Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart Hoping To Break Winless Drought

Watkins Glen International -- 08/10/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Thursday Aug 7 2008 2:14pm

For the second time in 2008, the Sprint Cup Series heads to a road course. In June, Kyle Busch won the race at Infineon Raceway in Sonoma, California. Busch will be one of the favorites again this weekend at Watkins Glen. NASCAR’s top two road course drivers, Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart, eye a perfect opportunity to win their first race of the 2008 season. The so-called road ringers, such as Boris Said, Ron Fellows, P.J. Jones, and Marcos Ambrose will give the Sprint Cup regulars a run for their money.

1. 24-Jeff Gordon: 9-2 nascar odds

Last year, Jeff Gordon seemed well on his way to another road course victory when his car got away from him with just a handful of laps remaining. Tony Stewart went on to win the race, but even he recognized that Gordon had the car to beat. Throughout his Sprint Cup career, Jeff Gordon is the driver most fans mention when discussing the sport’s top road course racers. However, he has not won at Watkins Glen since 2001. Obviously, Gordon is well overdue for a victory. Last year, he finished ninth after dominating the race.

In fifteen career starts at Watkins Glen, Jeff Gordon has four wins, six top five finishes, and eight top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.4. He has nine career wins on road course tracks, and an average finish of 10.8.

2. 20-Tony Stewart: 9-2 nascar odds

Like Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart’s first victory of the 2008 season is likely to occur this weekend at Watkins Glen. It did not take very long for Stewart to make his mark on the road courses after joining the Sprint Cup ranks in 1999. His first road course victory occurred at Infineon in 2001, just his fifth road course start. Ever since then, he has rivaled Gordon as NASCAR’s road course ace. Stewart is the defending champion of this race.

In nine career starts at Watkins Glen, Stewart has four career wins, five top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 6.1. He has six career wins on road courses, and an average finish of 8.2.

3. 18-Kyle Busch: 8-1 nascar odds

Kyle Busch is not quite at the same level as Stewart and Gordon when it comes to road racing, but his win at Infineon in June showed that he has the potential. Not only did he win at Infineon, but also he won the Nationwide Series race on the road course in Mexico City in April. Clearly, Busch is emerging as a perennial threat on the road course tracks. He will be one of the favorites this weekend at Watkins Glen. In this race a year ago, Busch finished seventh after starting the race in the eighth position.

In three career starts at Watkins Glen, Kyle Busch has two top ten finishes, and an average finish of 16.3. He has one career victory on road courses, and an average finish of 15.6.

4. 7-Robby Gordon: 10-1 nascar odds

Since sweeping the two road course races back in 2003, Robby Gordon has not posted a win, but even with an under funded team, ‘the other’ Gordon is always a safe bet at tracks with sweeping right hand turns. One issue with Robby Gordon on road courses lately seems to be track position. Somehow, despite having a fast car, he gets lost in the track position game, and ultimately finds himself in precarious positions. As long as Gordon can keep his nose clean, he will be one of the frontrunners. It will be difficult for him to outmuscle Jeff Gordon or Tony Stewart. In this race a year ago, Robby Gordon finished fifth after starting the race in 29th.

In nine career starts at Watkins Glen, Robby Gordon has one win, seven top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 8.8. He has two career wins on road courses, and an average finish of 16.1.

5. 99-Carl Edwards: 15-1 nascar odds

Carl Edwards had one of the faster cars at Infineon back in June, but a pit road penalty set him back. He was able to pick his way back into the top ten. Infineon and Watkins Glen are two different racetracks, but a good road racer is a good road racer. If you are fast at Infineon, it is likely that you will enjoy a similar performance at Watkins Glen. Edwards is not the driver people will pick to win, but he should enjoy a strong outing. In this race a year ago, Edwards finished eighth, but he was running second on the final lap before he ran off-course.

In three career starts at Watkins Glen, Edwards has one top five finish, and two top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 10.7. He has a career average finish of 14.7 on all road courses.

