Ford 400 Race Preview

Homestead-Miami Speedway -- 11/21/2010

Author: Jed Henson

Published: Thursday Nov 18 2010 7:50am

Well, race fans, it's that time: the last race of the season down at Miami at Homestead. Homestead is a 1.5-mile track with 20 degrees of banking, making it pretty similar to the so-called cookie cutter tracks at Texas, Charlotte and Atlanta (1.5 milers with 24 degrees of banking), Chicagoland (a 1.5 miler with 18 degrees of banking) and Las Vegas (a 1.5 miler with 20 degrees of banking). To handicap the race, I crunched the qualifying and practice data from the 2010 races at Las Vegas and Chicagoland, and the fall 2010 races at Texas, Charlotte and Atlanta. I then compiled the loop data from those same races and merged the results of the two analysis to come up with the below rankings.

I did not look at the 2009 race at Homestead because that race was an entire year ago, and I just can't see its data having much value. I also excluded the spring races at Texas, Charlotte and Atlanta because that older data also has diminished value, and I think that with all the other data on hand, I can be choosy (i.e., my data sample size is OK as is).

I came up with this top eight:

1. Jimmie Johnson
2. Greg Biffle
3. Carl Edwards
4. Kyle Busch
5. Jeff Gordon
6. Tony Stewart
7. Denny Hamlin
8. David Reutimann

Johnson has looked relatively vulnerable at the 1.5 milers as of late, but the numbers say you still can't bet against him. I'm really liking Biffle and Edwards and look for them to run well in the prelims Friday and Saturday.

I'm surprised to see Hamlin show up so low because he's been finishing races so well recently. He could easily shine in the prelims and jump up my rankings.

Stay tuned for my update following practice and qualifying.

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