Another Earnhardt And Busch Battle?

Dover International Speedway -- 06/01/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Friday May 30 2008 2:27pm

The NASCAR Sprint Cup series heads into its summer stretch this weekend at Dover, a.k.a. the Monster Mile, for the Best Buy 400. About a month ago at Richmond, Kyle Busch and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. engaged in a fierce battle in the closing laps, and we all know how that ended. Both Earnhardt, Jr. and Busch are still on top of their game, so an Earnhardt vs. Busch part II could be on the horizon.

1. 88-Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: 8-1 Odds

It is difficult to believe that it is June and Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch, and Matt Kenseth are all searching for their first win of the 2008 season. Out of the above-mentioned drivers, Earnhardt, Jr. is performing the best heading into Dover. Earnhardt, Jr. has enjoyed some success in this track. He won the fall race in 2001, and typically runs near the front at the 1-mile venue. Last year, he encountered tire issues in both races at Dover. In this race a year ago, he finished 22nd.

In fourteen career starts at Dover, Earnhardt, Jr. has one victory, four top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 15.8. On intermediate tracks, Earnhardt, Jr. has an average finish of 16.7.

2. 18-Kyle Busch: 5-1 Odds

Kyle Busch’s latest display of narcissism occurred last weekend when he flipped off four-time champion Jeff Gordon, and then approached him following the race during an interview. Despite his ridiculous antics, he is still NASCAR’s top driver in 2008, and will again be a factor at Dover. Busch has always favored the Monster Mile. As a rookie in 2005, he finished fifth and second respectively. In this race a year ago, Busch finished 17th.

In six career starts at Dover, Kyle Busch has four top five finishes, and four top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.8. On intermediate tracks, Busch has an average finish of 17.1.

3. 99-Carl Edwards: 6-1 Odds

They call him Concrete Carl for good reason. Last year, Carl Edwards won to Nationwide races at Nashville, one Nationwide race at Bristol and Dover, and a Sprint Cup race at Bristol and Dover. Clearly, he favors the concrete, and he is not that bad on asphalt either. Edwards struggled at tracks like Dover early in his career, but as he has gained experience, he has become one of the best drivers at the smaller intermediate tracks such as Dover.

In seven career starts at Dover, Edwards has one win, three top five finishes, and four top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 9.1. On intermediate tracks, Edwards has an average finish of 12.0.

4. 11-Denny Hamlin: 8-1 Odds

Following two rough weekends in Charlotte, Denny Hamlin looks to get back on track at the Monster Mile. Shorter speedways such as Dover typically favor Hamlin. With Kyle Busch’s weekly antics, Tony Stewart’s contract situation, and the emergence of Joey Logano, Hamlin has flown under the radar for most of the season. However, he is fourth in the standings, and is a solid favorite for this weekend’s race at Dover. In this race a year ago, Hamlin finished fourth.

In four career starts at Dover, Hamlin has one top five finish, and two top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 15.5. On intermediate tracks, Hamlin has an average finish of 13.1.

5. 16-Greg Biffle: 10-1 Odds

Greg Biffle has vastly improved his performance from this time a year ago. Now owning two poles in 2008, he is on the brink of winning his first race since Kansas last October. Additionally, Biffle is looking to distance himself from the 13th position in the Sprint Cup standings. Biffle won this race three years ago in dominating fashion, and is usually a frontrunner when the series visits the 1-mile speedway. In this race a year ago, Biffle finished sixth, and that was in an off-year.

In eleven career starts at Dover, Biffle has one victory, three top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.9. On intermediate tracks, Biffle has an average finish of 16.9.

6. 1-Martin Truex, Jr.: 20-1 Odds

It is difficult to believe that it has been a year since Martin Truex, Jr. broke into victory lane for the first time in his Sprint Cup career. The victory at Dover sparked a summer hot streak, which catapulted Truex, Jr. right into Chase for the Championship contention. In 2008, Truex, Jr. has been hit or miss, so a repeat of last year would suit him and the DEI operation just fine.

In four career starts at Dover, Truex, Jr. has one win, and two top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 10.5. On intermediate tracks, Truex, Jr. has an average finish of 17.4.

7. 48-Jimmie Johnson: 8-1 Odds

Jimmie Johnson encountered a rare engine failure last weekend at Lowe’s Motor Speedway. The 48 team usually rebounds from those types of issues rather well, so expect this team to be a factor on Sunday. As a rookie in 2002, Johnson swept both races at Dover. In this race a year ago, Johnson was running in second position when he pitted due to a deflating tire late in the race. He finished in the 15th position.

In twelve career starts at Dover, Johnson has three wins, four top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 11.9. On intermediate tracks, Johnson has an average finish of 10.4.

8. 07-Clint Bowyer: 30-1 Odds

Following a string of seven consecutive top ten finishes, including a win at Richmond, Clint Bowyer has encountered a minor slump after mediocre finishes at Darlington and Charlotte. This team looks to return to race-winning contention at Dover, and Bowyer has flexed some muscle on the Monster Mile in the past. He won a Nationwide Series race at Dover in 2006. In the race a year ago, Bowyer finished eighth.

In four career starts at Dover, Bowyer has two top ten finishes, and an average finish of 11.2. On intermediate tracks, Bowyer has an average finish of 16.7.

9. 24-Jeff Gordon: 12-1 Odds

Jeff Gordon finished fourth at Charlotte in a 20th place car, which is a good thing and a bad thing. This team has faded ever since their championship run in 2007. Nevertheless, Dover has always been a solid track for Jeff Gordon. His struggles have been at the 1.5-mile tracks, not the 1-mile tracks. He should be okay this weekend; however, there are much better picks. In this race a year ago, Gordon finished ninth.

In thirty career starts at Dover, Gordon has four wins, his last coming in 2001. He has thirteen top five finishes, eighteen top ten finishes, and an average finish of 12.3. On intermediate tracks, Gordon has an average finish of 11.9.

10. 20-Tony Stewart: 8-1 Odds

As the old cliché goes, if he it wasn’t for bad luck, he’d have no luck at all. Tony Stewart would probably prefer to have no luck. He was cruising to his first victory of the season when his tire deflated. Heading into Dover, Stewart looks to turn his luck around. A year ago, Stewart and Kurt Busch engaged in a bumper war. He finished in the 40th position.

In eighteen career starts at Dover, Stewart has two wins, nine top five finishes, and twelve top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 10.6. On intermediate tracks, Stewart has an average finish of 12.3.

Also, keep an eye on: Ryan Newman (30-1), Matt Kenseth (10-1), Mark Martin (30-1), Jeff Burton (25-1), and Kevin Harvick (30-1)

Darkhorse picks include: David Ragan (30-1), Bobby Labonte (100-1), Elliott Sadler (60-1), David Reutimann (100-1), and Brian Vickers (100-1)

Stay away from: Michael Waltrip, Kyle Petty, and Scott Riggs

Odds Maker’s Top Ten

1. Kyle Busch 5-1 Odds
2. Carl Edwards 6-1 Odds
3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 8-1 Odds
4. Denny Hamlin 8-1 Odds
5. Tony Stewart 8-1 Odds
6. Jimmie Johnson 8-1 Odds
7. Greg Biffle 10-1 Odds
8. Matt Kenseth 10-1 Odds
9. Jeff Gordon 12-1 Odds
10. Martin Truex, Jr, 20-1 Odds