6. 42-Juan Pablo Montoya: 8-1 nascar odds

Who can forget the memorable confrontation between Juan Pablo Montoya and Kevin Harvick last year at Watkins GlenΔ All apologies to Tony Stewart, but the Montoya-Harvick fracas highlighted the weekend, if not the year. Prior to the incident, Montoya and Harvick were running in the top ten. If Montoya can play nice with Harvick, he may score another top ten finish, or even top five finish. Montoya’s only Sprint Cup win, and Nationwide Series win, occurred on a road course. In this race a year ago, Montoya finished 39th after starting the race in 18th.

Montoya only has one career start at Watkins Glen. He has competed in three road course races since joining the Sprint Cup Series. He has one win (at Infineon), one top five finish, and two top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 15.3.

7. 29-Kevin Harvick: 15-1 nascar odds

Kevin Harvick’s first and only Sprint Cup victory on a road course was at Watkins Glen two years ago. He has materialized as one of the sport’s better road course drivers. When he won at Watkins Glen, he had to outrun Tony Stewart, which is no easy task at any track. The victory showcased Harvick’s diverse skills behind the wheel. Few drivers have that type of diversity. In this race a year ago, Harvick was running near the top five before he was tangle up with Juan Pablo Montoya. He ended up with a 36th place finish.

In seven career starts at Watkins Glen, Harvick has one win, two top five finishes, and four top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.0. He has one career win on road courses, and an average finish of 14.7.

8. 12-Ryan Newman: 40-1 nascar odds

It is difficult to reason why Ryan Newman’s nascar odds are so low compared to other drivers considering his past performances on road courses. As a rookie in 2002, Newman finished second at Watkins Glen with no power steering. He may not contend for many wins on the road courses, but he is always in or near the top ten. Newman should enjoy another solid outing at Watkins Glen. In this race a year ago, Newman finished thirteenth after starting the race in the fifteenth position.

In six career starts at Watkins Glen, Newman has one top five finish, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 14.7. He has three career top five finishes on road courses, and an average finish of 11.8.

9. 21-Marcos Ambrose: 15-1 nascar odds

Marcos Ambrose will make his third career Sprint Cup start on Sunday. He is an accomplished road racer, dating back to his off-road racing days in Australia. Ambrose displayed tons of potential at Infineon back in June while driving for the Wood Brothers. He should give the storied team another positive showing at Watkins Glen. A win by Ambrose and the Wood Brothers would be one of the more popular wins in recent memory.

Ambrose will make his first career start at Watkins Glen on Sunday. At Infineon in June, Ambrose qualified seventh, but finished 42nd due to a mechanical failure.

10. 48-Jimmie Johnson: 15-1 nascar odds

There are few accomplishments in NASCAR that elude Jimmie Johnson, and a road course victory is one of them. Johnson is not one of the better road course racers, but he is always in the top ten. While he may not contend for the victory, it should be another top ten performance, possibly top five, from Johnson and the 48 group. In this race a year ago, Johnson finished third after starting the race in the seventh position.

In six career starts at Watkins Glen, Johnson has three top five finishes, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 14.2. He has four career top five finishes at road courses, and an average finish of 16.9.

Also, keep an eye on Boris Said (30-1 nascar odds), Ron Fellows (25-1 nascar odds), Denny Hamlin (15-1 nascar odds), Kurt Busch (20-1 nascar odds), and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (35-1 nascar odds)

Great darkhorse picks include P.J. Jones, Patrick Carpentier (30-1 nascar odds), David Gilliland (100-1 nascar odds), A.J. Allmendinger (100-1 nascar odds), and Jamie McMurray (30-1 nascar odds)

Stay away from Joe Nemechek, Travis Kvapil, Scott Riggs, Michael McDowell, and David Reutimann

Odds Maker’s Top Ten

1. Jeff Gordon 9-2 nascar odds
2. Tony Stewart 9-2 nascar odds
3. Kyle Busch 8-1 nascar odds
4. Juan Pablo Montoya 8-1 nascar odds
5. Robby Gordon 10-1 nascar odds
6. Carl Edwards 15-1 nascar odds
7. Jimmie Johnson 15-1 nascar odds
8. Denny Hamlin 15-1 nascar odds
9. Kevin Harvick 15-1 nascar odds
10. Marcos Ambrose 15-1 nascar odds