Expect Chevrolet To Win the Daytona 500

Daytona International Speedway -- 02/17/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Wednesday Feb 13 2008 1:30pm

The stranglehold that Chevrolet has at the restrictor plate tracks this decade is astounding. Ever since 2001, a Chevrolet driver has won every race at Daytona and Talladega with the exception of four races. That is 24 out of 28 races, which is roughly 86 percent. The 2002 Daytona 500, Ward Burton won in a Dodge, the 2003 Pepsi 400 at Daytona, Greg Biffle won in a Ford, the 2005 UAW-Ford 500 at Talladega, Dale Jarrett won in a Ford, and the 2007 Pepsi 400 at Daytona, Jamie McMurray won in a Ford.

After watching the Budweiser Shootout last Saturday night, there is no reason to believe that the bow-tie dominance will fade. Three out of the top five drivers were driving cars with Chevrolet decals. However, a couple of Toyota drivers, Tony Stewart and Dave Blaney, made some noise throughout the evening. Still, Chevrolet, particularly Hendrick Motorsports, is the safe bet.

Chevrolet Impala: (-300 Odds) versus Toyota Camry, Dodge Charger, and Ford Fusion (+220 odds)

The list of Chevrolet drivers has downgraded from a year ago due to Joe Gibbs Racing unanticipated switch to Toyota. However, they still possess an unsurpassed lineup in Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton, Casey Mears, Mark Martin, Clint Bowyer, and Martin Truex, Jr.

When you examine the odds, heading up the list are none other than Earnhardt, Jr., Gordon, and Johnson.

Harvick is the defending champion, and Mark Martin came within inches of winning his first Great American Race. Jeff Burton is a skilled veteran and sometimes fortitude and intelligence prevail. Truex, Jr., Mears, and Bowyer are darkhorse picks and they drive for Chevrolet’s top three organizations.

Even though they have yet to win a Sprint Cup race, Toyota has the second best lineup for the Daytona 500 with Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Dave Blaney, J.J. Yeley, and Michael Waltrip. Many analysts will contend that Tony Stewart is overdue for a Daytona 500 trophy. He has captured the Pepsi 400 twice and the Bud Shootout three times, so performance is not an issue at the 2.5-mile oval.

Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin may not be the drivers that come to mind when considering an odds-on favorite, but it would not be that surprising if one of them was crossed the finish line in first position. Blaney has already displayed his restrictor plate expertise. Waltrip is a two-time winner of the Daytona 500, although both wins were for DEI and Chevrolet. Yeley and his Hall of Fame Racing team will benefit from vast resources provided by Joe Gibbs Racing.

Dodge Motorsports has underachieved at Daytona, with the exception of Ward Burton’s Daytona 500 victory in 2002. However, the lineup is respectable, and there are a few darkhorses in the mix. Their leading drivers include Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne, Elliott Sadler, Reed Sorenson, and Juan Pablo Montoya. Newman and Busch appear to be Dodge’s best bet, although Reed Sorenson finished fifth in the Bud Shootout.

Newman finished third in the 2006 Daytona 500, and Busch led 95 laps in the 2007 event. Montoya may surface as a driver to watch, but in reality, he is too raw when it comes to restrictor plate racing to vie for the win, and Kahne has never really been competitive at Daytona. Sadler enjoyed some impressive runs at Daytona with Yates Racing, but Gillett Evernham Motorsports as a whole has never put together a solid package for Daytona and Talladega.

Outside of Roush Fenway Racing, Ford’s chances seem rather bleak. Yates Racing was a force on the super speedways in the late 1980’s and 1990’s, and even the early 2000’s. Gone are the days when Dale Jarrett headed the list of favorites at Daytona. Now they will turn to David Gilliland and Travis Kvapil. Gilliland and Kvapil are talented drivers, but Yates Racing is simply not the same team they were several years ago, therefore, a Daytona 500 victory is improbable. However, nobody predicted Derrike Cope winning the 1990 Daytona 500. There is a chance that the Wood Brothers group may not even race on Sunday. It would be the first time since 1961 that a Wood Brothers prepared car was not in the race. Bill Elliott has a champion’s provision, but so do Dale Jarrett and Kurt Busch.

Robby Gordon suddenly jumped ship as he has collaborated with Gillett Evernham Motorsports and now drives Dodge Chargers.

Out of the Ford group, Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, and Jamie McMurray lead the way as favorites. Both McMurray and Biffle have victories at the famed oval.