Jeff Gordon Is Overdue For A Win

Talladega Superspeedway -- 10/05/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Friday Oct 3 2008 12:24pm

It often referred to as the Wild Card. The Talladega Super Speedway hosts the fourth race in the Chase for the Championship, and for many, it is all about survival. This is an opportunity for some drivers to gain ground on the top three drivers. Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. own the majority of wins at the 2.66-mile super speedway this decade, but Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, and Ryan Newman have recently displayed restrictor plate racing prowess.

1. 24-Jeff Gordon: 6-1 nascar odds

The last time Jeff Gordon encountered a winless season was his rookie season in 1993. The longest standing active streak of winning seasons is in jeopardy. Nevertheless, the 2008 Sprint Cup season has Talladega and Martinsville remaining, and regardless of how Gordon is performing at other tracks, he is always a threat at NASCAR’s longest and shortest tracks. Gordon is due for a win, and this could be the weekend in which NASCAR’s most accomplished driver finally breaks through. In his last two races at Talladega, Gordon has posted finishes of first and 19th. He won this race a year ago with a late-race pass on Ryan Newman.

In 31 career starts at Talladega, Jeff Gordon has six wins, thirteen top five finishes, and sixteen top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 15.0.

2. 88-Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: 6-1 nascar odds

Most of the cheers this weekend will belong to Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Junior Nation would love nothing more than to see their favorite driver record his second victory of the season this weekend at the capital of Junior Nation, a.k.a. Talladega. Earnhardt, Jr. has an impressive record on the super speedways; however, he has not won a race at Talladega since 2004. Needless to say, Earnhardt, Jr. is itching to get back into victory lane at the track his father once dominated. In his last two races at Talladega, Earnhardt, Jr. has finishes of 40th and tenth.

In seventeen career starts at Talladega, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has five wins, seven top five finishes, and ten top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 14.1.

3. 18-Kyle Busch: 6-1 nascar odds

Kyle Busch’s late-season collapse continued at Kansas, as mechanical issues reared its ugly head again. Nevertheless, Busch won the spring race at Talladega, and has materialized as one of the sport’s top drivers on the restrictor plate tracks. In addition to his win at Talladega, Busch won the July race at Daytona. He is certainly a threat to score his third consecutive super speedway victory. In his last two starts at Talladega, Kyle Busch has scored finishes of 36th and first.

In seven career starts at Talladega, Kyle Busch has one win, one top five finish, and one top ten finish. He has an average finish of 27.3.

4. 20-Tony Stewart: 6-1 nascar odds

It is difficult to believe that Tony Stewart has never won a Sprint Cup race at Talladega. He is one of the sport’s best super speedway drivers, and has been for a while. Stewart has come close to winning at NASCAR’s largest track, and it is simply a matter of time before he finally conquers the colossal venue. He has two wins at Daytona, which also requires a restrictor place, but Talladega is a different animal. In his last two trips to Talladega, Stewart has recorded finishes of eighth and 38th.

In nineteen career starts at Talladega, Stewart has eight top five finishes, and eleven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 13.9, which is better than both Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt, Jr, who have combined for 11 wins at Talladega.

5. 12-Ryan Newman: 20-1 nascar odds

Ryan Newman is becoming one of NASCAR’s better drivers on tracks that require the use of restrictor plates. Following his win at Daytona, fans and other competitors point to Newman when discussing a driver that is a threat to win at the super speedways. Newman would love nothing more than to win one more race for Penske Racing before he joins Stewart Haas Racing in 2009. Each week, a non-Chaser steps up and runs with the championship chasers. This week, expect that driver to be Ryan Newman. In his last two starts at Talladega, Newman has finishes of fifth and eighth.

In thirteen career starts at Talladega, Ryan Newman has three top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 17.8.

6. 48-Jimmie Johnson: 8-1 nascar odds

NASCAR’s championship leader has an opportunity to open up a little bit of an advantage over Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle. Johnson typically performs better than the Roush Fenway Racing duo at Talladega. If he can stay out of trouble and avoid the inevitable ‘big one’, this could be the weekend in which Johnson takes full command of the championship lead. He won the spring race at Talladega in 2006. In his last two starts at Talladega, Johnson has posted finishes of second and thirteenth.

In thirteen career starts at Talladega, Johnson has one victory, four top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 17.5.

7. 11-Denny Hamlin: 12-1 nascar odds

Judging by his last two races at Talladega, Denny Hamlin is probably looking forward to this weekend’s race. In last year’s race, Hamlin led the most laps en route to his fourth place finish. Hamlin has performed well below expectations since the Chase for the Championship began, so he could use another solid super speedway performance. In his last two races at Talladega, Hamlin has scored finishes of fourth and third. He continues to improve on tracks that mandate the use of a restrictor plate.

In six career starts at Talladega, Hamlin has two top five finishes, and two top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 14.2.

8. 29-Kevin Harvick: 20-1 nascar odds

For nine consecutive races, Kevin Harvick has finished in the top ten; however, he has yet to contend for many wins. He is been consistent, not necessarily fast. Harvick won the 2007 Daytona 500, so he knows the ways of drafting. Like, Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon, Harvick is overdue for a victory, and considering Richard Childress Racing’s history at Talladega, he could be the one the breaks his winless streak. In his last two races at Talladega, Harvick has scored finishes of 20th and 24th.

In fifteen career starts at Talladega, Harvick has three top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 14.3.

9. 99-Carl Edwards: 20-1 nascar odds

It is no secret that restrictor plate racing is not Roush Fenway Racing’s strong suit. However, Carl Edwards is coming of a second place finish at Daytona, which was the most recent super speedway event. In fact, he may have won that race if not for a last lap caution. Several analysts feel as if Edwards may lost some ground this weekend, but if you watched last weekend’s race, it is apparent that he is a man on a mission. In his last two races at Talladega, Edwards has posted finishes of 14th and 40th.

In eight career starts at Talladega, Edwards has one top five finish, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 24.0.

10. 07-Clint Bowyer: 30-1 nascar odds

Clint Bowyer’s first three trips to Talladega were very forgettable, as he failed to post a finish better than 35th. He has shown some improvement at the restrictor plate venues. He scored a top ten finish at Daytona in July. In his last two races at Talladega, Bowyer has earned finishes of 11th and ninth.

In five career starts at Talladega, Bowyer has one top ten finish, and an average finish of 26.0.

Also, keep an eye on Jeff Burton, Martin Truex, Jr., Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth, and Greg Biffle

Great darkhorse picks include Michael Waltrip, David Reutimann, Jamie McMurray, Elliott Sadler, and Juan Pablo Montoya

Stay away from Sam Hornish, Jr, Patrick Carpentier, and Jon Wood

Odds Maker’s Top Ten

1. Jeff Gordon 6-1 nascar odds
2. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 6-1 nascar odds
3. Tony Stewart 6-1 nascar odds
4. Kyle Busch 6-1 nascar odds
5. Jimmie Johnson 8-1 nascar odds
6. Denny Hamlin 12-1 nascar odds
7. Kurt Busch 18-1 nascar odds
8. Carl Edwards 20-1 nascar odds
9. Kevin Harvick 20-1 nascar odds
10. Ryan Newman 20-1 nascar odds