Kenseth, Roush Fenway Favored At Michigan

Michigan International Speedway -- 08/17/08

Author: Jeremy Dunn

Published: Friday Aug 15 2008 2:38pm

For the second time in 2008, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series will visit the 2-mile speedway in Brooklyn, Michigan. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. won the first event in June by virtue of fuel mileage. Once again, he is expected to surface as one of the favorites, along with his Hendrick Motorsports teammate.

Roush Fenway Racing has enjoyed the most success at Michigan International Speedway throughout the decade. Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, and Kurt Busch have all rewarded Jack Roush with a combined six victories at Michigan since 2000.

1. 17-Matt Kenseth: 7-1 nascar odds

If Matt Kenseth is going to score his first victory of the season anytime in the near future, it is going to be within the next month. He has won at all of the upcoming four tracks on the NASCAR Sprint Cup agenda. Tracks such as Michigan and California are this team’s bread and butter. Kenseth won this race two years ago, giving him some momentum as he headed into the Chase for the Championship. Kenseth is on the Chase for the Championship bubble this year, and a win would really give this team a much-needed shot in the arm. In his last two starts at Michigan, Kenseth has finishes of fourth and third.

In seventeen career starts at Michigan, Kenseth has two wins, eight top five finishes, and twelve top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 9.3. He has eleven career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 13.9.

2. 18-Kyle Busch: 6-1 nascar odds

Eight wins in twenty-two starts…not a bad season thus far. Kyle Busch won the race at Chicagoland, which many consider a junior version of Michigan. Well, Busch has practically won at all variety of venues in 2008. As he chases Jeff Gordon and Richard Petty’s modern day single season record of 13 wins, while chasing a championship, Busch will not let up on the competition. Backed by Joe Gibbs Racing and Toyota horsepower, this type of track could mean another morose day for the competition. Busch has finished thirteenth in each of his last two visits to Michigan.

In seven career starts at Michigan, Kyle Busch has two top ten finishes, and an average finish of 19.6. He has seven career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 17.2.

3. 99-Carl Edwards: 6-1 nascar odds

If it is not going to be Kyle Busch dominating, it is likely going to be Carl Edwards. Edwards’ fantastic season is often overshadowed by Busch’s supremacy, but if anybody can outperform the 18 team in the final segment of the season, Edwards and the 99 team could be the group that does it. Tracks such as Michigan suit Edwards and the entire Roush Fenway Racing operation. Edwards won the June race at Michigan in 2007. In his last two trips to Brooklyn, Michigan, Edwards has recorded two seventh place finishes. Edwards made his first career Sprint Cup start in this race four years ago.

In eight career starts at Michigan, Edwards has one victory, four top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 7.2. He has ten career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 11.9.

4. 48-Jimmie Johnson: 6-1 nascar odds

Jimmie Johnson has hit his peak in 2008 at the perfect time. He is exceptionally fast week in and week out, and he is Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards’ biggest threat as we inch closer to the commencing of the 2008 Chase for the Championship. Johnson and the 48 team have yet to win at the 2-mile facility, which is rather surprising considering Johnson’s record of accomplishments on intermediate speedways throughout his career. This could be the weekend that Johnson finally pops the champagne bottle in the Michigan International Speedway winner’s circle. In his last two trips to Michigan, Johnson has posted finishes of third and sixth.

In thirteen career starts at Michigan, Johnson has two top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 14.2. He has 27 career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 10.2.

5. 88-Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: 10-1 nascar odds

Ever since Dale Earnhardt, Jr.’s popular win at Michigan in June, he only has one other top ten finish to his name. Unfortunately, for Junior Nation, the win did not breed more wins. Still, Earnhardt, Jr. is one of the favorites heading into this weekend’s event. Expect this team to contend of another victory at Michigan. However, they have their work cut out for them if they are going to outrun Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson. In his last two races at Michigan, Earnhardt, Jr. has a twelfth place finish and a victory.

In seventeen career starts at Michigan, Earnhardt, Jr. has one victory, three top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has seven career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 16.6.

