Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards Among the Favorites at Fontana

California Speedway -- 02/24/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Wednesday Feb 20 2008 1:16pm

1. Jimmie Johnson- Odds +480

Jimmie Johnson looks to rebound from a frustrating week at Daytona. After winning the pole for the 50th running of the Daytona 500, Johnson began a weeklong downward spiral as he struggled in the Gatorade Duel race before he limped to a 27th place finish in the big race. Johnson’s track history at California Speedway is promising. The last time the NASCAR Sprint Cup series visited the Fontana-based track last September, Johnson held off Carl Edwards for the victory. His success at California coupled with Chad Knaus’ knack for setting up the Car of Tomorrow should make Johnson the choice pick to win the Auto Club 500.

In ten starts at California Speedway, Johnson has posted two wins, six top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. His career average finish at the track is 6.8.

2. Jeff Gordon- Odds +575

Jeff Gordon christened the California Speedway by winning its very first Cup race in April of 1997. Since then, he has posted two more wins at the 2-mile facility. Gordon is traditionally fast at tracks like California and Michigan; however, these brands of tracks are generally rough on engines, which can create a high attrition rate. Considering that the Auto Club 500 is a 500-mile affair, all eyes will be on Hendrick Motorsports engines and their durability. At Daytona, several Hendrick Motorsports teams had issues with their engines. Chances are, Gordon and his Hendrick posse will be just fine. Gordon is a safe pick, and typically rebounds well from poor finishes.

In fifteen starts at California Speedway, Gordon has posted three wins, seven top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. His career average finish is 11.8.

3. Matt Kenseth- Odds +600

Matt Kenseth will endeavor to win his third consecutive race Auto Club 500. Tracks such as California, Las Vegas, and Michigan have suited Kenseth well over his career. It would not be surprising if his stranglehold on the 2-mile venue continues. Nevertheless, Kenseth’s previous victories at California were in the expired template, not in the Car of Tomorrow, or Today, whatever they are calling it now. It will be interesting to see how different of a race the COT will provide. Expect the same drivers that have ran well at California in the past to be the ones contending for the win

In twelve career starts at California, Kenseth has posted two wins, four top five finishes, eight top ten finishes, and has an average finish of 10.3.

4. Carl Edwards- Odds +600

Carl Edwards has never won a Sprint Cup race at California, but he has come awfully close. He finished second last September to Jimmie Johnson, and like his Roush Fenway Racing teammate Matt Kenseth, the 1.5-mile and 2-mile venues suit his driving style. Four of his seven career wins have come at tracks that are either 1.5-mile or 2-miles in length. Barring any unforeseen misfortune, Edwards will contend for the Auto Club 500 win.

In seven career starts at California, Edwards has posted five top ten finishes, six top ten finishes, and has a career average finish of 7.6.

5. Tony Stewart- Odds + 650

Once again, Tony Stewart came oh so close to winning his first Daytona 500. Now that the Super Bowl of NASCAR has come and gone, Stewart will focus on chasing his third Sprint Cup title. Stewart usually peaks in the second half of the season, but he is always strong at tracks that demand an abundance of speed. The Auto Club 500 will provide a true indication as to how reliable Toyota motors are.

In thirteen career starts at California, Stewart has yet to win a Sprint Cup race. However, he has posted three top five finishes, six top ten finishes, and has a career average finish of 16.7

6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.- Odds + 700

Obviously, his countless fans preferred a win, but a top ten is not a bad way to start the season. We all know that Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is superb on the superspeedways, but it will be interesting to see how his new team can perform on non-restrictor plate tracks. Earnhardt, Jr. may not be the choice pick at California, but he will benefit from Hendrick Motorsports equipment. With DEI last year, Earnhardt, Jr performed rather well at tracks such as California, so imagine what he can do with Hendrick horsepower under his hood.

In twelve career starts at California, Earnhardt, Jr. has yet to post a Sprint Cup win. He has recorded three top five finishes, four top ten finishes, and has a career average finish of 19.8.

7. Denny Hamlin- Odds +1050

In four career starts at California, Denny Hamlin has posted one top ten finish. He has posted an average finish of 12.0.

8. Kyle Busch- Odds +1050

Kyle Busch won his very first Sprint Cup race at California in September of 2005.

In six career starts at California, Busch has a win, two top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. His career average finish is 11.1.

9. Kurt Busch- Odds +1100

Kurt Busch won this race in 2004 while driving for Roush Fenway Racing.

In eleven career starts at California, Busch has one victory, three top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has a career average finish of 11.3.

10. Greg Biffle- Odds- +1200

Greg Biffle won this race in 2005.

In nine career starts at California, Biffle has posted one win, two top five finishes, and two top ten finishes. His career average finish is 20.1.

Darkhorse picks- Ryan Newman (+1700), Kasey Kahne (+3000), Casey Mears (+2500), Clint Bowyer (+2500)

My top ten

1. Carl Edwards, 2. Jimmie Johnson, 3. Matt Kenseth, 4. Jeff Gordon, 5. Dale Earnhardt Jr, 6. Kurt Busch, 7. Ryan Newman, 8. Kyle Busch, 9. Tony Stewart, 10. Martin Truex Jr