TBA Race Preview

Phoenix International Raceway -- 11/14/2010

Author: Jed Henson

Published: Thursday Nov 11 2010 6:25pm

Back we go to Phoenix for the second time this season, for the second-to-last race of the year. Phoenix is a relatively short, flat track, so handicappers can group it loosely with the other short-flats on the circuit when trying to get a handle on how the race is likely to unfold.

That's what I did. First I crunched the qualifying, practice and race data from all the 2010 short-flat races, which includes, Phoenix, Martinsville, New Hampshire and Richmond. Then I crunched just the Phoenix numbers to bias the results toward that track. Finally, in my new, improved methodology, I also cranked out the loop data from the above short-flats and just the 2010 Phoenix race as well, and I added those numbers to the mix.

I came up with this top 11:

1. Jimmie Johnson
2. Jeff Gordon
3. Ryan Newman
4. Kyle Busch
5. Clint Bowyer
6. Juan Pablo Montoya
7. Joey Logano
8. A.J. Allmendinger
9. Carl Edwards
10. Jeff Burton
11. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Johnson, Gordon and Kyle Busch had great cars at Phoenix in the spring, and the numbers say they will shine again this weekend. Newman had a pretty good car and was able to pull out the win in Phoenix I.

I'm a little surprised to see Logano and Allmendinger rate so high, but that's what the numbers say.

Also, keep your eye on Dale Jr. in the prelims: The numbers place him just outside the top 10, he was strong at Phoenix in the spring (a mechanical problem hurt his finish) and he was strong at Martinsville a few weeks ago.

Stay tuned for my update following practice and qualifying.

Comment on this article.

(255 chars max)

Username:
(No HTML)

Captcha: