Chase For The Championship Spot On The Line At Richmond

Richmond International Raceway -- 09/06/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Friday Sep 5 2008 8:34am

The 2008 NASCAR Sprint Cup regular season reaches its conclusion this weekend at Richmond. The race to the Chase for the Championship is tight, as Clint Bowyer, David Ragan, and Kasey Kahne vie for the twelfth and final spot.

Clint Bowyer has a 17-point advantage over David Ragan, and Kasey Kahne trails Bowyer by 48 points. Denny Hamlin and Jeff Gordon are not home free either. Hamlin has 93 points separating himself from Ragan, and Gordon is 102 points up on Ragan. Obviously, Hamlin and Gordon have more room for error than Bowyer, but they must evade disaster.

1. 29-Kevin Harvick: 12-1 nascar odds

Kevin Harvick is on a mission as he has scored six top ten finishes in the last seven races. Outside of Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, and Kyle Busch, no other driver is possesses the momentum that Harvick has fostered. His recent surge is overshadowed by the race to the Chase for the Championship and the Kyle Busch/Carl Edwards tiff. Richmond is traditionally one of Harvick’s best tracks, as he won this race two years ago. In his last two races at Richmond, Harvick has posted finishes of seventh and eighth.

In fifteen career starts at Richmond, Harvick has one win, four top ten finishes, and nine top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.8.

2. 48-Jimmie Johnson: 6-1 nascar odds

Jimmie Johnson joined Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards as a favorite to conquer the 2008 Sprint Cup. The two-time defending champion made a statement last weekend at California with his overwhelming victory. Johnson has the momentum, and he is the defending winner of this race. He would love to put an exclamation point on the regular season with another convincing win at Richmond. However, prior to 2007, Richmond was one of Johnson’s weaker tracks. In his last two trips to Richmond, Johnson has scored finishes of first and 30th.

In thirteen career starts at Richmond, Johnson has two wins, three top five finishes, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 18.8.

3. 18-Kyle Busch: 5-1 nascar odds

Kyle Busch is currently enduring a three-race winless skid. The last time the Sprint Cup Series visited Richmond, Busch engaged in a fierce battle with Dale Earnhardt, Jr. throughout the closing laps. The battle ended when Busch got into the side of Earnhardt, Jr., sending him into the wall. Neither Busch nor Earnhardt, Jr. won that race, but they were the headlines. Busch hopes for different headlines this weekend, as he is stringently racing to win and earn those bonus points towards the championship. In his last two races at Richmond, Busch has recorded finishes of 20th and second.

In seven career starts at Richmond, Kyle Busch has six top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 5.6.

4. 11-Denny Hamlin: 6-1 nascar odds

This is a homecoming of sorts for the Chesterfield, Virginia native. Denny Hamlin led 380 of 400 laps at the 0.75-mile venue back in May, and was on his way to his second victory of the season when he cut a tire. Hamlin feels as if Richmond owes him one, and it just may. Hamlin is one of the nascar odds-on favorites this weekend, and barring any adversity, he should clinch a spot in the Chase for the Championship. In his last two races at Richmond, Hamlin has posted finishes of sixth and 24th.

In five career starts at Richmond, Hamlin has two top five finishes, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 10.0.

5. 07-Clint Bowyer: 20-1 nascar odds

This is perhaps the biggest race of Clint Bowyer’s Sprint Cup career. After a strong start to the season, Bowyer encountered a summer swoon, and now he is fighting for the final spot in the top twelve. Bowyer won at Richmond back in May, but he arguably had the fourth or fifth best car. If this team can match that from a performance standpoint, Bowyer will appear in the Chase for the Championship for the second consecutive season. With David Ragan and Kasey Kahne breathing down his neck, there is no margin for error for Bowyer and the 07 group. In his last two races at Richmond, Bowyer has scored finishes of twelfth and first.

In five career starts at Richmond, Bowyer has one win, one top five finish, and three top ten finishes.

