NASCAR Banking 500 only from Bank of America Qualifying Update

Lowe's Motor Speedway Charlotte -- 10/16/2010

Author: Jed Henson

Published: Saturday Oct 16 2010 11:26am

The NASCAR Sprint Cup teams got in all three practice sessions and qualifying at Charlotte Thursday and Friday, including an all important Happy Hour Friday evening. The Happy Hour session occurred after dark, better mirroring the track conditions the teams will face in tonight's race than the mid-day practices did.

To handicap the race, I crunched the numbers from those prelim sessions to produce initial rankings, and then I merged those rankings with the historical rankings I produced earlier this week (weighting the results heavily toward the initial rankings). Finally, I tweaked the results by considering starting positions, 10-lap averages during practice and the opinions of another online expert.

The results are pretty interesting. Several top-five regulars stumbled in the prelims, and a number of typically second-tier drivers ran really well. Check it out:

1. Mark Martin
2. Ryan Newman
3. Kyle Busch
4. Kasey Kahne
5. Carl Edwards

Martin was on my radar earlier this week, but I never imagined he'd end up being my pick to win. However, he looked fast on short runs and long runs in practice, and he claimed a good starting spot (and the accompanying pit stall) in qualifying (4th). This may well be the weekend the old man shows us he's still got some sauce.

Newman was my mid-week #2 pick, and his prelim performances were very strong. I rated Kahne #1 on Thursday, and while he was definitely good in the prelims, he looked a tick behind my top picks. Kyle Busch could easily win, and I expect to see Edwards up front tonight, too.

What about Johnson, my mid-week #3? Surprisingly, he looked relatively mediocre in the prelims (by the 48 team's standards, of course). Jeff Gordon captured the pole in qualifying, but he appeared to be pretty far off in the three practice sessions. Tony Stewart was in my top 10 Thursday and had a lot of fans among other online handicappers prior to the prelims, but he too stumbled Thursday and Friday.

If you're betting today, make sure you shop around to get the best possible line on your driver(s). Picking up an extra point or two for one race may not seem like much, but it's crucial if you want to make money in the long run.

I anticipate a wild and fun race tonight with lots of passing. If you're betting, good luck!

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