Pocono 500 Race Preview

Pocono Raceway -- 06/6/2010

Author: Jed Henson

Published: Wednesday Jun 2 2010 4:00am

This week the NASCAR Sprint Cup series heads to Pocono Raceway, the 2.5-mile, triangular track in Long Pond, Pa. This track's coat-hanger shape sets it apart on the circuit, but for handicapping purposes, we can loosely group it with the other big-flat tracks (i.e., Indy, California, Michigan, Chicagoland, and Kansas) and compile a substantial amount of historical data. Generally speaking, having a large amount of historical data provides good predictability because it increases sample size, and the larger the sample size, the less impact a luck event (e.g., a blown engine) has on your analysis.

Further bolstering predicability, this week the Sprint Cup teams will follow the typical preliminary schedule: one practice and qualifying on Friday, two more practices on Saturday, and then the race on Sunday afternoon. These preliminaries and the race will all take place during the day, which means the practice/qualifying data will offer a lot more value than it would if the practices were conducted during the heat of the day but the race ran on a cool track at night. So, if the weather doesn't interfere, we'll get a lot of good current data in addition to the historical data.

Of course, the weather may interfere. At press time, Weather.com says scattered thunderstorms will roam Long Pond Thursday, Friday and Sunday, with showers on Saturday.

Handicapping Pocono
To get a big-picture view of this race, I first examined the practice, qualifying and race data from all the big-flat races last year and this year. Then I filtered out the early- and mid-season 2009 big-flat races, leaving just the recent big-flat races. Then I looked at just the two Pocono races last year, and topped it all off with the numbers from this year's lone big-flat race, California.

I put all this analysis together to compile a preliminary top 10, and then I carefully fine-tuned those rankings with my impressions of who is trending up on the big-flats, and who seems to be trending down. Here are the results:

1. Jimmie Johnson
2. Mark Martin
3. Clint Bowyer
4. Jeff Gordon
5. Juan Pablo Montoya
6. Tony Stewart
7. Kevin Harvick
8. Ryan Newman
9. Denny Hamlin
10. Kyle Busch

Once again, the Hendrick Motorsports teams look tough heading into the preliminaries. The Richard Childress Racing teams will likely make some noise as well, and I'm curious to see if the Stewart-Haas Racing teams are as strong as the historical data suggests they'll be.

If the weather cuts us a break, we should get a pretty clear picture of the contenders and pretenders on Friday and Saturday in practice and qualifying. Stay tuned for my update this weekend.

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