Price Chopper 400 presented by Kraft Foods Qualifying Update

Kansas Speedway -- 10/3/2010

Author: Jed Henson

Published: Sunday Oct 3 2010 7:25am

As expected, the Kansas City area enjoyed excellent, consistent weather Friday and Saturday, so the NASCAR Sprint Cup teams got in all three handicapping sessions and qualifying. To handicap today's race, I crunched the numbers from those sessions to produce initial rankings, and then I merged those rankings with the historical rankings I produced earlier this week (weighting the results heavily toward the initial rankings).

Finally, I tweaked the results by considering starting positions, 10-lap averages and the opinions of another online expert. I came up with this top five:

1. Jeff Gordon
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Greg Biffle
4. Kasey Kahne
5. Kevin Harvick

In my opinion, Gordon is the clear favorite to win. He was fast in qualifying trim Friday, and fast on both short and long runs in race trim Saturday. Plus, he has an excellent starting position (3rd), and he looks great in the historical data. My money says Gordon wins today and adds some excitement to the Chase.

I've got Harvick rated down at #5, but he makes a fine sleeper today. He wasn't fast in qualifying trim and starts way back in the field (24th), but he was very strong on long runs Saturday. I suspect he will power his way up through the field and could challenge for the win.

In my preview on Thursday, I rated predictability this week a little above average, and I'm holding to that. Bettors can therefore find value in slightly weaker odds than normal.

If you are betting today, make sure you shop around to get the best possible line on your driver(s). Picking up an extra point or two for one race may not seem like much, but it's crucial if you want to make money in the long run.

Good luck!

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