The Championship Fight Is Not Over Yet

Texas Motor Speedway -- 11/02/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Thursday Oct 30 2008 2:17pm

At Atlanta, Carl Edwards won his seventh race of the 2008 Sprint Cup campaign, while Jimmie Johnson finished in the runner-up position, therefore, extending his lead to 183 points in the championship nascar standings. While the deficit is not in every respect insurmountable, it will take a mechanical failure or two to stop Johnson from capturing his third consecutive championship.

While Edwards and his Roush Fenway teammate Greg Biffle, who is 185 point in arrears, endeavor what many consider the unachievable undertaking of catching Johnson with three races remaining, there are several drivers searching for their first win of the 2008 season. Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, and Kevin Harvick are the most noteworthy of names without a victory in 2008. Clearly, that is additional incentive for the trio of talented drivers at Texas Motor Speedway this weekend.

1. 17-Matt Kenseth: 8-1 nascar odds

Matt Kenseth led 128 laps at Atlanta on Sunday; however, he finished in the fourth position. Kenseth has led 100 or more laps in each of his last three victories, so it was a little surprising that he could not close the deal last Sunday. However, the Sprint Cup tour visits one of Atlanta’s sister tracks this weekend in Texas, and Kenseth knows how to circulate the 1.5-mile oval. Atlanta and Texas may appear virtually identical to the casual fan, but if you ask the drivers, the two tracks are entirely different from behind the wheel. Kenseth won at Texas in April of 2002, the year he won a single-season career-high five races. In April of this year, he finished in the ninth position. In 2007, Kenseth finished second in both races, recall the thrilling duel with Jimmie Johnson last fall.

In twelve career starts at Texas, Kenseth has one victory, five top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 10.2. He has eleven career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 13.9.

2. 99-Carl Edwards: 7-2 nascar odds

Carl Edwards juked Denny Hamlin on a restart with 16 laps to go to win his seventh race of the 2008 season. As exultant as he was to win the race, he was as equally disappointed with the fact that Jimmie Johnson rallied to finish in the second position. It has been difficult for Edwards and Biffle to gain any ground on the 48 team as they make so few mistakes. Edwards should contend for another victory, perhaps tying Kyle Busch for the series lead with eight. After all, Edwards, Tony Stewart, and Jimmie Johnson won the fall Atlanta race in each of the last three years, only to back it up with a victory lane celebration at Texas. Edwards won the race at Texas in April. In 2007, Edwards posted finishes of 12th and 26th.

In seven career starts at Texas, Edwards has two wins, two top five finishes, and two top ten finishes. He has a career finishing average of 15.7. He has 12 career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 11.6.

3. 48-Jimmie Johnson: 5-1 nascar odds

What can you say? Call it luck, skill, fortitude, whatever it may be, this team is practically indestructible right now. With a commanding 183-point lead in the Sprint Cup championship nascar standings, Jimmie Johnson refuses to put his Lowe’s Chevrolet on cruise control. They race to win, bottom line. Barring a mechanical failure or blown tire, it is Johnson’s championship to lose. Expect the defending champion of this race to contend for the win. He finished second at Texas in April. In 2007, Johnson posted a win along with a 38th place showing.

In ten career starts at Texas, Johnson has one win, five top five finishes, and eight top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 8.5. He has 29 career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 10.0.

4. 18-Kyle Busch: 7-1 nascar odds

Kyle Busch scored only his second top five finish of the Chase for the Championship last weekend at Atlanta, so could things be turning around for the driver that won eight races prior to the Chase? Busch did not have a race-winning car at Atlanta, but he was able to evade any bizarre mechanical mishaps that have plagued this team over the last two months, and finish in the fifth position. Busch was stout at Texas back in April, as he finished in the third position. In 2007, he placed finishes of 37th and fourth.

In seven career starts at Texas, Kyle Busch has three top five finishes, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 17.7. He has seven career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 17.2.

5. 16-Greg Biffle: 8-1 nascar odds

It was rather staggering that Greg Biffle struggled at Atlanta last weekend. He admitted that he and his crew chief struggled to make the proper adjustment to mend that handing issues. Still, Biffle posted a respectable tenth place finish, but lost more ground to Jimmie Johnson in the championship nascar standings. He now trails Johnson by 185 points heading into Texas. Biffle won at Texas in the spring of 2005, and is typically fast at the 1.5-mile oval, although his results indicate otherwise. He has four DNF’s, not all of his own making. He finished 39th at Texas back in April. In 2007, he posted finishes of sixth and 33rd.

In nine career starts at Texas, Biffle has one victory, one top five finish, and two top ten finishes. He has a finishing average of 26.1. He has thirteen career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 16.0.

6. 11-Denny Hamlin: 12-1 nascar odds

The melancholy on Denny Hamlin’s face following the Pep Boys Auto 500 at Atlanta last weekend was manifest. After leading 58 laps, Carl Edwards passed him on a restart with 16 laps to go. Hamlin eventually fell to third, which is where he finished. Hamlin has not won a race since Martinsville in April, and has endured to tough times in the Chase for the Championship, so a win would have been sweet for the group. They will try again on Sunday at Texas. Expect Hamlin to run near the front again. He finished fifth at Texas in April. In 2007, he posted finishes of ninth and 29th at Texas.

In six career starts at Texas, Hamlin has two top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 10.7. He has three career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 14.0.

7. 24-Jeff Gordon: 12-1 nascar odds

This is one of only two current tracks that Jeff Gordon has yet to conquer. The other is Homestead. Gordon has an opportunity at both tracks to break out of the winless column. However, Gordon tends to struggle at Texas. It has never been one of his stronger tracks. He finished 43rd back in April. In 2007, he posted finishes of fourth and seventh at Texas.

In fifteen career starts at Texas, Jeff Gordon has five top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 17.1. He has forty career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 11.9.

8. 6-David Ragan: 30-1 nascar odds

David Ragan appears to be on the threshold of winning his first Sprint Cup race. He has four top ten finishes in the last seven races. He is the non-Chaser to keep an eye on this weekend. He finished 13th at Texas back in April. In 2007, he posted dreadful finishes of 39th and 37th.

In three career starts at Texas, Ragan yet to finish in the top ten. He has an average finish of 29.7. He has ten career top ten finishes on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 29.7.

9. 29-Kevin Harvick: 30-1 nascar odds

Kevin Harvick is still searching for that first win of the season. If he does win in 2008, it will likely occur next weekend at Phoenix. He finished eleventh at Texas back in April. In 2007, Harvick posted finishes of tenth and 29th.

In eleven career starts at Texas, Harvick has two top five finishes, and four top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 13.4. He has seven career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 16.0.

10. 88-Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: 12-1 nascar odds

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. won his first Sprint Cup career race at Texas back in 2000. It seems like a lifetime ago. He finished 12th at Texas back in April. In 2007, he posted finishes of 36th and 14th.

In twelve career starts at Texas, Earnhardt, Jr. has one win, three top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.8. He has seven career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 16.7.

Also, keep an eye on Tony Stewart (12-1 nascar odds), Kurt Busch (30-1 nascar odds, Jamie McMurray (60-1 nascar odds), Mark Martin (40-1 nascar odds), and Jeff Burton (18-1 nascar odds)

Great darkhorse picks include A.J. Allmendinger (100-1 nascar odds), Brian Vickers (40-1 nascar odds), Casey Mears (100-1 nascar odds), Juan Pablo Montoya (100-1 nascar odds), and Martin Truex, Jr. (40-1 nascar odds)

Stay away from Joe Nemechek, Tony Raines, and Ken Schrader