The Chase Continues For Edwards And Biffle

Phoenix International Raceway -- 11/09/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Thursday Nov 6 2008 2:16pm

Carl Edwards cut Jimmie Johnson’s lead in the Sprint Cup championship standings to 106 with his compelling victory at Texas last weekend. His teammate Greg Biffle stayed alive in the championship hunt as well with a fifth place finish. He is 143 points behind Johnson. Meanwhile, Johnson struggled throughout most of the afternoon, as he could only muster up a fifteenth place finish.

As the Sprint Cup Series visits the 1-mile venue in Arizona this weekend for the Checker O’Reilly 500k, it remains to be seen if Johnson’s performance at Texas was a sign of things to come. Will another lackluster performance allow Edwards and Biffle an opportunity to pounce, or was last week just a minor bump in the road to a third consecutive title?

Expect the usual suspects such as Biffle, Edwards, Johnson, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick to run near the front at Phoenix. However, do not discount several non-Chasers who are performing well, such as Jamie McMurray, David Reutimann, David Ragan, and Martin Truex, Jr.

1. 16-Greg Biffle: 12-1 odds

If you think back to the last race on a flat 1-mile oval, it was at Loudon, New Hampshire in September. Greg Biffle won that race in dramatic fashion by passing Jimmie Johnson with twelve laps to go. Of course, Phoenix does not provide the exact same configuration as New Hampshire; however, they are comparable as far as setting up the chassis. He finished second to Jimmie Johnson in this race a year ago. Biffle is on a mission, as he looks to close in on not only Johnson, but also his teammate Carl Edwards. If Biffle is within 100 points heading into Homestead next week, do not count him out. From 2004 to 2006, he closed out the season in victory lane. In April, Biffle scored a ninth place finish at Phoenix. In 2007, Biffle placed finishes of 17th and second.

In nine career starts at Phoenix, Biffle has two top five finishes, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 16.4.

2. 99-Carl Edwards: 5-1 odds

While Jimmie Johnson appears to be on his way to a third consecutive Sprint Cup championship, Carl Edwards is working on his own three-peat. After consecutive victories at Atlanta and Texas, Edwards hopes to triple his pleasure this weekend at Phoenix. Edwards has yet to win at Phoenix, but he has enjoyed some strong showings at the 1-mile facility. While Edwards has been solid practically every week in 2008, only one of his eight wins have occurred on a track less than a 1.5-miles in length. Edwards would love nothing more than to diversify his 2008 portfolio. In April, Edwards scored a fourth place finish at Phoenix. In 2007, Edwards scored finishes of 11th and 42nd.

In eight career starts at Phoenix, Edwards has three top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 14.5.

3. 18-Kyle Busch: 7-1 odds

With the Sprint Cup championship far out of reach, Kyle Busch is pushing for wins in these final two races of the 2008 season. Heading into Phoenix, he has scored consecutive top ten finishes, which is the first time he has accomplished that feat since the Chase for the Championship began two months ago. Busch is a solid bet on a track such as Phoenix, as long as his equipment stays in tact. He won this race as a rookie in 2005 by passing Greg Biffle late in the race. He finished in the tenth position at Phoenix back in April. In 2007, he placed finishes of eighth and seventh.

In seven career starts at Phoenix, Kyle Busch has one victory, one top five finish, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 15.4.

4. 11-Denny Hamlin: 9-1 odds

Denny Hamlin is another driver looking to close out the 2008 season on a positive note. It has been a roller coaster ride of a season for Hamlin, who nearly won at Atlanta two weeks ago. He is in a race of his own trying to squeeze into the top ten in the Sprint Cup standings. He is currently three points behind his teammate Kyle Busch for the final table in NASCAR’s Award ceremony in New York in December. Hamlin is consistently a threat to win on the shorter flat tracks, so expect him to perform well at Phoenix on Sunday. In April, he posted a third place finish. In 2007, Hamlin finished third and 35th at Phoenix.

In six career starts at Phoenix, Hamlin has three top five finishes, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.0. He earned his first career Sprint Cup pole for this race in 2005.

