Irwin Tools Night Race Qualifying Update

Bristol Motor Speedway -- 08/21/2010

Author: Jed Henson

Published: Saturday Aug 21 2010 12:12pm

The NASCAR Sprint Cup teams got in both practices and qualifying yesterday, and it became clear during Practice 1 that this August race at Bristol will not be a simple re-run of the March race. The teams are running completely different tires on both sides than they ran in March, and it appears the change essentially rendered the teams' March notes useless. It looked like crew chiefs were doing far more than simply tweaking their March setups, and many of the drivers ran all over the track trying to find the best line. At one point during the Practice 1 telecast, viewers saw Clint Bowyer standing atop the hauler so he could observe the other drivers to see where they were running, braking, etc.

In another blow to predictability, the speed-chart data produced during the prelims proved less than wonderful. In Practice 1, for example, A.J. Allmendinger and Dale Earnhardt Jr. ran the fastest race-trim laps, but both drivers strongly disliked their cars. Junior even got into another sniping battle with his crew chief, complaining the car was `crashing every lap,` `crap` and `tight, tight, tight.` Allmendinger was so loose he spun twice. Bottom line: One fast lap does not a winning car make.

In my mid-week preview, I rated this race's predictability a bit above average, but I'm gonna downgrade that to a bit below average. Bettors can therefore work with slightly tight odds.

Handicapping Bristol II
As noted above, the data produced Friday was not as helpful as anticipated, so I performed some extra steps in my analysis today. First, I did go ahead and crunch Friday's numbers as usual, and then I merged those results with my mid-week rankings (giving more weight to Friday's results) to produce initial rankings. I then went through three rounds of tweaking those rankings: First I tweaked them as needed per the 10-lap averages produced during the practices. Then I tweaked them to reflect the drivers' starting positions (starting position is key at a shorty like Bristol). Finally, I fine-tuned them to reflect the impressions myself and another online expert gathered during the telecasts.

The results, with the best online odds I could find today:

1. Jimmie Johnson (3.25-1 at Bodog)
2. Juan Pablo Montoya (25-1 at WSEX, Bodog and BetUS)
3. Jamie McMurray (22-1 at The Greek and Bodog)
4. Jeff Burton (20-1 at BetUS)
5. Ryan Newman (22-1 at Bodog)
6. Tony Stewart (8.5-1 at The Greek)

I rated Johnson, Montoya and McMurray very high in my preview, and they still look very strong to me.

Aside from those three, though, there's been a lot of movement. Kurt Busch plunged down out of my top 10, and Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano tumbled as well. In addition, Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman have surged up into my top six.

I don't see any value in the Johnson line. I love Montoya at 25-1, and like McMurray quite a bit at 22-1. Stewart seems to be a stretch at 8.5-1, however.

If you're betting today, good luck, and strap in! It should be a fun one at the bullring.

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