Coke 600 Will Be Won By A Veteran

Lowe's Motor Speedway -- 05/25/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Thursday May 22 2008 9:18am

After an All-Star extravaganza last weekend won by fan favorite, not All-Star, Kasey Kahne, NASCAR is back to its normal format as the Sprint Cup stars race for them all-important championship points. Jimmie Johnson has owned Lowe’s Motor Speedway this decade, but Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards have owned the intermediate-style tracks in 2008.

1. 48-Jimmie Johnson: +450 Odds

From 2003 to 2005, it was the Jimmie Johnson Motor Speedway instead of the Lowe’s Motor Speedway. Including the 2003 All-Star win, Johnson amassed six wins in nine races during that three-year span. Since then, Johnson has only one win, the 2006 All-Star race, but he is always competitive when the Sprint Cup series visits the 1.5-mile speedway. In last year’s 600-mile marathon, Johnson led 83 laps and finished tenth. Casey Mears won last year’s race due to fuel mileage. Expect a veteran such as Johnson to win this year’s event.

In thirteen career (points-paying) starts at Charlotte, Johnson has five wins, which is a winning percentage of 38%. Additionally, he has eight top five finishes, eleven top ten finishes, and an average finish of 6.8.

2. 17-Matt Kenseth: +1200 Odds

Matt Kenseth’s first Sprint Cup victory was this race in 2000, when he was a mere rookie. Eight years later, Kenseth is a respected veteran, and still a favorite to win this race. The 2008 season has been a struggle for Kenseth, but after finishing third in the All-Star race last weekend, momentum could be building for the 17 team. When this team is on their game, tracks such as Charlotte are their bread and butter. Last year, Kenseth led 50 laps and finished twelfth.

In seventeen career starts at Charlotte, Kenseth has one victory, five top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 15.8.

3. 18-Kyle Busch: +520 Odds

Kyle Busch is a favorite based on the way he ran away from the field before his engine lost steam in the second segment of the All-Star race. However, the All-Star race and the Coca Cola 600 are two different animals that share one home. The warmer temperatures will affect the track. Still, Busch is a heavy favorite for this race. He will have a fast car; but can he outlast the veterans such as Johnson, Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, and Jeff BurtonΔ In last year’s Coca Cola 600, Busch finished 30th after leading four laps.

In seven career starts at Charlotte, Kyle Busch has one top five finish and two top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 25.9.

4. 99-Carl Edwards: +480 Odds

Carl Edwards is the driver to beat every time the Sprint Cup series visits a 1.5-mile or 2-mile speedway. All three of his victories have occurred at tracks of those lengths. Edwards seemed to struggle with the handling last week in the All-Star race, but that could have been an experimental setup. If they go back to basics, his forty-two opponents may have reason to worry. In last year’s 600-mile long-winded event, Edwards finished 15th after leading one lap.

In seven career starts at Charlotte, Edwards has three top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 7.3.

5. 88-Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: +740 Odds

A Coca Cola 600 win in his backyard would thrill his multitude of fans to no end. Last week, Earnhardt, Jr. enjoyed a solid run, but finished eighth due to flawed pit strategy. The Lowe’s Motor Speedway has been a solid track for Earnhardt, Jr., though he has yet to win a championship points-paying race at the 1.5-mile facility. He should be solid again this weekend. Hendrick Motorsports has won seven of the last ten races at Charlotte, so those nascar odds bode well for NASCAR’s most popular driver. Earnhardt, Jr. is arguably the top running Hendrick driver. Last year, while driving for DEI, Earnhardt, Jr. finished eighth and led one lap.

In seventeen career starts at Charlotte, Earnhardt, Jr. has four top five finishes, and eight top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 16.9.

6. 16-Greg Biffle: +1200 Odds

Greg Biffle nearly won the All-Star event last year, and consistently had the fastest car after Kyle Busch’s night ended prematurely. Unfortunately, his handling issues surfaced at the worst possible time as he settled for a second place finish. Still, Biffle flexed some muscle last week as well as the week before at Darlington when he was leading when his engine expired. This team is on top of their game as far as performance is concerned. They just need to keep the car and its parts in one piece. Last year, Biffle finished 43rd after an accident ended his night.

In ten career starts at Charlotte, Biffle has one top five finish and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 21.0.

7. 20-Tony Stewart: +740 Odds

Judging by the way Tony Stewart has been able to quietly work his way to top five finishes, he could snap his winless streak this weekend. Stewart is overdue for a win, and a race such as the Coca Cola 600 suits his style and ability. Stewart is aggressive, but he is a smart driver. Last year, he finished sixth after leading 55 laps.

In eighteen career starts at Charlotte, Stewart has one victory, six top five finishes, and eleven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.9.

8. 11-Denny Hamlin: +740 Odds

Denny Hamlin should enjoy another solid showing at Lowe’s Motor Speedway. He has yet to show as much strength on the 1.5-miles as his teammate Kyle Busch, but he has been fast. Last year, Hamlin finished ninth after leading one lap.

In five career starts at Charlotte, Hamlin has three top ten finishes, and an average finish of 14.8.

9. 31-Jeff Burton: +2100 Odds

I mentioned that a veteran will likely win this year’s Coca Cola 600, and Jeff Burton fits the bill. He is arguably the smartest driver in NASCAR, which is why he has completed every lap thus far in 2008. He is a two-time winner of this event, both wins occurring early in his career, so he could be a serious threat in those final 100 miles.

In twenty-eight career starts at Charlotte, Burton has two wins, seven top five finishes, and thirteen top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.5.

10. 24-Jeff Gordon: +760 Odds

Last week, Jeff Gordon’s vulnerability on the 1.5-mile tracks was evident. This team likely investigated the setback, and should improve in the Coca Cola 600. Like Burton, Gordon is a smart driver, so he could be a factor in the final 100 miles. Like Kenseth, Gordon’s first win (1994) occurred in this race. Last year, Gordon finished 41st after an accident ended his race.

In thirty career starts at Charlotte, Gordon has four wins, eleven top five finishes, and thirteen top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 16.9.

Also, keep an eye on: Clint Bowyer (+1800), Kasey Kahne (+1500), Kevin Harvick (+2100), Ryan Newman (+2800), and Mark Martin (+2300)

Great darkhorse picks include: Sam Hornish, Jr., A.J. Allmendinger, David Ragan, Dave Blaney, and Brian Vickers

Stay away from: Jon Wood, J.J. Yeley, Michael McDowell, Michael Waltrip, and Kyle Petty

Odds Maker’s Top Ten

1. Jimmie Johnson: +450 Odds
2. Carl Edwards: +480 Odds
3. Kyle Busch: +520 Odds
4. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: +740 Odds
5. Denny Hamlin: +740 Odds
6. Tony Stewart: +740 Odds
7. Jeff Gordon: +760 Odds
8. Greg Biffle: +1200 Odds
9. Matt Kenseth: +1200 Odds
10. Kasey Kahne: +1500 Odds