5. 48-Jimmie Johnson: 9-2 odds

It was an atypical off day for Jimmie Johnson and the 48 crew at Texas last weekend. Even when Johnson struggles with the handling, he still manages to salvage a strong finish due to brilliant strategy. At Texas, the 48 team had no tricks up their sleeves. Johnson heads to Phoenix where he is the defending winner of this race. A repeat would almost secure his third consecutive Sprint Cup championship. In addition to his win last fall, he won this race in the spring of this year. In the spring of 2007, he posted a fourth place finish.

In ten career starts at Phoenix, Johnson has two wins, five top five finishes, and eight top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 6.0.

6. 24-Jeff Gordon: 15-1 odds

The countdown is down to two. Only two races remaining as Jeff Gordon continues his quest for his first victory of the 2008 season. There is a plethora of Gordon detractors that would love nothing more than to see Wonder Boy himself with a doughnut in the win column for the first time since 1993. However, he is still Jeff Gordon, and he can win on any given Sunday. Gordon won the spring race at Phoenix in 2007, so he knows how to pace the 1-mile oval. Furthermore, he has to be as motivated as ever. Last fall, he posted a tenth place finish. In April of this year, he posted a 13th place finish.

In eighteen career starts at Phoenix, Jeff Gordon has one win, eight top five finishes, and 15 top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 8.5.

7. 20-Tony Stewart: 10-1 odds

Traditionally, Phoenix is a favorable track for the two-time Sprint Cup champion. However, Tony Stewart’s performance has fallen off ever since he won at Talladega last month. It appears as if he if focusing more on housing his own operation for 2009, especially now that he is out of the championship picture. Stewart won at Phoenix in 1999 when both he and crew chief Greg Zipadelli were rookies, so it is a special place for the 20 team. In April, Stewart finished in the 14th position. In 2007, he posted finishes of second and fourth at Phoenix.

In thirteen career starts at Phoenix, Stewart has one victory, six top five finishes, and eight top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 9.8.

8. 26-Jamie McMurray: 50-1 odds

Once again, expect Jamie McMurray to be the top running non-Chaser on Sunday. This team has stepped it up over the last two months or so. McMurray is closing out the 2008 season with a steam full of momentum, and a win is not that far-fetched. In April, McMurray finished in the seventeenth position. In 2007, McMurray posted finishes of 23rd in both races held at Phoenix.

McMurray is still searching for his first top ten finish at Phoenix. His best finish at the 1.-mile facility is 12th in 2003. He has an average finish of 23.6.

9. 17-Matt Kenseth: 15-1 odds

Matt Kenseth is in the same boat as Jeff Gordon. The season is slipping away without a victory. Kenseth won this race in 2002, and led the most laps in the race a year ago. He finished 38th at Phoenix back in April. In 2007, he recorded finishes of fifth and third.

In twelve career starts at Phoenix, Kenseth has one victory, five top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 18.8.

10. 29-Kevin Harvick: 12-1 odds

Kevin Harvick won both races at Phoenix in 2006, so it is clearly one of his better tracks. It would be a great time and place to score his first victory of the 2008 season. Like Jeff Gordon and Matt Kenseth, Harvick is in danger of a winless season. He finished 19th at Phoenix back in April. In 2007, scored finishes of tenth and sixth.

In eleven career starts at Phoenix, Harvick has two wins, three top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 13.7.

Also, keep an eye on Jeff Burton (18-1 odds), Mark Martin (20-1 odds), Clint Bowyer (18-1 odds), Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (12-1 odds), and Martin Truex, Jr. (25-1 odds)

Great darkhorse picks include David Reutimann (100-1 odds), Juan Pablo Montoya (100-1 odds), Casey Mears (100-1 odds), A.J. Allmendinger (100-1 odds), and Brian Vickers (30-1 odds)

Stay away from Kyle Petty, Tony Raines, and Joe Nemechek

Odds Maker’s Top Ten

1. Jimmie Johnson 9-2 odds
2. Carl Edwards 5-1 odds
3. Kyle Busch 7-1 odds
4. Denny Hamlin 9-1 odds
5. Tony Stewart 10-1 odds
6. Greg Biffle 12-1 odds
7. Kevin Harvick 12-1 odds
8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 12-1 odds
9. Jeff Gordon 15-1 odds
10. Matt Kenseth 15-1 odds