6. 16-Greg Biffle: 12-1 nascar odds

Other than Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, and Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle is the driver that is overdue for a victory in 2008. He won this race in 2004, and the June race in 2005, and this type of track is right up his alley. He was a contender in the June race until a pit road penalty under green flag pit stops ended any hopes of a victory. Any time the Sprint Cup Series visit Michigan, Biffle is a solid bet. In his last two visits to Michigan, he has scored finishes of 19th and 20th.

In eleven career starts at Michigan, Biffle has two wins, four top five finishes, and six top ten finishes. He has eleven career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 16.6.

7. 20-Tony Stewart: 10-1 nascar odds

Tony Stewart finally revealed his second driver on his 2009 Stewart Haas Racing roster. Fellow Hoosier, Ryan Newman, will drive the second Stewart Haas Racing entry. On the track, expect Stewart to continue his solid season. He has two consecutive second place finishes heading into Michigan, which is traditionally one of his stronger tracks. Stewart is trying to distance himself from the thirteenth place slot in the championship standings. In his last two races at Michigan, Stewart has recorded finishes of tenth and fifth.

In nineteen career starts at Michigan, Stewart has one win, nine top five finishes, and thirteen top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 12.5. He has eighteen career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 12.4.

8. 83-Brian Vickers: 20-1 nascar odds

After winning the Coors Light Pole award at Michigan, his first of the season, Brian Vickers is justifiable a solid bet for this weekend’s race. In June, Vickers consistently had one of the faster cars, and led a bulk of the race, but pit strategy did not work to his favor in the closing laps. Do not be staggered if Vickers becomes the net first-time winner in 2008. His only Sprint Cup victory occurred at Talladega in October of 2006. In his last two races at Michigan, Vickers has posted finishes of eighth and fourth.

In nine career starts at Michigan, Vickers has one top five finish, and four top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 18.4. He has a career average finish of 20.3 on intermediate speedways.

9. 8-Mark Martin: 30-1 nascar odds

The last time Mark Martin piloted the DEI Chevrolet at Pocono, he led the most laps. Martin has a rich history at Michigan, so expect him to be a factor on Sunday. In his last two races at Michigan, Martin has scored finishes of 42nd and 25th; however, those finishes can be deceiving. Martin had a top ten car in each of those races.

In forty-five career starts at Michigan, Martin has four victories, sixteen top five finishes, and twenty-seven top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 13.3. He has eighteen career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 12.7.

10. 9-Kasey Kahne: 8-1 nascar odds

Kasey Kahne is one of the drivers on the top end of the Chase for the Championship bubble. He has a small cushion back to thirteenth place in the standings, but one finish in the sub-thirties could change that. Kahne’s best opportunities to distance himself from the Chase cutoff are at Michigan and California. In his last two races at Michigan, Kahne has posted finishes of 31st and second.

In nine career starts at Michigan, Kahne has one win, five top five finishes, and five top ten finishes. He has an average finish of 13.8. He has eight career wins on intermediate speedways, and an average finish of 18.3.

Also, keep an eye on Jeff Gordon (15-1 nascar odds), Jeff Burton (30-1 nascar odds), Kevin Harvick (30-1 nascar odds), Martin Truex, Jr. (30-1 nascar odds), and Denny Hamlin (15-1 nascar odds)

Great darkhorse picks include David Ragan (25-1 nascar odds), Elliott Sadler (60-1 nascar odds), Travis Kvapil (100-1 nascar odds), A.J. Allmendinger (100-1 nascar odds), and Dave Blaney (100-1 nascar odds)

Stay away from Brad Coleman, Tony Raines, and Regan Smith

Odds Maker’s Top Ten

1. Kyle Busch 6-1 nascar odds
2. Carl Edwards 6-1 nascar odds
3. Jimmie Johnson 6-1 nascar odds
4. Matt Kenseth 7-1 nascar odds
5. Kasey Kahne 8-1 nascar odds
6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 10-1 nascar odds
7. Tony Stewart 10-1 nascar odds
8. Greg Biffle 12-1 nascar odds
9. Jeff Gordon 15-1 nascar odds
10. Denny Hamlin 15-1 nascar odds