards- 6-1 Odds

Obviously, Carl Edwards has been the driver to beat on the intermediate style racetracks in 2008. However, Darlington is no cookie cutter track. This track is a driver’s track whereas Atlanta and Texas are handling tracks. Of course, the car must handle good in order to stay close to the front of the pack, but a driver can make more of a difference at Darlington because of its asymmetrical turns and other unique traits. Edwards has been fast everywhere so expect the same this weekend. Edwards finished fifth in this race a year ago, and seemed to take to the old track a lot faster than most young drivers typically do. There is no reason to believe that Edwards will not contend for his fourth win of the season.

In four career starts at Darlington, Edwards has one top five finish and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 15.0.

3. 18-Kyle Busch- 7-1 Odds

Following a week filled with censure, Kyle Busch heads to one of NASCAR’s toughest tracks. Just a quick recap, Busch squabbled with Steve Wallace and Dale Earnhardt, Jr., sons of two NASCAR legends. Now, Busch is arguably NASCAR’s most hated driver, not that he cares. He hopes for a more pleasant weekend in Darlington. Busch struggled the last time the Sprint Cup Series visited the 1.366-mile oval as he finished 37th. He seems to be in a zone in 2008, so expect much better results.

In three career starts at Darlington, Kyle Busch has one top ten finish and an average finish of 22.3.

4. 31-Jeff Burton- 25-1 Odds

Everything Kyle Busch is, Jeff Burton is the opposite. He is the collected veteran who steers clear of controversy. However, they are the top two drivers in the Sprint Cup Series standings. There was a time in the late 1990’s when Burton was a serious threat to win at Darlington. Even during his off years in the early 2000’s he produced respectable results at the historic venue. Now that Burton is back on his game, he is once again a favorite to win the Dodge Challenger 500 at Darlington. He finished tenth in this race a year ago.

In twenty-five career starts at Darlington, Burton has two wins, eight top five finishes, and fourteen top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.5.

5. 16-Greg Biffle, 15-1 Odds

The 2005 and 2006 winner of this event already has a small advantage coming into this weekend’s event. Greg Biffle, along with Jeff Gordon and Ryan Newman, participated in a tire test back in March at Darlington. Even if the testing was for tire data, the seat time has to help some. This track suits Biffle’s driving style, which is why he is a legitimate favorite every time the Sprint Cup Series visits the South Carolina-based oval. He finished fifteenth in last year’s event.

In seven career starts at Darlington, Biffle has two wins, two top five finishes, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 10.7.

6. 24-Jeff Gordon- 8-1 Odds

The defending winner of this event was relieved when he left Richmond with a ninth place showing. That is a sign that not all is well in the 24 camp. Usually, Jeff Gordon is one of the most competitive drivers, and ninth place does not cut it. He overcame adversity and secured a respectable finish, which is vital in the race to the Chase for the Championship. Gordon is currently 13th in the standings, which is the outside looking in. Darlington, like Martinsville and the road courses, has always been a track that Gordon excels at, no matter how bad the team is struggling at the time. Expect a solid performance from Gordon this weekend.

In twenty-seven career starts at Darlington, Gordon leads all active drivers with seven wins, fifteen top five finishes, and eighteen top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.8.

7. 48-Jimmie Johnson- 5-1 Odds

Like his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Gordon, Jimmie Johnson excels at Darlington. This team is reeling after a 30th place finish at Richmond last weekend. It will be interesting to see how Johnson and the 48 team respond to last week’s poor showing. Not only were they involved in the big wreck, but they were running mid-pack throughout the evening. Still, Johnson is like Gordon, he is a safe bet at Darlington. He finished third in this race a year ago.

In nine career starts at Darlington, Johnson has two wins, five top five finishes, and eight top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 6.8.

8. 20-Tony Stewart- 10-1 Odds

There are four tracks in which Tony Stewart has not conquered, and Darlington is one of them. Talk about motivation, Stewart must really be burning for a victory celebration at one of NASCAR’s most respected grounds. Historically, Stewart has not enjoyed that much success at Darlington, but he finished sixth in this race a year ago. Stewart is due for a win at ‘the Lady In Black’.

In fifteen career starts at Darlington, Stewart has two top five finishes, and eight top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.9.

9. 12-Ryan Newman- 30-1 Odds

Ryan Newman may arguably be the best driver not to win a race at Darlington. For some reason, he caught on to this track at a very early point in his career. In fact, he scored two top five finishes at Darlington in his rookie season, impressive indeed. Newman may not be an nascar odds-on favorite to win the race, but he is a smart bet. Additionally, he is the top running Dodge driver at the moment. He finished fourth in this race last year.

In nine career starts at Darlington, Newman has scored five top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 10.7.

10. 88-Dale Earnhardt, Jr.- 8-1 Odds

Unfortunately, the losing streak will likely continue to haunt Dale Earnhardt, Jr. after the Dodge Challenger 500. This has never been one of Earnhardt Jr.’s best tracks, though he has enjoyed some solid showings in the past. Hendrick Motorsports drivers tend to perform well at Darlington. In fact, a Hendrick Motorsports driver won four of the last six races at Darlington. Earnhardt, Jr. will face some stiff competition from the Joe Gibbs Racing boys as well as the Fords of Edwards and Biffle.

In thirteen career starts at Darlington, Earnhardt, Jr. has scored two top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 15.0.

Also, keep an eye on: Mark Martin (20-1 Odds), Matt Kenseth (15-1 Odds), Kevin Harvick (20-1 Odds), Clint Bowyer (20-1 Odds), and Kasey Kahne (30-1 Odds)

Great darkhorse picks- Bobby Labonte (100-1 Odds), Sterling Marlin (100-1 Odds), Elliott Sadler (100-1 Odds), Jamie McMurray (100-1 Odds), and David Gilliland (100-1 Odds)

Stay away from- all rookies, Kyle Petty, Johnny Sauter, and A.J. Allmendinger

Odds Maker’s Top Ten

1. 48-Jimmie Johnson- 5-1 Odds
2. 99-Carl Edwards- 6-1 Odds
3. 18-Kyle Busch- 7-1 Odds
4. 11-Denny Hamlin- 7-1 Odds
5. 88-Dale Earnhardt, Jr.- 8-1 Odds
6. 24-Jeff Gordon- 8-1 Odds
7. 20-Tony Stewart- 10-1 Odds
8. 16-Greg Biffle- 15-1 Odds
9. 17-Matt Kenseth- 15-1 Odds
10. 07-Clint Bowyer- 20-1 Odds