Tums Fast Relief 500 Qualifying Update

Martinsville Speedway -- 10/24/2010

Author: Jed Henson

Published: Sunday Oct 24 2010 8:19am

Read all of Jed Henson's articles here


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BETUS.com and Sportsbook.com.



The NASCAR Sprint Cup teams got in all three practice sessions and qualifying at Martinsville Friday and Saturday. To handicap the race, I crunched the numbers from those prelim sessions to produce initial rankings, and then I merged those rankings with the historical rankings I produced earlier this week (thus weighting the results heavily toward the initial rankings). Finally, I tweaked the results by considering starting positions, 10-lap averages during practice and the opinions of another online expert.

The results feature the usual suspects, plus one significant exception:

1. Denny Hamlin
2. Clint Bowyer
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Jamie McMurray
5. Jeff Burton
6. Jimmie Johnson
7. Marcos Ambrose
8. Ryan Newman
9. Greg Biffle
10. Kevin Harvick

I think Hamlin is the clear favorite today. He looks great in the historical data, he was fast on long and short runs in practice this week, he starts from the pole and he's got the best pit stall. Hamlin will likely put pressure on Chase leader Johnson today.

Johnson looks very good on the track as well, but he's hampered by his crummy starting position (19th). He should move forward throughout the race, provided his machine doesn't get roughed up while he's back in the pack.

Harvick, the #3 man in the Chase, also has a good looking car, but he rolls off much further back than Johnson (36th). Like Johnson, Harvick should move forward if he avoids trouble.

The significant exception? Ambrose. I hesitate ranking the 47 car so high, but I can't ignore his practice and qualifying performances, or his historical numbers. I look for Ambrose to run well today.

If you're betting today, make sure you shop around to get the best possible line on your driver(s). Picking up an extra point or two for one race may not seem like much, but it's crucial if you want to make money in the long run.

Good luck!

Jed Henson publishes the blog NASCARPredict.com. He participates in the Nascapper forums and Free NASCAR Picks Monitor under the name Tucker19.

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