Pennsylvania 500 Qualifying Update

Pocono Raceway -- 08/1/2010

Author: Jed Henson

Published: Sunday Aug 1 2010 7:07am

As expected, Pocono Raceway enjoyed good weather Friday and today, allowing the NASCAR Sprint Cup teams to get in all three practices and qualifying. NASCAR handicappers therefore have good data to analyze, and that's always good for predictability. Plus, according to Jayski's Goodyear Tire Notes (scroll down to the bottom of Jayski's Pocono Race Info page), the teams are running the same tire they ran in the June race, and that's good for predictability, too, because it's one less variable the teams must consider.

However, as feared, Mother Nature is messing with Pocono today. According to Weather.com at 9:00 a.m. ET, it's currently raining at the track, and that in itself will alter the track from what the teams saw on Saturday. In addition, there's a 40% of rain hitting the track throughout the day, so there's a significant chance we'll see rain interfere with or even stop the race, and that could give us a wild-card winner.

In Wednesday's Preview, I rated Pocono II's predicability about average, but I now think it's a little below average. Bettors should therefore ensure they're getting really good odds before they lay the money down.

Handicapping Pocono II
I crunched Friday's and Saturday's practice and qualifying data to obtain baseline rankings, and then I tweaked those results with the rankings I produced on Wednesday. I further tweaked the rankings by taking into consideration each driver's starting position because as Jimmie Johnson showed in Pocono's June race, even a very good car will have trouble coming from way back in the field at Pocono. Finally, I reviewed the rankings and impressions of a couple other online experts and fine-tuned my rankings where I thought it was appropriate.

Here are my top five with the best odds I can find online this morning:

1. Jimmie Johnson (4-1 at Bodog)
2. Jeff Burton (12-1 at Linesmaker and BetUS)
3. Denny Hamlin (3.9-1 at The Greek)
4. Kevin Harvick (16-1 at Bodog)
5. Juan Pablo Montoya (11-1 at The Greek)

Johnson and Hamlin are no-brainer favorites, but I'm a little surprised to see Burton appearing this high because he typically underperforms in the preliminaries. All the Richard Childress Racing cars look strong this weekend, however: Harvick also looks great, and Clint Bowyer should have a really good car, too, though he's hamstrung by his terrible starting position (he almost crashed in qualifying, lost a ton of speed and will start 40th).

What about Tony Stewart, you ask? Yes, he's on the pole, but I'm not liking what I saw in the 14 car in race trim. Call me crazy, but I've got him rated #10 this morning.

I think profitability is iffy with the Johnson and Hamlin lines, but I like Burton at 12-1 and Harvick at 16-1. I'd avoid Montoya at 11-1.

Good luck!

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User	Comment
grippy	testing yet again lala
HotRodMike	Do you really think Jimmy Johnson can keep this up race after race? Something has to give, his nerve or is car are the most likely.
TrackRat	Looks like Greg Biffle was just a passing fad this year. He raced a good Chase, but just could not keep up the pace till the end.
TonySfan	Tony Stewart is still my favorite pick for this but I`d like to see Jimmie take this one. He`s really earned it. :D
racefan	Go Jimmie go! Hoping he wins this one one more time!
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