Dale Earnhardt, Jr Will Break His Winless Skid

Talladega Superspeedway -- 04/27/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Thursday Apr 24 2008 2:11pm

After a two-week hiatus, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series returns to the track this weekend at Talladega Super Speedway, which happens to be the longest track on the circuit. As usual, expect Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Hendrick Motorsports to dominate the weekend. This time, however, Earnhardt and Hendrick are united.

1. (88) Dale Earnhardt, Jr.- 4-1 Odds to win the Aaron’s 499

It seems as if every week, we hear the dreaded question, ‘when is Dale Earnhardt, Jr. going to winΔ’ Hopefully, he can pull it off this weekend at Talladega so the questions will vanish along with any doubt than he can still win at this level. There is no better, or more logical, place for Earnhardt, Jr. to win considering his record of accomplishments at the 2.66-mile super speedway. From 2001 to 2004, Earnhardt, Jr. and the DEI organization owned Talladega Superspeedway. In fact, all five of his victories occurred during that period. Add an Earnhardt to an already potent Hendrick Motorsports restrictor plate package; you have a recipe for a victory.

In sixteen career starts at Talladega, Earnhardt, Jr. has amassed five wins, seven top five finishes, and nine top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 14.3.

2. (20) Tony Stewart- 6-1 Odds

It is difficult to believe that Tony Stewart has yet to win a race at Talladega. However, he has pushed his comrade, Earnhardt, Jr., to victory on several occasions in the early 2000’s. As he searches for that first win at the enormous facility, he will face questions regarding his future with Joe Gibbs Racing. By now, all NASCAR fans are aware of the rumors that Stewart is leaving the Gibbs outfit to drive for and partially own Haas CNC Racing. It is a perplexing rumor, but it holds water. Meanwhile, Stewart will contend for another victory at Talladega. Perhaps Earhardt, Jr. returns the favor and pushes Stewart to victory.

In eighteen career starts at Talladega, Stewart has never won, but he has posted eight top five finishes, and eleven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.6.

3. (18) Kyle Busch- 7-1) Odds

Kyle Busch and his two teammates, Denny Hamlin and Tony Stewart, dominated most of the Daytona 500. Even though Daytona and Talladega are very different venues, a good restrictor plate driver is a good restrictor driver, and Kyle Busch is that. He is coming off his third consecutive victory in the Nationwide Series, and could tie Sam Ard for the record this weekend with four. Expect Busch to contend for two wins this weekend, that is if he can avoid the inevitable big wreck.

In six career starts at Talladega, Kyle Busch has yet to post a single top ten finish. He has an average finish of 31.0. Those stats are incredibly deceiving. He typically runs near the top five or ten. He is overdue for a solid finish at Talladega.

4. (24) Jeff Gordon- 5-1 Odds

Jeff Gordon is the current King of restrictor plate racing, a title once owned by Dale Earnhardt, Sr. Since 2004, Gordon has won four out of eight races at the 2.66-mile facility. Usually, Gordon dominates en route to his victories, but last fall, he cruised along in 35th place until the race reached its closing laps. Suddenly, with much finesse, he was able to march his way to the front with perfect timing. Very few drivers are capable of that. Gordon had a forgettable race at Daytona in February, which means that Steve Letarte and company have done their homework. Like Earnhardt, Jr., Gordon is searching for that first win of 2008, and Talladega is one of his best tracks.

In thirty career starts at Talladega, Gordon has posted six wins, thirteen top five finishes, and sixteen top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 14.9.

5. (12) Ryan Newman- 25-1 Odds

One restrictor plate victory does not deem you a phenomenal super speedway driver. If that were the case, then Ward Burton would still have a Sprint Cup ride. However, Newman’s win at Daytona was not as surprising as everyone tried to suggest. If you recall, he was the leader that Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson had to pass last fall at Talladega for the win. He nearly won the 2006 Daytona 500 as well. Newman may not repeat his winning performance at Talladega, but he will be a factor in Sunday’s race.

In twelve career starts at Talladega, Newman has three top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 18.6.

6. (2) Kurt Busch- 20-1 Odds

Do not be surprised if you see Kurt Busch’s photo on a milk carton in the near future. He has seemingly vanished from the NASCAR radar since his second place finish at Daytona three months ago. It has been an irksome start to the 2008 season for a team that many fans and analysts thought would contend for the championship. Busch is solid at the super speedways, so expect him to linger towards the front pack along with his teammate Newman. This team is in dire need of a top ten finish.

In fourteen career starts at Talladega, Kurt Busch has scored six top ten finishes, and eleven top ten finishes. His average finish is 10.0. Perhaps Busch is the best restrictor plate driver without a win at Talladega and Daytona.

7. (11) Denny Hamlin- 12-1 Odds

Denny Hamlin flexed some muscle at Daytona when he led 32 laps, but faded after he received damage to his car. He proved that he could perform at a high level on the super speedways, recall his Budweiser Shootout win in 2006. Expect Hamlin to enjoy another solid performance this weekend.

In four career starts at Talladega, Hamlin has posted one top ten finish, and has an average finish of 17.0.

8. (48) Jimmie Johnson- 6-1 Odds

Jimmie Johnson surprisingly struggled at Daytona in February. Nevertheless, this team has vastly improved over the past month or so. Johnson will contend for his second victory at Talladega and of the 2008 season. He won his only race here the spring of 2006.

In twelve career starts at Talladega, Johnson has one win, four top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. His average finish is 17.8.

9. (31) Jeff Burton- 25-1 Odds

Jeff Burton has one super speedway victory, which occurred at Daytona in July of 2000 while driving for Jack Roush. Richard Childress Racing ruled Talladega when Dale Earnhardt was behind the wheel, but they have yet to win there since Earnhardt’s final win in 2000. With the way he has performed in 2008, Burton provides Childress his best opportunity to return to victory lane at Talladega.

In twenty-eight career starts at Talladega, Burton has scored two top five finishes, and ten top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 19.4.

10. (99) Carl Edwards- 20-1 Odds

Carl Edwards has yet to win a restrictor plate event, but like Kurt and Kyle Busch, as well as Denny Hamlin, he is on the threshold. He already owns three trophies in 2008, and looks to add a fourth to his mantle this weekend.

In seven career starts at Talladega, Edwards has scored one top five finish, and three top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 21.7.

Also, keep an eye on- Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex, Jr., Clint Bowyer, Casey Mears, and Greg Biffle

Great darkhorse picks include- Ken Schrader, Jamie McMurray, Michael Waltrip, David Gilliland, and Travis Kvapil

Stay away from- Kyle Petty, J.J. Yeley, and Dario Franchitti

Projected Top Ten by Odds

1. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (4-1)
2. Jeff Gordon (5-1)
3. Jimmie Johnson (6-1)
4. Tony Stewart (6-1)
5. Kyle Busch (7-1)
6. Denny Hamlin (12-1)
7. Carl Edwards (20-1)
8. Kevin Harvick (20-1)
9. Clint Bowyer (20-1)
10. Kurt Busch (20-1)