Samsung Mobile 500 Qualifying Update

Texas Motor Speedway -- 04/18/2010

Author: Jed Henson

Published: Sunday Apr 18 2010 6:33am

The predictability of today's race in Texas has declined substantially thanks to two factors: weather and tires.

The Weather
Rain wiped out both practice sessions yesterday and threatens the running of today's race. The elimination of practice seriously damaged our ability to identify who will run well because it chops the amount of available data in half. We have the first practice and qualifying to work with, but the first practice is typically the least valuable of all the preliminaries because the teams work on both race and qualifying setups during that session, making it hard to know if we're comparing apples to apples when looking at speed charts.

Plus, the rain has undoubtedly washed the rubber out of the track, so if the race does start today, the drivers will face a different track than they did on Friday. And as the race continues, it will change as it rubbers in.

Finally, the weather reports this morning look bad. If NASCAR does manage to start the race today, it seems fairly likely rain could pull the curtain closed before it's gone the distance, and a rain stoppage could give us a wild-card winner. Trivia question: How did Joey Logano and David Reutimann manage to get their first wins last year? Answer: Rain stoppages!

The Tire
I learned Friday the teams are running a different tire than they did at Texas last year. The teams got a little time with the new tire on Friday, but probably not enough to identify the optimum setup tweaks from last year's notes.

Summary: Add up the lack of pre-race data, the track changes, the tire change and of course the wing-to-spoiler change, and you get a pretty cloudy picture.

Handicapping Update
I liked Mark Martin and Jeff Gordon prior to practice/qualifying, but both appear to be off the pace, particularly Martin. I'm also not as high on Kurt Busch as I was.

Tony Stewart vaulted to the top of my charts on Friday when he ran second in practice and then claimed the pole. Over the 2+ years I've been scrutinizing the pre-race data, Stewart almost never looks very good. He then usually proceeds to out-perform his pre-race numbers during the actual race by a large margin—something his competitors rarely do. The fact he looked fantastic on Friday would make me really, really be high on him if all the unpredictability factors noted above weren't in play.

Jimmie Johnson also looks good, and you have to like the history that team has in making adjustments to deal with car, track and tire changes. Greg Biffle looked very good on Friday, too, and I think Kyle Busch, Clint Bowyer and Dale Earnhardt Jr. should make some noise today as well.

Here's my updated ranking, including the best betting lines I could find Saturday morning on seven sportsbooks:

1. Tony Stewart (10-1 at LinesMaker);
2. Jimmie Johnson (4.5-1 at The Greek);
3. Greg Biffle (12-1 at The Greek);
4. Kyle Busch (9.5-1 at The Greek);
5. Clint Bowyer (20-1 at The Greek);
6. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (20-1 at The Greek);

If this were a typical, relatively predictable Texas weekend, I'd love betting Stewart at 10-1. Given all the unpredictability noted above, however, I'm feeling a little gun shy.

Johnson at 4.5-1? Bleh. Biffle worth considering at 12-1. I wouldn't take Kyle Busch at 9.5-1, but Bowyer and Dale Jr. are fun longshots at 20-1, if you're in the mood.

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