Past Champions Overdue For A Win

Chicagoland Speedway -- 07/12/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Friday Jul 11 2008 1:11pm

1. 17-Matt Kenseth: 7-1 nascar odds

When Matt Kenseth is on his game, you can expect him to contend for wins at tracks such as Chicagoland. Throughout his career, the 1.5-mile and 2-mile tracks have favored the 2003 champion. He is one of the hottest drivers in the garage right now as he has scored seven top ten finishes in the last eight races. His recent surge has gone unnoticed, as the media seems focused on when Tony Stewart or Jeff Gordon will get their first wins. In this race a year ago, Kenseth finished second after qualifying tenth.

In seven career starts at Chicagoland, Kenseth has two top five finishes, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 10.1. He has eleven wins total on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 13.8.

2. 20-Tony Stewart: 8-1 nascar odds

With all of the hullabaloo surrounding his recent announcement that he will depart the Joe Gibbs Racing organization to pursue an ownership role at Haas CNC (Stewart Haas) Racing, Tony Stewart still has unfinished business in the 20 car. He has performed at a high level all season long, and he should score that first win of the 2008 season sooner rather than later. He will contend for another win at Chicagoland, but his first win could likely occur at Indianapolis or Watkins Glen. Stewart is the defending champion of this race.

In seven career starts at Chicagoland, Stewart has two wins (2004 and 2007), five top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.0. He has eighteen total wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 12.5.

3. 18-Kyle Busch: 6-1 nascar odds

It would be too conventional selecting Kyle Busch as the predicted winner. However, how can you neglect a driver with six wins in eighteen startsΔ Busch won at Atlanta earlier in the season, and like Atlanta, Chicagoland is a 1.5-mile facility. The championship leader heads into the second half of the season with a steam full of momentum after his thrilling win at Daytona last weekend. In this race last year, Kyle Busch finished thirteenth after qualifying sixth. He was driving for Hendrick Motorsports at the time.

In three career starts at Chicagoland, Kyle Busch has one top five finish, and one top ten finish. He has an average finish of 10.0. He has six career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 17.2.

4. 99-Carl Edwards: 7-1 nascar odds

All three of Carl Edwards’ victories in 2008 have occurred at tracks 1.5-miles or 2-miles in length. It is safe to say that Carl Edwards will be a solid bet for Saturday night’s showdown under the lights. Edwards is coming off a disappointing second place finish at Daytona, a race he felt he could have won. There is no reason to believe that he will not be one of the contenders to capture the LifeLock 400. In this race last year, Edwards finished third after starting the race in 25th.

In three career starts at Chicagoland, Edwards has one top five finish, and one top ten finish. He has an average finish of 20.7. He has nine career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 11.9.

5. 48-Jimmie Johnson: 7-1 nascar odds

Chicagoland is one of the select few tracks that Jimmie Johnson has yet to conquer. A year ago, Johnson had arguably the dominant car, but a cut tire ended any chance at his first win in the Windy City. Johnson is not the dominant driver he was a year ago, but he is consistent, and will be a strong contender on Saturday evening. In this race a year ago, Johnson finished 37th after qualifying eighth. He led 82 laps.

In six career starts at Chicagoland, Johnson has four top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 9.2. He has 26 career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 10.3.

6. 16-Greg Biffle: 10-1 nascar odds

Talk about a driver who could use a little racing luck. Greg Biffle is one of NASCAR’s top performers in 2008, but the results hardly indicate that fact. Like Kenseth, Biffle is stout on the intermediate-style tracks, especially when he is at his best. Look for Biffle to bounce back from his disappointing finish at Daytona last week where he finished 43rd. In this race a year ago, Biffle finished in the eleventh position after qualifying 33rd. In fact, Biffle has finished 11th in the last three races at Chicagoland.

In five career starts at Chicagoland, Biffle has never scored a top ten finish, but he has an average finish of 14.6. He has eleven career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 16.8.

7. 88-Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: 8-1 nascar odds

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. won the last race at an intermediate style track at Michigan last month. He will be looking duplicate that feat. At Michigan, he had a fast car, but fuel mileage that helped him win his first race in over two years. Earnhardt, Jr. won this race in 2005 and is typically solid at the 1.5-mile venue. In this race a year ago, Earnhardt, Jr. had a top ten run going until he lost his power steering. As a result, he finished in the 19th position after qualifying fifth.

In seven career starts at Chicagoland, Earnhardt, Jr. has one victory, two top five finishes, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 15.1. He has seven career win at intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 16.7.

8. 9-Kasey Kahne: 15-1 nascar odds

This is Kasey Kahne’s bread and butter. Throughout his Sprint Cup career, the majority of his success as come at tracks 1.5-miles in length. He won twice at Charlotte in May, which is a night race at a 1.5-mile facility. Kahne is hit or miss. If he is a hit, he is a clever bet, but you never know which Kasey Kahne is going to show up. I believe the hit will show up this weekend. In this race a year ago, Kahne finished 32nd in what was a forgettable weekend for the 9 team.

In four career starts at Chicagoland, Kahne has yet to post a top ten finish. He has an average finish of 33.0. He has eight career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 18.6.

9. 24-Jeff Gordon: 15-1 nascar odds

Jeff Gordon is coming off a disappointing finish at Daytona. He was running second when the green-white-checker began, ended up finishing 30th. He looks to rebound at the track he won at two years in controversial fashion. Recall Gordon knocking Matt Kenseth out of the way for the victory. In this race last year, Gordon finished ninth after qualifying eleventh.

In seven career starts at Chicagoland, Gordon has one victory, four top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 10.0. He has 40 career wins on intermediate tracks, and an average finish of 11.9.

10. 83-Brian Vickers: 15-1 nascar odds

Usually, Brian Vickers is a dark horse pick. Following his third place showing at Michigan last month, Vickers proved that he could perform at a high level. If you recall, he was among the leaders at Charlotte when his wheel fell off, forcing him to the garage. Vickers could be a clever pick this weekend at Chicagoland. Vickers failed to qualify for this event in 2007.

In three career starts at Chicagoland, Vickers has one top five finish, and one top ten finish. He has an average finish of 10.3.

Also keep an eye on Denny Hamlin (15-1 nascar odds), Jeff Burton (30-1 nascar odds), Clint Bowyer (30-1 nascar odds), Kevin Harvick (30-1 nascar odds), and Mark Martin (40-1 nascar odds)

Great dark horse picks include Dave Blaney (100-1 nascar odds), David Ragan (30-1 nascar odds), Elliott Sadler (50-1 nascar odds), Sam Hornish Jr (100-1 nascar odds), and Casey Mears (75-1 nascar odds)

Stay away from Scott Riggs, Jason Leffler, J.J. Yeley, Michael McDowell, and Bill Elliott

Odds Makers Top Ten

1. Kyle Busch 6-1 nascar odds
2. Carl Edwards 7-1 nascar odds
3. Jimmie Johnson 7-1 nascar odds
4. Matt Kenseth 7-1 nascar odds
5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 8-1 nascar odds
6. Tony Stewart 8-1 nascar odds
7. Greg Biffle 10-1 nascar odds
8. Jeff Gordon 15-1 nascar odds
9. Denny Hamlin 15-1 nascar odds
10. Kasey Kahne and Brian Vickers 15-1 nascar odds