Coca-Cola 600 Race Preview

Lowe's Motor Speedway Charlotte -- 05/30/2010

Author: Jed Henson

Published: Wednesday May 26 2010 6:07am

The Sprint Cup series remains at Charlotte Motor Speedway (CMS) following the exciting All Star race last weekend, gearing up for the long, arduous Coca Cola 600. I think this race offers those of us handicapping NASCAR a fair amount of predictability despite a couple limiting factors.

The Data
CMS is another 1.5-mile, steep-banked, D-shaped track, very similar to the other banked cookie-cutter tracks on the circuit, including Texas, Atlanta, Las Vegas and Homestead. We therefore have a good amount of historical practice, qualifying and race data to analyze for this race, including pretty current data from this year's races at Texas, Atlanta, and Las Vegas, as well as the All Star race data.

There are some caveats, however. First, the Texas data is the most recent, but it's limited due to the rain that fell during the preliminaries and a late-race crash that skewed the numbers of several top performers. Second, the All Star data offers limited value because the cars were tuned for short-run racing, and the Coke 600 favors cars tuned for the long haul.

The Weather
At press time, it appears Mother Nature will mess with us again a bit this weekend. The teams should receive warm, clear skies for Thursday's practice and qualifying, but rain will likely affect some of the practice time scheduled for Saturday, thereby limited that data. Race day should revert to warm-clear conditions.

Handicapping Charlotte
I've analyzed all the historical data from the banked cookie cutters, and I used the teams' All Star weekend performances to fine-tune my rankings. Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch top my charts. We didn't get to see what Jeff Gordon's car was like in the All Star race due to his first-lap crash, but I rate him very high anyway.

I'm also feeling good about Kurt Busch's chances. Prior to the All Star race, I would've ranked him in my top 10 (probably #7), but I think his run in the final segment of the All Star race should move him up. Not necessarily because he won the race, though. It was the way he drove away from Jimmie Johnson, who had had the dominant car to that point. It may have been just a short-run fluke, but he bears watching this week.

OK, here are my preliminary rankings:

1. Jimmie Johnson
2. Kyle Busch
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Kurt Busch
5. Greg Biffle
6. Clint Bowyer
7. Denny Hamlin
8. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
9. Kasey Kahne

Practice and qualifying should give us a clearer picture. Stay tuned for my update prior to the race.

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