6. 88-Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: 12-1 nascar odds

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. had the car to beat in May after Denny Hamlin’s tire began to deflate. Nevertheless, the assertive Kyle Busch muscled his way to the inside of Earnhardt, Jr. and the rest is history. Earnhardt, Jr. would love to have that race back, and could have another opportunity to battle for the victory this weekend. Richmond is historically one of Earnhardt, Jr’s stronger tracks. You have to remember, in May, Earnhardt, Jr. was performing at a much higher level than he is now. In his last to trips to Richmond, Earnhardt, Jr. has posted finishes of 30th and 15th.

In seventeen career starts at Richmond, Earnhardt, Jr. has three wins, seven top five finishes, and nine top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.5.

7. 99-Carl Edwards: 6-1 nascar odds

It is difficult to believe that Carl Edwards has yet to score a single top five finish at Richmond. Clearly, there is a good chance that stat will change for the better this weekend. Edwards will be a threat to win, even though Richmond has not been one of his most favorable tracks since joining the Sprint Cup ranks. In this race a year ago, Edwards was leading when his engine expired on lap 182. He has the ability to pull out a win at the .075-mile oval, but this could be the week that another driver without the last name Edwards, Busch, or Johnson that pulls into victory lane. In his last two races at Richmond, Edwards has recorded finishes of 42nd and seventh.

In eight career starts at Richmond, Edwards has three top ten finishes, and an average finish of 18.9.

8. 6-David Ragan: 30-1 nascar odds

Even if David Ragan does not qualify for the Chase for the Championship, he has been the most pleasant surprise of the 2008 Sprint Cup campaign. There were very few outside the Roush Fenway camp that believed Ragan had what it takes to land a spot in the top twelve. He finished third in this race a year, and a repeat of that performance could catapult him into the top twelve. A win this weekend would further augment his nascar odds to enter championship chase. However, I think the nod goes to Bowyer. Ragan has a bright future in this sport. In his last two trips to Richmond, Ragan has posted finishes of 3rd and 17th.

In three career starts at Richmond, Ragan has one top five finish, and an average finish of 13.3.

9. 9-Kasey Kahne: 15-1 nascar odds

Like Bowyer and Ragan, Kasey Kahne is going to put it all on the line and have a strong weekend. All three drivers are capable of finishing in the top five this weekend. Kahne’s first career Sprint Cup victory was at Richmond in 2005. In 2004, Kahne’s former teammate Jeremy Mayfield was in a similar situation. He was the long-shot. Nevertheless, Mayfield won the race by leading the most laps, and raced his way into the top ten. Anything less than a win, or top five finish would spoil Kahne’s chances of making the Chase for the Championship. Kahne needs a flawless race if he intends to race for the championship. In his last two races at Richmond, Kahne has recorded finishes of eighth and tenth.

In nine career starts at Richmond, Kahne has one victory, two top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 17.3.

10. 20-Tony Stewart: 10-1 nascar odds

Tony Stewart has flown under the radar for much of the season, which is a first. Stewart is still searching for that elusive first win in 2008. Unfortunately, Stewart has not performed up to his normal standards over the last couple of weeks, and his qualifying results have not been up to par. Richmond is a track in which track position is crucial. Nevertheless, few drivers in the garage are as hungry for a victory as Stewart is. In his last two races at Richmond, Stewart has posted finishes of second and fourth.

In nineteen career starts at Richmond, Stewart has three wins, seven top five finishes, and thirteen top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 10.9. Like Kasey Kahne in 2005, Stewart won his first Sprint Cup race at Richmond in 1999.

Also, keep an eye on Jeff Gordon (15-1 nascar odds), Matt Kenseth (15-1 nascar odds), Greg Biffle (12-1 nascar odds), Jeff Burton (30-1 nascar odds), and Mark Martin (30-1 nascar odds)

Great darkhorse picks include Joey Logano (50-1 nascar odds), Elliott Sadler (75-1 nascar odds), Jamie McMurray (100-1 nascar odds), Bobby Labonte (100-1 nascar odds), and David Reutimann (100-1 nascar odds)

Stay away from Michael McDowell, Kyle Petty, Joe Nemechek, Sterling Marlin, and Tony Raines